The trigger was from Ms Jayalalithaa herself, who sounded the poll bugle on July 8, with an improved power situation and finding the opposition parties and groups in total disarray. She directed her party-men to fan out to districts and highlight the government’s welfare schemes and other “achievements”, including the latest inauguration of the Chennai Metro rail service.

Meanwhile, the ruling AIADMK would await anxiously, even as opposition parties may be gleefully looking at, for the final disposal by the Supreme Court of an appeal against Ms Jayalalithaa’s acquittal by Mr Justice Kumaraswami of Karnataka High Court in the Disproportionate Assets case in May last. The DMK is also a party to the appeal filed by the Karnataka Government for a re-look at the asset calculations made by the Karnataka Judge. The appeal is to be heard on July 24.

Realising that his discredited DMK, with humiliating defeats in 2011 assembly and 2014 Lok Sabha polls, cannot take on AIADMK by itself, Mr Karunanidhi had been calling for a strong alliance of all Dravidian forces to reverse Ms Jayalalithaa’s “misrule”. But most parties are averse to aligning with DMK while some insist on prior power-sharing commitments. Mr Karunanidhi’s resistance to this was apparent even when his minority government (2006-2011) was kept going by the Congress without a share in office.

Any credible alliance at this stage, to take on the might of AIADMK, looks far-fetched. Tamil Nadu may also be heading for multi-alliance contests, one of which could be led by BJP, which has been making a strong pitch for electoral gains at the state level and trying to play on Tamil sentiment in several ways. The party derived comfort with one Lok Sabha seat in 2014 and even made the winner Mr Pon Radhakrishnan, a Minister of the Modi Government.

While the Congress has had more of leaders and factions than of followers, BJP has actively built up a membership base across districts and making waves about the “achievements” of the Modi Government at the Centre. The party president Mr Amit Shah is keeping a special watch for Tamil Nadu. In its game of systematically appropriating political icons for political gains, BJP has observed the birth anniversary of former Congress President K Kamaraj.

Speaking at the birthplace of Mr Kamaraj in a southern district, Union Minister Mr Venkaiah Naidu sought to liken Prime Minister Narendra Modi to Mr Kamaraj as persons coming from poor backgrounds, both committed to development, and cited for a good measure the Prime Minister’s Jan Dhan Yojana and social security schemes. As urban development minister, Mr Naidu also said 12 cities in the state would be developed as “smart cities”.

BJP leaders at the state level, especially Ms Tamilisai Soundararajan have been sharply critical of the AIADMK Government’s performance and charged both the Dravidian majors with having run corrupt regimes and brought the state into disrepute. The AIADMK is, however, confident of winning the battle by itself and may not entertain any ally even if one or two smaller parties may opt for at a later stage.

AIADMK has also moved away from the Modi Government with Ms. Jayalalithaa’s strong reservations on land and GST bills and is unlikely to extend support to a Government desperately in search of votes, especially in the Rajya Sabha at the current monsoon session.

Among non-AIADMK parties, a medley of alliances to fight AIADMK seems more likely to emerge for the next assembly elections even if attempts may be made to bring about some adjustments and compromises among contenders. The alliances could be led by DMK, BJP, DMDK or PMK, with each party wanting to have its own chief minister.

Mr M K Stalin, who is set to succeed Mr Karunanidhi for leadership, has been actively campaigning for DMK’s revival and is in desperate search of allies. DMDK leader Captain Vijaykant, who was thought to be closer earlier to NDA, is now expected to launch his party’s campaign by the end of this month.

Relatively commanding greater support at the state level, he became leader of opposition in the present Assembly. Captain Vijaykant may agree to go with BJP if he is assured of Chief Ministership in 2016.

For the PMK, which wants to be aloof and avoid both Dravidian majors, Dr Anbumani Ramadoss former Union Health Minister, has already been named the Chief Ministerial candidate. He has announced his party’s stand for “Change and Progress” towards “a new and vibrant Tamil Nadu”.

Prohibition in Tamil Nadu is also being pushed to the forefront by PMK, as an electoral issue, against the background of rapid spread of drinking evil not only among the poor farmers and workers but also women and students, and reports of hundreds of deaths from excessive use of alcohol. Dr Ramadoss said if PMK was voted to power, it would enforce prohibition on the first day. DMK leader Mr Karunanidhi has also committed his party to taking “serious measures” to implement prohibition for a social transformation.

The Tamil Nadu Congress is yet to clarify where it stands in the evolving political developments. The TNCC President Mr E V K S Elangovan, a strong critic of Jayalalithaa rule, has said his party may join an alliance in which power is shared. But the central leadership would take decisions at the appropriate time. On his forthcoming visit to Tamil Nadu, Congress Vice-President Mr Rahul Gandhi is expected to outline the party’s vision for Tamil Nadu.

A section of Congress led by Mr G K Vasan had broken away from the parent body and revived the Tamil Manila Congress wedded to revival of “Kamaraj rule”. Mr Vasan who commands a sizeable following is yet to pronounce his approach to the forthcoming elections. The Dalit party (VCK) leader Thirumavalavan for his part is trying to promote an alliance of secular forces including the Congress and the Left.

As elections draw nearer, policy issues may get a deserved place in poll rhetoric. Opposition leaders are out to pick holes in the policies and programmes of Jayalalithaa government. Mr Stalin, Dr Ramadoss, PMK founder, and MDMK of Mr Vaiko have all attacked a recent Solar power deal of AIADMK government with the Adani Group for having agreed to a generating cost well above what the same group has offered to Madhya Pradesh. (IPA Service)