The unpredictable psyche and behaviour of the Bihar people has created lot of consternation in the political circle, particularly in the BJP. Though the BJP campaign from the beginning had targeted Lalu Yadav and his 15 year rule of mis-governance, it failed to have much impact. Even the allegation that Nitish had surrendered to Lalu for the sake of power failed to impress the people.

People will wonder if Nitish would have done better on his own. However, it is more likely that whatever seats the grand alliance gets, Nitish might have got even less without Lalu. Nitish has a very small caste base of his own, and besides, non-BJP votes would be divided between Lalu and Nitish. Muslim voters would have been divided.

The party was forced to make tactical shift after the polling in the earlier phases. The turnout of the women voters has panicked the BJP leadership. Though for public consumption they have been reiterating that the party would get two-third majority, the reality is quite different. The party strategists could realize that their attack on Nitish has simply refurbished his image of “sushasanbabu” (provider of good governance). What added to his image is the impression that a person who is not performing his job of prime minister, was simply devoting his energy and time to ensure defeat of Nitish. Moreover Narendra Modi descending in the wrestling arena pushing aside the state leaders was not well received by the voters. What really backfired was Modi’s nasty jibes and barbs against Nitish and Lalu.

The change of tactics primarily owes to the indecisiveness of the electorate on the issue of voting for Nitish and the grand alliance. Even the opinion polls predicting a clear win for the NDA, point to the bare fact that he is the most popular chief minister and people repose immense faith in him. This perception is enough to influence the free and floating votes which in fact decide the nature of the wins. For BJP this scenario certainly does not augur well.

Except for the upper caste voters, people in Bihar have good things to say about Nitish Kumar. A bewildered BJP even opted for a shift in the tactics. The confusion is so acute that the BJP has to revise its tactics half way, after two phases of the election. In a tactical shift the BJP instead of attacking Nitish and his claim of developing Bihar, has been seeking a clarification from him whether he would be able to keep his promises of reaching the development to the door step of the poor people, rural and urban alike, with RJD chief Lalu Yadav there on the board to prioritise the mode of development and decide the agenda.

BJP president Amit Shah deploying all the Union Ministers in Bihar for electioneering has in fact raised the stature of Nitish in the eyes of the people. They tell: “the way Modi and Amit have been marshalling their ammunitions against Nitish it simply reinforces the view that he is indeed a leader who can challenge Modi. Else there is no reason that so many leaders and so much of money would have to be spent in Bihar”.

Undeniably Modi and Shah’s move to show Nitish in bad frame has impaired the BJP prospect. Probably Nitish would not have attained a bigger size if Modi had exercised restrain. Before the formal announcement of the elections, the mood in the urban areas was against Nitish for the misdemeanor of Lalu’s regime. It was the rule of terror and the nightmare of oppression by goons close to Lalu and his brother-in-laws that had forced a large number of people, especially from the upper caste, to migrate to Jharkhand which was created in 2000.

Urban middle class suffers with Lalu syndrome. This class is yet to forget the Lalu rule. Obviously their abomination to resurgence of Lalu rule could be understood. But at the same time their appreciation for Nitish’s governance is to be viewed in the proper perspective. The people of Bihar, particularly from the urban areas, are in the state of worst confusion. They hold that Nitish would have trounced Modi if he had faced him on his own. But they are mistaken. Realpolitik is not guided by the emotions and sentiments.

In fact the BJP has been trying to exploit this ambivalence of the people. The BJP has redrawn its tactics. It has now focused on raising “micro issues” in its advertisements in newspapers and billboards targeting Nitish instead of Lalu Yadav. Ironically it was after the late realization that attacking Lalu was proving to be counter- productive the BJP changed the track. None can deny that BJP and Modi resurrected Lalu and brought him to back centre stage.

If the BJP would not have played the caste card and tried to win over the EBC and dalits during the 2014 Lok Sabha elections, Nitish might not have preferred to float the grand alliance. It was formed only after Mujzaffarpur assembly rally of Modi where he heaped casteist jibes and barbs on Lalu and Nitish. Modi had called Nitish's DNA poor, he lambasted Lalu as champion of jungle raj. Even during the assembly elections BJP banked on caste-social engineering rather than depending on Modi’s performance and achievements. In fact The BJP and Modi tried their best to split the grand alliance and strain the relation between Nitish and Lalu. But their strategy did not work.

BJP leadership would not agree but the fact remains that ebullient Modi’s think tank did not realize the volatility of the caste politics. True enough their dependence on macho image of Modi simply backfired. Instead of helping Modi’s mission it simply resurrected the Mandal spirit. The BJP’s effort consolidated the Yadav vote bank in favour of Lalu in the first three phases.” The more the BJP attacked the alliance, the more resolute the Nitish-Lalu compact became. (IPA Service)