It is also noteworthy that India has overtaken China to be the fastest growing economy, which meant the focus for foreign investment will get more pronounced towards India. China is expected to slowdown to 6.8 per cent this year and further to 6.3 per cent next year. This only corroborates experts view that India will be the most attractive destination for foreign investment as other emerging economies are faltering.
Emerging market economies are grappling with declining commodity prices and growing volatility in financial markets, IMF said. But falling commodity prices will help India to a large extent. India imports 80 per cent of its crude oil requirement. Falling oil prices will reduce India's import bill as well as result in huge saving on oil subsidy bill. This will provide much needed headroom to step up public expenditure as well as containing fiscal deficit.
India's oil, food and fertiliser subsidies accounted for 2.5 per cent of GDP two years ago and it has come down to 1.6 per cent of GDP. Also cash transfer of subsidy on cooking gas into bank accounts of beneficiaries has helped to plug leakage in cooking gas subsidy of Rs 19,000 crore in one year. Also extension of this direct benefit transfer on subsidised food grains to poor will help further savings on subsidy bill. These systemic changes will release more money for public investment as well as reining-in on fiscal deficit. India's fiscal deficit has already come down to around 4 per cent of GDP last year.
With India having huge infrastructure deficit, the falling global commodity prices of oil, steel, coal and the like will lower the cost of building new infrastructure. India expects to invest $1 trillion on infrastructure in the next 4-5 years. Already several foreign investors are waiting to invest in the sector. Besides pension funds in US and Canada with over $600 billion are waiting for opportunity to provide long-term funding. This opportunity is available now only in India particularly with government embarking upon massive investment in ports, airports, railways, energy including renewable and clean energy.
IMF said falling commodity prices will help India because it a net commodity importer and also in controlling inflation, Gian Maria Milesi-Ferretti, deputy director of the research department at IMF, told a new conference at the Peruvian capital Lima recently. She said after the release of the bi-annual World Economic Outlook at the IMF's annual meeting.
Milesi-Ferretti asserted that India will also benefit from the recent policy reforms and consequent pick up in investment. The sharp fall in inflation, help ed by lower oil and agricultural commodity prices has created space for further monetary policy easing. Lowering of interest rates will help in pushing up consumer demand, thereby encouraging fresh investment in consumer goods and automobiles and so on.
There is already evidence on pick up in foreign direct investment. Statistics show India attracted more foreign direct investment in green field projects at $31 billion in first six months of 2015-16. India has now become the largest recipient of foreign direct investment in green field projects in the world overtaking China and US. China received $28 billion FDI in green field projects in the same period while US $27 billion.
India's Prime Minister Narendra Modi's recent visit to United States, particularly Silicon Valley and German Chancellor Angela Merkel's recent visit to India have resulted more commitment from foreign investors. The investments are expected pour in in start-ups in information technology, Defence Production, Renewable energy and manufacturing. These visits are expected to give a boost to Prime Minister's Make-in India, Digital India and skill development campaign.
India-US annual trade is now expected to grow five-fold to $500 billion in the next five years. This also meant manifold increase in investment in India. The IMF projections has only substantiated India's upbeat mood on its growth prospects in the coming years. India will now become engine of global growth when other major economies are faltering. (IPA Service)
INDIA RIGHT TO ASSERT ITS GROWTH STORY
IMF DATA PREDICTS ROBUST STINT IN 2015-16
K.R. Sudhaman - 2015-10-10 10:39
The International Monetary Fund earlier this week came out with its growth forecast for various countries, which said India will remain the World's fastest growing major economy at 7.3 per cent in 2015-16. This may be marginally lower than its earlier projection of 7.5 per cent for this financial year. But the significant aspect is that India will accelerate its growth rate to 7.5 per cent next fiscal year while all other major economies are expected to slowdown.