Despair is writ large the way top managers of our economy, notably Finance Minister Mr Arun Jaitley, trots out extenuating factors like political obstructions to the reform agenda, particularly GST. He keeps harping on continual RBI rate cuts as if it is the clinching factor holding up growth. With inflation “conquered' and subsidies effectively controlled, besides some positive factors, he hopes RBI would exercise its “mature judgement”.

But the harsh fact remains that the essential ingredients to growth and macro-economic improvement are not in place, some feeble sectoral attempts on infrastructural side notwithstanding (coal auctions etc). There is no visible diminution in the level of structural constraints. However, the Finance Ministry asserts the economy could expand faster and risks to growth mitigated if interest rates are lowered.

Stalled projects, land acquisition, stressed banking system, a distinct lowering of business confidence and elusive investment revival altogether make up a bleak picture mid-2015, as the economy struggles for a solid recovery. No doubt, the continuing global slump in oil and other commodity prices benefits India, major oil importer, by way of containing g fiscal and current deficits.

But there are more negative developments in global economy like China's devaluation, a palpable slowdown in the hitherto better-performing US economy, and likely timing of US Fed rate increase, widely expected to start in September. Spill-overs from these developments could be widespread, according to IMF

Chinese authorities dismiss claims that yuan devaluation, now a day-to-day readjustment vis-a-vis the US dollar, would lead to a further plunge in metal and other commodity prices and that it was also triggering competing depreciations in other countries. But China would do whatever necessary to safeguard its exports and take care of its 7 per cent growth set for 2015.

Emerging market currencies are currently going through the spill-over effects of China's devaluation and these are likely to linger on for the rest of the year. Though the rupee is also undergoing significant depreciation, India is unlikely to regain its lost export momentum under NDA dispensation. Cheaper and larger imports from China would also dwarf its competitiveness.

Mr Jaitley justifiably claims success in substantially reducing fuel subsidies from lower oil prices and market-driven pricing of both petrol and diesel while limiting benefits to the targeted groups through the Direct Benefits Transfer (DBT) of the much-maligned predecessor regime (UPA).

As for the outlook at this point of time, Mr Jaitley counts on agriculture escaping the full impact of a deficient monsoon (10 per cent so far) although the below-normal monsoon has been cited by the Moody's Investors Service to lower GDP growth to 7 per cent from its earlier 7.5 per cent estimate for current fiscal year.

International rating agencies are sceptical of any bounce for the Indian economy occurring this year, given all its domestic weaknesses and gridlocks. Rather than doing what is eminently necessary at political level to get through with reform legislation, Prime Minister Narendra Modi, has directed his Ministers and partymen to fan out and carry out a political offensive against the 'anti-growth Congress'.

This is how BJP may consider as the best way of combating the Congress and salvaging the reputation of the Prime Minister and his Government as harbingers of development and growth, which are becoming increasingly elusive, at a time when perceptions are gaining ground of the distance between Modi Government promises and fulfilment.

As for growth and development, Mr Jaitley sees 'green shoots' of recovery in the higher indirect tax collection, industrial production steadying somewhat and increasing growth in services. But all this would be of no avail for jobs and he conveniently shifts his sights for 9-10 per cent growth to generate jobs and end poverty over the long haul.

Mr Jaitley favours sector after sector being opened up by India completely for global investment, and that is 'the direction the present policy regime of Government has moved'. We have not been told of any quantified impact of all the policy liberalisations by raising FDI cap, in some cases, to 100 per cent over the last 14 months.

Having seen the chronic setback in bank lending, Mr Jatiley has now come up with a new banking reform plan with capital infusions over a period and also to move more in the direction of autonomy for banks and altering the management structure for state-owned assets which would entrusted to a Bank Board, to begin with.

These may involve important amendments in present banking legislation. No wonder Mr Jaitley is also toying with the idea of making some of his legislative proposals as 'money bill' to edge out Congress opposition in Rajya Sabha, in the light of experience over reform bills.

Meanwhile, Government's amnesty window for black money (July 1 to Sept 30). has not evoked expected response in the first two months, unlike the 'voluntary disclosure' schemes of an earlier era .It remains to be seen how a prestige-bound promise of Modi Government to root out black money = one of its major poll promises in 2014 - works out finally. (IPA Service)