The situation has given rise to two questions: Will there be political realignments before the Punjab Assembly elections which are 15 months away? If yes, in what way such realignments are likely to be influenced by Bihar polls outcome? Although it is hazardous to answer the question given the history of Punjab politics volatility, yet it may be worth trying to answer the question by analyzing the present state of Punjab’s mainstream parties.

Old habits, they say, die hard. The traditionally factionalism-hit Congress stands divided between the former Punjab chief minister Capt. Amarinder Singh and the PPCC chief Pratap Singh Bajwa groups. There is, at present, no other Congress leader of Punjab who enjoys the level of popular support Amarinder Singh does as demonstrated by the massive response his public rallies have been getting.

Notwithstanding the strong anti-incumbency wave against the Akali-BJP government in 2012, the Congress lost the assembly elections mainly because of Amarinder Singh’s over-confidence, complacency and his inaccessibility. What had also contributed to the Congress defeat and Akali-BJP alliance’s victory was Parkash Singh Badal’s personal pull among the masses and his decision to take his party’s command into his own hands. He apparently feared that Amarinder Singh’s commanding of PCC and his own nephew Manpreet Singh Badal’s exiting the Akali Dal would cause political and electoral damage to the party in the elections

Although the Congress high command has been loudly claiming that it would soon resolve the factional disputes in its Punjab unit, it has so far failed to do so. The main reason is the habitual lay back attitude of Rahul Gandhi and his incapability to handle party’s problems and attempts to build a second rung of leadership by ignoring the senior party leaders.

After his return from his 56-day sabbatical he had shown signs of maturity in handling political and organizational issues. But he seems to have again reverted to his immature ways of functioning. His poor judgement of men had first led to his appointing some of the PCCs presidents including those of Punjab and Haryana who have limited mass base. Now he has started functioning as a recruitment commission to select second rung of leaders in the states. According to a popular English Daily, Rahul has mandated that “aspiring party workers who want to make it to the big league will have to clear a 30-minute interview with him.” He earlier made such a move in the Youth Congress but without much success. These exercises were undertaken by ignoring the senior and experienced party leaders. This also proved to be a major contributing factor in escalating factionalism in the party.

Now when the Congress is facing crucial Bihar assembly poll, Rahul has again absented himself by going to USA “to attend a conference”. It is not without reason that the realist Sonia Gandhi has again avoided her son’s much expected elevation to the party’s top post.

Nehru-Gandhi family has for long been criticized for promoting dynastic politics. For the past some years, most other parties, particularly the regional ones, have followed suit with a vengeance. Punjab’s ruling Badals have outclassed them all by imposing their extended family’s rule in the state in which the BJP is their coalition partner.

It is in this backdrop that the Akali-BJP 2007-2015 rule needs to be examined. The party’s functioning during the period had witnessed two developments. One was when Parkash Singh Badal handed over the stewardship of the party and the government to his son Sukhbir Singh. The other has been the growing intra-party rivalries and feuds, particularly in the party’s lower ranks.

Because of the threat of the Congress regaining power in 2012, Badal took back from Sukhbir Singh the reins of running the government. Now when the 2017 Assembly elections are only 25 months away, Badal seems to be again handing back the responsibility of running the government to his son. This seems to be for two reasons. Due to the health reasons and ageing factor Badal perhaps does not think he would be able to undertake strenuous poll campaign. The next few months would confirm if this presumption proves to be a fact.

The state of the Punjab BJP is pitiable. Its leadership is plagued with group rivalries which have percolated to even lower levels. The party’s frosty relations with its senior ruling partner are also often reflected by occasional defiance by some of the bureaucrats towards even some senior BJP ministers.

However, despite the BJP’s intra-party problems and inter-party irritants between the coalition partners, their electoral compulsions will force the two alliance partners to fight the 2017 Assembly elections jointly.

The AAP, which had swept the Delhi Assembly elections and won all its four Lok Sabha seats from Punjab, has been in disarray. Because of AAP chief minister Arvind Kejriwal’s faulty functioning, the party stands vertically divided with its two of the four Punjab MPs having already revolted. If Kejriwal is not able to set things right it may mark the beginning of disintegration of AAP which will be an unhealthy development for democracy.

That there will be post-Bihar polls realignments in Punjab politics looks certain. The question will be what form such realignments take. If the RJD-JD(U)-Congress united front wins, Punjab’s opposition parties may repeat Bihar by, covertly or overtly, joining hands to oppose the Akali-BJP alliance. But in case the BJP wins Bihar, Punjab’s opposition parties may witness desertions leading to new political alignments in the state.

This will mark the beginning of fresh volatile phase of Punjab politics. (IPA Service)