For the electorate, a depressing realisation that its eventual choice will lie between political options ranging from the bad to the worst, defines the current mood.

As things stand, the ruling Trinamool Congress (TMC) enjoys certain advantages — some built-in, others fleeting — over the Left Front (LF), the Congress and the Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP) in opposition.

The TMC”s four-year plus long tenure has been something of a roller coaster ride. The State’s overall image has taken a beating, in India and abroad. Big ticket investors avoid it like the plague as of now. More worryingly, its policies have engendered a sharp, destabilising urban-rural economic divide within the state.

Yet, there can be no denying, as economist Dipankar Dasgupta recently pointed out, that its economy has still registered a slight growth, confounding doomsayers and critics. No mean achievement, during a phase of recession and stagnation at the national level.

The key to this has been a genuine effort on part of the State administration to ensure an economic empowerment of the poor, extending it down to the grassroot levels. For the first time, the State Government has published a series of illustrated booklets detailing a comprehensive list of rural development projects either complete or still in progress.

The brochure on Burdwan district presents a list of 114 projects undertaken, with investments ranging from Rs 44 lakhs to Rs 230 crore. There are illustrations of 90 projects either totally or partially complete. The projects themselves are basic, including the construction of school buildings , bridges, extensions, laying/upgrading the rural road network, extending water supply, setting up marketing hubs, laying power lines, irrigation projects and so on. In addition, 24 other projects being implemented are listed without accompanying photographs.

It goes without saying that such projects help improve rural living standards and make a difference in rural areas, apart from generating local employment. Ironically, most of the money comes from the central Government. ’Yet there is no doubt that the TMC will certainly run away with the credit for carrying out the work. The state BJP has no organisation to explain how much Delhi is doing for West Bengal,’ says Tapan Ghosh, Burdwan-based journalist.

Ghosh admits that there are the usual in-fights and squabble among the TMC leaders and groups in Burdwan, which cause occasional violence and corruption. These get wide coverage in the media as well. ‘But people also recall that under the Left front, especially between 2007 and 2011, work in the villages had come to a standstill. And there was much corruption, delays and nepotism during the LF rule as well. So the LF cannot take advantage, the BJP remains weak, while the Congress is on the ropes. It is very much advantage TMC in Burdwan,’ says Ghosh.

When one is informed that the Government is in the process of publishing similar brochures for all the districts, one begins to understand how the TMC has succeeded in creating a strong rural political base. During the 34 years it ruled in Bengal, the LF had never published such detailed official reports of work carried in the districts.

This writer has heard more or less similar positive accounts of the work done in the villages from people living in the East and West Midnapore, Howrah and Hooghly districts as well. Their complaints regarding an absence of power supply, bad roads, poor health and educational facilities and lack of employment, are certainly less strident now.

Over 85per cent of the villagers in Bengal are currently assured of buying subsidized rice at Rs 2 or Rs 3. Over 30 lakh girls have received free bi cycles and another 10 lakh will get theirs soon. Better quality midday meals have become more regular and there are scholarships for minority students.

These explain partially why the TMC has swept the 2014 Lok Sabha polls, the civic polls and most by-elections in rural areas, although its cadres also resorted to violence against opponents in pockets.

Even Chief Minister Mamata Banerjee’s worst critics cannot deny her the credit of galvanizing the district administration, not least through her frequent dreaded visits all over the state. It is common knowledge that habitually somnolent administrators, from the District Magistrates to the BDOs, make sure that they meet their assigned targets so as not to offend their maverick Chief Minister.

Considering that nearly 200 out of the 294 Assembly seats are broadly rural, the TMC will enjoy a certain advantage, come 2016. However, as the recent Siliguri civic elections showed, its apple cart could be upset if the LF, the Congress and the BJP come together in any alliance against it. In fact, even an alliance between the LF and the Congress, which on present evidence cannot be ruled out, could pose a serious threat to the ruling party.

Most observers agree that in a fair election, the TMC could win around 36 per cent of the aggregate vote, although through intimidation and the cynical manipulation of the administration it enjoys the support of around 40 per cent of the people on paper. Occasional pre-poll surveys also confirm this. The LF”s share has come down from around 41 per cent in 2011 to around 22-25 per cent now, while that of the Congress has remained somewhat static, between 8 to 10 per cent. The BJP’s share fluctuates between 12 and 16 per cent.

While LF-Congress combined vote share on paper is still less than that of the TMC, there is no doubt that the urban disillusionment and anger against the poor performance of the ruling party may significantly influence a section of suburban and some rural voters as well. The miserable failure of the TMC to attract a single major industry, the closure of 15 major and countless smaller industries, causing much impoverishment among organised workers, its abysmal failure in generating jobs for the educated unemployed, its shocking misuse of the police force, are major negatives.

The TMC obviously banks on the division of votes among the three opposition formations and parties to see it through in the 2016 polls. But the Congress-LF tie up, which has not been finally ruled out by either side, could snag its efforts. Also, the BJP at the centre could make things tough for the TMC through its handling of the Saradha Chit Fund scam, where the complicity of top TMC leaders is common knowledge. (IPA Service)