This development is quite intriguing but not unexpected. USA’s allies on one hand have been forging a coalition against terrorists; its NATO ally was helping them. In fact the USA is pursuing all available mechanism to goad and corner Russia. The primary move of the USA is to isolate Russia from the Muslim world and turn them hostile to the Russian cause. This latest initiative involves three of the four big local players – Saudi Arabia, Turkey and Egypt – as well as some smaller local actors like the UAE, Qatar and Bahrain. For once, regional states are taking a lead in trying to restore order in their own neighbourhood. It also transpires that the US secretary of state, John Kerry, was weighing up whether to supply arms to the Ukrainian government.

Naturally, this gives rise to the question that instead of prevailing upon Russia and Ukraine to sort out their differences, why the Obama administration was contemplating to supply arms to Ukrainian government? It underlines that USA has something more at stake. This it has been planning in the background when the Ukraine minister accepted that its arms were finding its way to ISIS and expressed surprised at the development.

Though there is no proof that Ukraine’s state-owned Ukroboronprom which oversees the country’s military–industrial complex, is the source of the weapons, it is worth noting that millions of weapons have been stolen from Ukrainian government depots since the start of the war in Donbass, and that weapons-smuggling has increased dramatically as a result. It is beyond comprehension why the Ukrainian authorities failed to unearth the smuggling of the arms from the government depots? This is the general refrain usually resorted to by the governments in such tricky situations. Ukraine has been pursuing the same tactics.

Notwithstanding Ukrainian military denying the knowledge of how its weapons made it into the hands of Islamic State terrorists the Lebanese citizen Osama Khayat, who was arrested this week in Kuwait with other suspects, confessed that he purchased arms in Ukraine that were meant to be delivered to the militant group in Syria via smuggling routes in Turkey. Most intriguing has been the recovery of the Chinese made FN-6 aircraft.

As can be expected, Khayat’s revelations rekindled rumors that the government of Ukraine may be secretly funding the Islamic State, or may be turning a blind eye to secret dealings between weapons merchants and Islamic State arms procurers. The theory goes that Kiev is hoping that a well-armed Islamic State may be able to bog down Russian armed forces in Syria and thus distract Moscow from its military operations in eastern Ukraine.

Interestingly, Ukrainian Interior Minister Arsen Avakov conceded that the illegal arms trade in the country has increased considerably since the war began. Around 70 percent of weapons that are making their way onto the streets of Ukraine and further afield are reportedly coming from the contested Donetsk and Luhansk regions. Ukrainian citizens are in possession of about 6 million arms, compared with 3 million a year earlier. It is unfortunate that even after aware of this development the Ukrainian government was not taking action against the smugglers. This smacks of a deep design.

The Ukrainian authorities have in fact been pursuing this policy to check Russia. True enough, Ukraine's president, Petro Poroshenko, said: 'Russian forces have actually entered Ukraine,' while Ukrainian fighters in the southeast said Russians had helped separatists take over Novoazovsk. Undeniably, Ukraine is using the bogey of Russian intervention to justify its action.

Though on his part Russian president concedes military intelligence officers were operating in the country, he strongly denied that Russian military has entered into Ukraine. Of course Russia continues to station some of its military in the areas under its control. The Ukrainian authorities cite this as the example of Russian incursion.

After Russia attacking the ISIS and Isil terrorists in Syria, the USA has adopted this policy to malign and give a bad name to Russia. In fact in October 2015, the Washington Post reported that Russia has redeployed some of its elite units from Ukraine to Syria in recent weeks to support Syrian President Bashar al-Assad. In December 2015, Putin admitted that Russian military intelligence officers were operating in Ukraine. In regard to Ukraine, Moscow pursues a modernized version of the Brezhnev Doctrine on 'limited sovereignty'.

Meanwhile, Angela Merkel and François Hollande met Putin to discuss a possible peace plan for Ukraine. Before leaving for Moscow, the French president said securing a ceasefire for eastern Ukraine was just a first step and that a “comprehensive agreement” must be sought. Meanwhile Ukraine’s foreign minister, Pavlo Klimkin, said on Twitter that the leaders had discussed “steps so that the Minsk agreement can start working”. Hollande insisted that the Franco-German proposals were based on a guarantee of Ukraine’s territorial integrity.

Obama’s pick for defense secretary, Ashton Carter, told the US Senate: “I incline in the direction of providing Ukraine with arms, including, to get to what I'm sure your question is, lethal arms.” Already, the US has provided Ukraine with non-lethal aid but it has so far declined to provide weaponry. However, it is reconsidering its position in light of the continued conflict.

Nevertheless, Carter ruled out providing Ukraine with American military personnel. Opponents of arming Ukraine say it could escalate the situation and further deteriorate relations with Russia, which the US believes is supporting and arming rebels in eastern Ukraine. The American think-tank has been creating pressure on President Barack Obama for arming the Ukrainians. They argue by not being tough enough on Russian President Vladimir Putin, the USA was not sending the right signal. They hold “Obama should realise that we’re engaged in a whole new chapter of the Cold War.”

The members of the caucus believe, “Vladimir Putin is not a mystery. We’ve seen him operate before. Putin is all about Russia and expanding the influence of Russia. He’s about dividing the east from the west. He’s about doing everything he can to regain influence over the former states of the Soviet Union, and he is somebody who will take advantage of other countries and weakness if he sees that. Frankly, we’ve got to take a tougher stand against him because we’re engaged in a whole new chapter of the Cold War. The west needs to be much tougher. We ought to be bolstering NATO.”

Even the leading business men and trade leaders share this feeling: “As the conflict in Ukraine approaches the one-year mark, the time has come to admit that the current approach of the west is failing. No one can seriously doubt that the Russian president, Vladimir Putin, intends to continue on this path for as long as possible.” They favour US military intervention. This would certainly push the world on the brink of another war. (IPA Service)