The latest split has been caused by the decision of four prominent leaders of the KC(M) to leave the party and revive the Kerala Congress(J) following KC(M ) chief K M Mani’s refusal to give them seats to contest in the upcoming assembly elections.

The four leaders are: Francis George, Antony Raju, K C Joseph and P C Joseph, all belonging to the Joseph faction in the KC(M) and close confidants of Water Resources Minister P J. Joseph. Joseph himself has refused to quit the party, regretting the decision of his loyalists to leave the KC(M).

KC(M) leaders, including Mani are putting up a brave front, claiming that the split would have no impact at all on the party’s electoral prospects. But the ground reality is different.

The four leaders assert that denial of seats is not the proximate cause of the split. It was also in protest against the dynastic politics being practised by KC(M) president Mani and his autocratic style of functioning.

Another factor that has led to the split has been the sharp differences over the Gadgil and Kasturirangan reports. The Joseph faction leaders have accused Mani of doing nothing to safeguard the interests of farmers affected by the reports.

Moreover, the moves by KC(M) to have an electoral tie-up with the BJP has also not been to the liking of the Joseph faction. They accused party MP and son of KM Mani, Jose K Mani of having held talks with the BJP with the objective of exploring the possibilities of an alliance.

Although opinion is divided on the impact the split may have on the electoral prospects of the KC(M), it cannot be denied that the foursome who have made their exit from the KC(M) do have considerable influence in at least three districts: Idukki, Pathanamthitta and areas of Kottayam.

Now that the KC(M) dissidents have decided to form their own party, the CPI(M)-led Left Democratic Front(LDF), which had said that it would consider their case once they came out of the KC(M), will have to allot them seats. It is a task which is easier said than done. True, senior CPI(M) leaders like CPI(M) State secretary, Kodiyeri Balakrishnan and Politburo member Pinarayi Vijayan have welcomed the KC(M rebels’ decision to quit the party.

But leader of the Opposition, V. S. Achuthanandan is not at all enthusiastic about taking them in. VS is on record that these leaders who were a part of the corrupt Oomen Chandy Government till the other day should not be admitted to the LDF straightaway. VS’s stance is bound to create a sense of uncertainty about their entry to the LDF. Remember, VS had also opposed the CPI(M)’s joining hands with Abdul Nasser Madani’s People’s Democratic Party(PDP) in the past. VS stand then had been vindicated when the CPI(M ) suffered badly due to its ‘tie-up with Madani.

However, the official faction in the CPI(M ) led by Kodiyeri and Pinarayi think otherwise. The entry of the KC( M) rebels would give the LDF a firm foothold in Central Kerala, where the CPI(M ) is weak, they point out. The region boasts between 25 to 30 seats spread over three districts like Kottayam, Idukki and Ernakulam. And any tie-up with the new party to be floated by the KC(M) rebels would benefit the LDF immensely in making its presence felt in Central Kerala region dominated by the Christian community.

Conversely, the exit of the KC(M) rebels will dash the hopes of the UDF to retain power. That is for sure. UDF leaders may think otherwise. But the ground reality is entirely different. A setback in central Kerala will be a blow from which it would be difficult for the UDF to recover. (IPA Service)