It is time for joy to celebrate the democracy after 50 years. But alongside, it also throws a challenging task to the elected government, which is daunting. The democratically elected government is not fully democratic. The military drafted constitution reserves 25 percent of the seats for non-elected military representatives. They have veto power over Constitutional changes. The constitution vests powers to Commander-in-Chief to appoint ministers for home, defence and border affairs.

There is no major manufacturing industry in the country, which can open up the employment opportunities. The country reels under acute poverty and is eclipsed by lackluster social welfare measures. In the socio-political front, country boils on severe ethnic conflict between Bhuddist-Muslim tensions. The only silver linings are the high growth in GDP and surge in foreign investment. In 2015, Myanmar‘s GDP grew by 8.3 percent.

Historically, India had close relation with Myanmar since British colonialism (formerly Burma). The bonhomie continued till it was taken over by military government. The British brought a number of Indians to Burma during its colonial rule. Prime Minister Jawaharlal Nehru provided arms to the Burmese government in 1949, which prevented the fall of Rangoon under the rebels. On 7th July, 1951, India and Burma signed a Treaty of Friendship in New Delhi. The relationship between India and Burma was deeply engaged and informal during Nehru regime.

The close relation between India and Myanmar slipped into sloth after China flexed its muscle. China emerged a major political and economic partner of Myanmar during the Military Junta government. Sino-Burmese border agreement and a treaty of friendship between Chain and Myanmar were signed in January 1960, which overshadowed India’s close relation with Myanmar. The relation deteriorated further with India’s support to Burma’s pro-democratic movement in 1988. India was the first country to support the pro-democracy movement in Myanmar. India, along with USA and Western countries, isolated the Myanmar Military Junta.

Aung San Suu Kyi is widely known as India lover. India was the first country to support her pro-democracy movement. She studied in India and knows India by its pulse. The opinion leaders prescribed three factors which will play important role to re-energize the India- Myanmar relation. They are security concerns, new hope for economic expansion and presence of ethnic Indians in Myanmar

India is facing constant threats from major insurgent groups in the North East. These groups have the bases on the 1600 km India-Burmese border line. They are National Socialist Council of Nagaland (NSCN) and Manipur insurgent groups. They are being constantly instigated by the Chinese act of fuelling anti India movement. India wants to contain these insurgencies with new government in Myanmar. Another security concern is China’s binge in selling arms to Military Junta in Myanmar and utilizing it as an access to India’s North East states. The return of democracy in Myanmar raises hope to abate the Chinese arms supply to the insurgents with joint military actions.

In the economic front, the geographical location of Myanmar is crucial for economic gains to India. It serves as gateway to South East Asia. It portends an unique opportunity to Prime Minster Narendra Modi to accelerate its Act Asia policy. Being located at the crossroad between Bangladesh, China, Laos and India that are home for more than 40 per cent of world population, big potential exists for trade expansion using Myanmar as epicenter.

Myanmar’s importance surged after it became member of ASEAN and a part of BIMSTEC (Bangladesh, India, Myanmar, Sri Lanka and Thailand Economic Cooperation). Myanmar emerged center for regional projects. Trans- Asia Highway project – connecting India, Thailand and Myanmar – is one such major project. Trans-Asian Highway project covers 3,200 km from Morea in Manipur in India to Maesot in Thailand and Tamu and Mandalay in Myanmar. Construction began in 2012. When completed, it will be one of the longest road traffic for border trade between the three countries.

Myanmar will play key role in the development of trade in between India and Mekong river basin countries. This will prove another opportunity for Modi’s Act Asia policy with Mekong river basin countries. Myanmar is a long standing member of the Greater Mekong Sub-region. It comprises of six countries – Cambodia, Laos, Thailand, Vietnam, Yannan Province, China and Myanmar. It will cater to one of the biggest trade channels through river water route in the world. The Mekong Sub-region is the home for 300 million people market

India is the third biggest importer of Myanmar products. About 13 percent of Myanmar exports went to India in 2014. In contrast, India’s exports to Myanmar are insignificant. The reason for large imports from Myanmar is that it is second biggest exporter of pulses and beans to India, next only to Canada. Hence, even though the trade balance is in favour of Myanmar, import from Myanmar signifies its importance.

With the return of democracy, India-Myanmar trade has a big potential in through border. At present there are four LCS (Land Custom Stations) in India dealing with border trade with Myanmar. Not much headway was made to capitalize the border trade between the two countries. One of the primary reasons for low level of border trade is unfavourable trading arrangement. Lack of modern trade infrastructure and adequate security lowered the potential of border trade. Hopes are raised with India-friendly government in Myanmar which will take constructive measures for improvement of border trade.

Myanmar is a potential investment destination in South East Asia. Amidst the lackluster growth in FDI in South East Asian countries, Myanmar was spotted as a bright destination by the foreign investors. Myanmar approved US $ 8.1 billion FDI in 2014-15 against US $ 4.1 billion in 2013-14 - almost a 100 percent jump in FDI. The lifting of USA and Western embargoes triggered Myanmar’s attractiveness for the foreign investors.

Myanmar is endowed with big oil and gas and precious stones reserves, such as rubies, sapphires and jade China remains the top foreign investor in Myanmar and Singapore was the second biggest foreign investor. In this field, India’s investment was very low.

Return of democracy warrant cheers for ethnic Indians in Myanmar and the Indian Muslims who were thrown out of Myanmar during the coup in 1960. Most of these Indians migrated to Moreh in Manipur. Currently, the ethnic Indians account for 2 percent of the total Myanmar population. These Indians are mostly traders. With the installation of pro-democratic government, new hopes are kindled for the return of Indian Muslims to their home after five decades.

Above all, the civilian government in Myanmar and Aung San Suu Kyi’s penchant for India’s support for development will act as a bridge to reinvigorate the relation between India and Myanmar. Alongside, it will create a counter-balance against the Chinese influence in the region. (IPA Service)