This has forced the leadership to make a strategic shift in the style and approach for campaign. Initially the party chief Amit Shah had evolved the strategy to attack Lalu Prasad and harp on the possibility of “Jungle Raj 2”. The party had expected to make a huge gain out of this. Shah had also made it absolutely clear that the star campaigner would be Narendra Modi and the state leaders would play the second fiddle. But the voting trend during the 1st and 2nd phase of the polling belied their expectations and made it explicit that the strategy failed miserably.

Earlier, in an apparent bid to woo the Yadav voters, Modi tried to identify himself with the aspirations of the Yaduvanshis of Bihar and consistently targeted Lalu Yadav. But this backfired. Instead of deserting Lalu, the Yadavs of Bihar rallied round him. For Yadavs of Bihar, Lalu imbibes their aspiration. Supreme boss of RSS Mohan Bhagwat further strengthened his grip on Yadavs by calling for a review of the reservation policy. With this, BJP’s mission to win over Yadavs was shattered. In fact, this remark resurrected a 1995-like situation in Bihar when Janata Dal had emerged triumphant in “Mandal versus Kamandal” politics.

The grand alliance managed to spread the word throughout the State and polarised the SC, EBC and the deprived classes against the NDA, which sealed its fate. No amount of clarification by Modi and Shah could make the people believe them.

Now in the changed strategy the main focus of attack would be on Nitish Kumar. The BJP has decided to raise “micro issues” targeting Nitish. Lalu would be no more the focus of attack. Attacking Lalu has simply consolidated the Yadavs behind him. Earlier the alliance partners and their leaders were pariahs. In the changed situation, they have also started getting respect. They are now getting prominence in its war-room strategies. They are also asked to go for “aggressive” campaigning against rivals in the next three phases of poll. Suddenly an attempt is being made to bring Nitish’s brand of growth and development under peoples’ scrutiny. Questions are being put to Nitish: “Is this your definition of good governance? … What right have you got to talk about rule of law in Bihar?”

In fact on October 12, the BJP leadership had come to know that everything was not politically correct. Even while poling for the first phase was underway in 49 constituencies, Narendra Modi was incomplete command and was addressing meetings in neighbouring constituencies. But by evening the scenario abruptly changed. The urgency to change the track was visible. During the next four phases of the election Modi was to address not less than 20 public meetings. However it transpired that now he would address only four to five meetings.

Even before the electoral process was formally unveiled an impression was created in the mind of the voters that Bihar election would decide the future of the country as well of Modi. In this backdrop sudden decision of Modi not coming to Bihar for campaigning has in fact been quite intriguing. In the evening of October 12, leaders of the state BJP revealed that the scheduled public meetings of Modi have been cancelled. Significantly, he did not come to Bihar to address any rally coinciding with the second phase election held on October 16.

This revelation was quite surprising. How could BJP drop its star campaigner? From the beginning, even before the elections were announced, the BJP was banking on Modi for winning the elections. Not only Modi’s programme was curtailed, in a knee-jerk reaction his face and image was also removed from the billboards and cut outs. So far they carried only the photos of Modi and Amit Shah. New posters, banners and cutouts displaying the faces and images of senior state BJP leaders, Sushil Modi, CP Thakur, Ashwani Choubey, Hukumdeo Narayan Yadav replaced the old ones. The names and photos of the alliance partner leaders like Ram Vilas Paswan of Lok Janshakti Party, UpendraKushwaha of the Rashtriya Lok Samata Party and Jitan Ram Manjhi of Hindustani Awam Morcha (Secular) have found place in new bill boards and posters

The insiders nevertheless come out with two reasons; first, the upper caste people disliked his self-boasting style and use of barbs and derogatory words against his opponents. His jibes were disliked even by his party men. Common people also questioned, how could a prime minister devote his time and energy in a state election ignoring his responsibility to govern the country?

The overexposure of the star campaigner Modi has not gone down well with the RSS leaders. The RSS leaders were not comfortable with Modi and Amit Shah’s campaigning. Modi could not balance the RSS diktat and feelings of the people. If the insiders are to be believed the second reason has been his inability to follow the RSS directives verbatim on some communally sensitive issues. His stand on cow and beef was not in conformity to the Sangh line. The Sangh leadership held the notion that Modi could not send a clear message to the voters on these issues.

So far the main thrust of the campaigning was to project Modi and his programme and policies. The two slogans which got wide currency were Ab ki Baar, Modi Sarkar (this time Modi government) and “Badaliye Sarkar, Badaliye Bihar” (change the government, change Bihar). Now the new bill boards and banners carry different message; they have been changed. Now it appeals to the people; “Vikas ki hogi tej rafter, Jab kendra-rajya mein ek sarkar (development will take place when the same government is in power at the Centre and in the State).

The upper caste feudal lords or urban middle class subscribing to the BJP’s bashing of Nitish may not like to endorse Nitish’s development achievements simply for the reason that he has joined hands with Lalu, but the rest of the population those who actually matter in elections are reluctant to accept the BJP jibes and accusations. It has been quite interesting to listen people analyzing the electoral scene and choices: “ Of course, Nitish has joined hands with Lalu who has a bad track record of development, but the fact cannot be denied that no chief minister has done this nature and amount of development which Nitish had done”. Women cutting across the class and caste line also endorse this view. They feel safer and empowered in the regime of Nitish.

Earlier the messages focused on the Modi’s model of growth and good governance. But now the leadership has been offering freebies; loan on zero per cent interest for agriculture, a colour TV for every Dalit and Mahadalit family, five decimal land each to the homeless and a pair of dhoti-saree to every poor family. The leadership is not revealing from the money would come; the source of revenue. There is a feeling in the party circle that this new approach will have some impact on poor. But the JD(U) has been quick to rebut. It says that the BJP has been promising bribe to the voters. Advertisements having text “Bhajapa ka saath, Sabka Vikas (with BJP, development of all) have started appearing in the newspapers. It reiterated the promises and offers made by the Bihar leader Sushil Modi; free scooters to 5,000 talented girl students to Rs. one lakh to those unemployed for opening a small shop. Nevertheless the party leaders insist that Modi would address nearly 40 poll meetings during the next 12 days. (IPA Service)