The situation took a turn after the party’s successive debacles in Delhi and Bihar. The results of Bihar elections have shown that the party needs to expand and cultivate its base in a sustainable manner. In 2010 Assembly polls, BJP increased its own tally to 91 seats in in partnership with Nitish Kumar’s JD(U) which roped in 115 seats. Thus BJP and JD(U) could form a government in the house of 243 seats. The combination of upper castes, Kurmis and other OBCs and some Muslims bounced BJP-JD(U) back to power. Lalu’s RJD had to content itself with only 22 seats. BJP then contested for 102 seats, won 81 seats, lost deposit in 2 seats. Its partner JD(U) contested for 141 seats, won 115 seats, lost deposit in one seat. Though BJP then contested for lesser seats than JD(U) it could garner 39.56% votes, while its partner JD(U) lesser at 38.77% votes.

At the time of general elections to Parliament, BJP-JD(U) alliance broke and BJP had to ally Paswan’s Lok Janshakti Party (LJP) which has a base among dalits and got 21.78% votes. It also allied with the breakaway factions of JD(U) like Upendra Kushwa’s Rashtriya Lok Samta Party (RLSP) representing some backward castes. Nitish’s JD(U) and Lalu’s RJD contested polls separately. The result was that BJP secured 22 seats and its allies LJP 2 and BLSP 3 out of the total 40 seats. RJD was reduced to 4 and JD(U) 2.

Parliamentary elections, when view separately, was a different ball game. Modi wave was at its peak. In parliamentary election the voting pattern is slightly different fro elections to state assembly, where local issues and sectoral identity prevail more.

In the recent polls to the state assembly that followed RJD, JD(U) and the Congress formed Maha Gatbandhan (Grand Alliance). BJP formed alliance with LJP, RLSP and the breakaway faction of JD(U) represented by Jitan Ram Manjhi’s Hindustani Awam Morcha (HAM) representing Mahadalits

Going by simple mathematical projections, one could have rightly expected JD(U)- RJD-Congress Alliance would have an edge with 74.45% votes in the last assembly polls. The BJP and LJP together had 61.34% vote share. This showed that BJP and its alliance partners should have done more to ensure a victory, But while BJP’s campaign in wooing voters was in full swing, problems erupted with the RSS chief Mohan Bhagwat saying in an interview to the mouthpiece Panchjanya that reservation quota given to backward castes and scheduled castes needs to be reviewed. He repeated this demand again at a meeting in Gorakhpur.

This sent shivers in the camps of backward castes and dalits. Both Lalu and Nitish wasted no time in encashing on Bhagwat’s statement further strengthening the public about BJP being an upper caste party. There is also a public perception that BJP is driven by RSS. Prime Minister Modi, however, tried to clarify his party’s policy on the issue, but it was too late in the fourth phase of poll campaign. His clarification was aimed at consolidation the Hindu vote bank by including upper castes, backwards and dalits. He vehemently said that the present reservation quota for backwards and dalits would stay. He accused Nitish and Lalu of planning to give a part of the dalit and backward’s cake to Muslims. But it was too late. Nitish and Lalu had scored on the point.

Keeping in view the differences between Kurmis represented by Nitish and Yadavs represented by Lalu, the poll manager of Maha Gatbandhan, Prasant Kishor advised the two leaders to address rallies separately.

BJP could not break Yadav-Muslim alliance. Major part of backward castes and dalits shifted to Maha Gatbandhan. Thus the National Democratic Alliance consisting of BJP, LJP, BSLP and HAM could not retain the gains it had achieved in 2010 assembly polls and Lok Sabha elections in 2014. Even the dalit parties like LJP could secure only 2 seats and HAM only one seat. The RSLP represent the backward caste could get only 2 seats. BJP’s vote share scalded down to 24.4% - of course the largest vote percentage by a single party. But it is no satisfaction as BJP contested for the largest number of seats – 140. Its score turned out to be only 53. The NDA’s total tally was 58 as against 178 for Maha Gatbandhan.

Things could have turned out better for NDA had Bhagwat not made a damaging statement in midst of the polls.

Another thing is that Modi’s development agenda did not reach at the ground level. The mega programmes like Make in India, Clean India, Digital India and others have long gestation period and not designed to give immediate benefits. Even the programmes like Jan Dhan Yojana and MUDRA Bank, that were designed for immediate benefits, was not propagated to the people at grassroots level. Comparatively the Maha Gatbandhan campaigners went from door to door with Nitish’s development programmes.

However, Modi government has designed a programme that would give immediate benefits to the youth at grassroots level. It is Skill India. But nothing much has been done in this area. India faces severe shortage of well trained skilled workers. Only 2.3% of the workforce has undergone formal skill training. It is high time that the government start the skilling programme at a war footing so that unemployed youth can make the choice of their own destiny. There are a number of PSUs, ITIs and other institutions like Railways, Defence establishments and others that can impart short-term courses on skilling. It is unfortunate that the Minister of State for Skill Development Rajiv Pratap Rudy who hails from Bihar has done little in this regard. Skilling will augment avenues for employment and cause a rise in income. If you cannot control price inflation in essential commodities, then create conditions for increase in income which will manage the situation.

Another programme launched for the people at grassroots level is Sansad Adarsh Gram Yojana. How many of the BJP parliamentarians have adopted villages under this scheme? How many of them have used the MP Fund for Local Area Development? Why there is a delay in developing the promised Buddhist Circuit in Bihar? These are the questions BJP has to answer.

Mohan Bhagwat may have damaged BJP’s Bihar poll prospects, but the NDA Government at Centre should have reached the people of Bihar with these grassroots programmes much before the polls. (IPA Service)