The time table drawn out for the campaign by the Prime Minister Narendra Modi for next two months in the state clearly indicates that he would control the command of the campaign in the state. he has already given an indication that he would keep the issue of development as the central theme of his intense campaign with a slight difference. He message will be the development would depend and materialize only if the upper castes hold the levers of power. But the classes that were holding power levers for the past two and half decades have not driven the wheels of the state to reach forefronts in the national economy.
The deprived classes commanded the state administration since 1990 but the state is still counted among the Bimraru states. The environment minister Prakash Jawdekar ferreted out the World Bank Report on the decade of economic conditions in India to substantiate his claim that only BJP ruled states, Maharashtra, Jharkhand and Haryana were on fore fronts in norms of progress prescribed by the World Bank. These three states came under the BJP rule for less than a year but survey deals with the situation that transpired in a decade.
Jawdekar also claimed that Bihar made progress when the BJP was partner in the coalition government headed by Nitish Kumar but it went to dogs since the BJP broke away. Again Jawdekar conveniently overlooked the vital fact that during the period Jitan Ram Majhi was chief minister who was now an alliance partner with BJP. It appears that the BJP leaders intend to depend on shallow for their campaign that may affect the intensity of the Modi campaign style. They also overlook the changes that Nitish Kumar effected in the last five years that cannot be quantified by statistics.
He restored the confidence of people of Bihar in their glorious past with revival of the Nalanda University. He was dealing with the most difficult situation as the most of wealth of natural resources with the state went away with Jharkhand, a rich part of Bihar separated in the partition during the Vajpayee regime. He had inherited economy that had no substantial industrial activities or natural resources to depend on. Yet he kept the pace of economic development over 11 per cent for the last three years when he was in command.
In fact shortage of land less labour to work on farms in Punjab was mainly attributed to reversal of trend of Bihar landless seeking employment outside the state for decades. Raj Thakaray politics collapsed in the last assembly election as symbols of his hate politics, Jobseekers from Bihar had begun to vanish from scenes in Maharashtra for three years. They would not have left their assured jobs to come back to Bihar without hopes of finding living in their state. Ground realities are different from the statistical data unleashed on media.
The BJP faces a major dilemma for evolving its strategies that would retain its traditional support base and yet bring more from the other backward classes. Its initial intents were to contest the election for formation of the BJP government and had also chosen the slogan to indicate it. Abki Bar Bhajapki Sarkar was the original slogan despite protest from the NDA partners. Even in distribution of seats to three partners, it has kept the option of the clear majority to the BJP so that its government was not exposed to blackmails by partners that are now retained with realization that without votes coming from the OBCs and the Dalit, it was not hope to displace the OBC realm in the state.
The party is also in two minds on naming the candidate for the post of chief minister after the election. It sensed a danger to its objective of expanding its vote base. By naming an OBC leader it would have upset the sensitivities of the upper castes that now itch for a chief minister from among them. Naming an upper caste leader would destroy changes on mobilizing the needed vote from outside the traditional banks. Hence the best policy was to skip the issue for decision after the election. It paid a heavy price by naming the chief ministerial candidate for the Delhi assembly polls before the elections. Its sure victory was snatched away from its hands
The inherent crisis within the BJP strategy is whether or not to allow the Bihar to come to the BJP as it would signify as victory of the new agenda of the Prime Minister. The victory to the Prime Minister in the Bihar battle would make him beyond the access to the Sangh Parivar. As it were he was already not under control as he prefers silence to pin pricks.
The OBCs stand to lose their political gains of the last 25 years in they allow emergence of the BJP that in other words mean restoration of the reins in hands of the upper caste. The past experience of accepted dominance of upper castes would deter them from straying away. But no one can underestimate ability of NaMo who has a larger stake in victory of undoing what he lost in the Delhi elections. The power holders have fight to hold on to what they gained and NaMo is fighting for the battle within. His victory would also spell end of the Congress.
BJP in Dilemma over Evolving its Strategies in Bihar
Vijay Sanghvi - 2015-09-23 12:52
The Bihar assembly elections come as a major political challenge after the unprecedented Lok Sabha elections that veered the direction of Indian politics. Assembly elections were held in five states, Maharashtra, Haryana, Jharkhand, Kashmir and Delhi. But they were clashes between two political thoughts that dominated Indian political scenes for six decades. The electoral battle in Bihar is different in nature and content as the upper castes are seeking to drive out the deprived classes from power corridors that they have been clutching to for two and half continued decades. The Deprived class with the Dalits and the minorities standing by them are seeking to retain their hold. Thus nature of the battle is negative of keeping the other out.