Forecasting oceanographic parameters (both in surface and subsurface) at different time scales is extremely important for a wide spectrum of users ranging from the weathermen to fishermen, and from the navy to the off-shore industries. Currently, Indian National Centre for Ocean Information Services (INCOIS) is forecasting the waves in the Indian waters as well as over the Indian Ocean. Recently, INCOIS has brought up a new system for the forecasting of the dynamic and thermodynamic features of the Indian Ocean. The new Indian Ocean Forecasting System (IOFS) is the first of its kind in the country and the set-up of the system is being developed indigenously at INCOIS. Initially the 6 hourly forecasts of SST, surface currents, MLD and depth of 20oC isotherm (as an indicator of thermocline depth) will be made available for 5 days in advance.
__The IOFS Setup__
The core of the IOFS is a state-of-art ocean general circulation model (OGCM), Regional Ocean Modeling System (ROMS), developed and distributed as open source code by Rugters University, New Jersey, USA. The model is configured to simulate the observed Indian Ocean features realistically by making appropriate changes in the model parameters and source code. An optimal interpolation based data assimilation scheme for assimilating satellite measured SST data is also introduced in the model. The simulations from the model for the period of 2000-2008 are validated extensively by comparing with the observations from the in-situ platforms and satellites. Since the validation was satisfactory, the model is put on experimental forecast mode from 1st November 2009. The forecasts are also being validated on a continual basis. At present, the model is forced with the 5-day forecast data of surface wind fields and atmospheric fluxes from the atmospheric model of National Centre for Medium Range Forecast (NCMRWF), New Delhi. Accordingly, the IOFS also forecasts the oceanographic features for 5 days.
The entire procedure for the generation of the forecast is automated. A suite of software was prepared to cater the pre-processing and post-processing needs of the model simulations. This enables little manual intervention throughout the process and thereby reduces the chances of human errors. Any malfunction of the system will be intimated to the concerned persons by emails as well as through mobile phone SMSs. The present version of IOFS is capable of issuing forecast within 15 minutes of receiving data from NCMRWF. The forecast is being made available through INCOIS website. In addition, it is also disseminated through email messages and the dedicated electronic display boards installed along the coast. The raw data is available to the registered users via FTP.
__Potential users of IOFS__
In addition to the scientific community who are engaged in active research on physical oceanography of the tropical Indian Ocean, the other beneficiaries of the forecasts from IOFS are Navy and Coast Guard (to plan the operations); Shipping industry (to chart the route); offshore oil industry (for various operations); Fishing industry (for species specific advisories that make use of information on SST gradient, depth of the mixed layer etc); and the India Meteorological Department (to force the atmospheric models, that will improve the short and medium range forecasts, particularly during the monsoon season).
IOFS is being designed to cater to the specific needs of the users as interests may vary from user to user and a generalized forecast may not be sufficient for all the users. A focused research and development approach is also envisaged to support the IOFS to meet the requirements of its users. Based on the feedback from them and through focused research, the IOFS will improve further in quality and quantity of services. With the availability of High Performance Computing Facility at INCOIS, the computational infrastructure is no longer a limitation in achieving the high goals.