The problems are more serious and the differences over the problem sharper in the Congress-led United Democratic Front (UDF).

It is not as if the CPI(M)-headed Left Democratic Front (LDF) is free from problems. But the problems confronting the LDF are not as acute as they are for the UDF.

Take the case of the Congress first. The Congress is virtually at war with itself over the matter of candidate-selection. The efforts of the Congress High Command and the Kerala Pradesh Congress Committee (KPCC) to minimise the problems on account of rampant groupism do not seem to be succeeding.

True, this time around, a new process has been set in motion to select candidates. This itself is a radical departure from the past process whereby Chief Minister Oommen Chandy and Home Minister Ramesh Chennithala heading the two dominant groups in the party, the A group ands the I group respectively, virtually share the seats between themselves, leaving nothing for those who do not belong to any groups.

A striking feature of the selection process this time is the key role being played by KPCC chief V M Sudheeran. For the first time, the District Congress Committees have been involved in the candidate selection process. This has been done to reduce the influence of groups in deciding the candidates. But the remedy seems to be developing into one worse than the disease. For instance, the DCCs themselves have been packed with the supporters of either Oommen Chandy or Chennithala. That being the reality, the baneful influence of groups will have a crucial bearing on the selection process.

True, the KPCC president will be able to get seats for some candidates who are above group politics. But he will be severely constrained by the group factor. That is for sure, given the power equations in the party. The latest on the Congress list is that a first list has been forwarded to the AICC which will decide on the final list in consultation with the Kerala leaders if needed, or take a unilateral decision bypassing them. Of course, the High Command’s decision will be influenced greatly by the advice of senior party leader from the state, A K Antony, whose word is considered the last one as far as Congress politics in Kerala is concerned. And, if Antony does have his way, then many sitting MLAs whose record is anything but good, will be shown the door.

If the Congress is beset with internal problems, its talks with the allies on seat sharing have run into rough weather, too. Talks with, for instance, the Kerala Congress(M) and the Indian Union Muslim League (IUML) have not been smooth at all. The KC(M), for one, wants to be allotted more seats. In the last elections, the party contested in 15 seats, winning 9. The Congress, however, is not in an obliging mood. If anything, the Congress has set its sights on the Poonjar seat rendered vacant by the expulsion from KC(M) of P C George, the controversial KC(M) MLA who was ousted from the party. This has not been to the liking of the KC(M).

The KC(M) is also struggling to recover from the exit from the party of four prominent leaders belonging to the PJ Joseph faction. These leaders led by Francis George, son of the founder of the Kerala Congress, K M George, will be given seats by the rival LDF to which they have crossed over. The KC(M) is worried by the exodus to join the party to be floated by the KC(M) rebels. A number of senior KC(M) leaders have quit the party to join hands with Francis George. It may be a trickle now. But the possibility of the process acquiring the proportions of a flood cannot be ruled out altogether.

Likewise, the Congress has problems with the IUML too. The latter decided to announce the party’s candidates list without any formal consultations with the Congress. This has angered the Congress leaders who favour a tough bargain with the IUML. For instance, the Congress wants the IUML to leave the Thiruvambadi seat in Thrissur district to the party this time. The IUML has said No, escalating the tension between the two parties in the process.

Smaller parties like the RSP, the JD(U) and the KC(Jacob) want to extract their pound of flesh, and have accordingly piled up pressure on the Congress to give them more seats this time around.

Compared to the bickering in the UDF, the situation is much better in the LDF. The only problem here is the tough bargain between the CPI(M) and the CPI. The latter has demanded at least 30 seats as against the 27 it contested in the 2011 assembly polls. Besides, the CPI is also insisting on being allotted the lone Rajya Sabha seat, which the LDF is sure of winning in the March 21 biennial Rajya Sabha elections. The discussions on the issue have remained inconclusive. It is expected to figure prominently in the next round to be held shortly.

Smaller parties like the Kerala Congress(B) and the Communist Marxist Party(CMP) have demanded two and five seats respectively. A decision is likely to be taken on these demands after the LDF coordination committee meeting to be held soon.

Differences continue to plague the B JP as well. The two factions led by former Kerala BJP chief V Muralidharan and former state president, P K Krishnadas are bargaining hard for seats to their loyalists. Leaders like P P Mukundan, who had left the party are also keen on contesting. But the state BJP leadership has so far not obliged him. An upset Mukundan is said to be in a mood to contest as an Independent, if necessary of the party fails to accommodate him.

The BJP’s talks with the Bharatiya Dharma Jana Sena (BDJS) have not been fruitful either, with the latter pitching its demands too high, especially in districts like Kollam, Alappuzha, Pathanamthitta considered its strongholds.

A clear picture is unlikely to emerge before the end of March. As for the LDF, the front hopes to finalise its candidates much before the UDF completes the exercise so that it can hit the campaign trail before the UDF. (IPA Service)