The problems faced by the beleaguered BJP have acquired an added urgency in view of the crucial electoral battles ahead in the states of Gujarat, Uttar Pradesh and Punjab.

In Gujarat, the BJP, which has enjoyed uninterrupted rule over the years, is facing a serious challenge in the form of alienation of the Dalits and Patidars, who have been on the warpath following increasing assaults against them. The sweep and intensity of Dalit anger against the ruling party in Gujarat has unnerved the party’s central leadership. It has already caused the replacement of chief minister Anandiben Patil, a close aide of Prime Minister Narendra Modi. The alienation of the Dalits is bound to have a crucial bearing in the Gujarat assembly elections.

The BJP is also extremely worried about the impact the Dalit uprising and alienation of Jats could have on the crucial Uttar Pradesh and Punjab assembly elections as well. In Punjab, the party has to reckon with the strong challenge being posed by the Aam Aadmi Party (AAP).

The NC session will also have a finetune its strategy for further firming up of the party’s base in South India, with special accent on Kerala.

True, the BJP has made significant advances in Kerala in terms of expanding its voter base; it has also realized its long-standing dream of opening its account in the Kerala Assembly.

That said, the fact remains that the BJP’s ambitious project of ensuring unity of Hindus has not made any appreciable headway. The BJP is boasting of its success in winning over the Sree Narayana Dharma Paripalana Yogam (SNDP) and the Bharat Dharma Jana Sena (BDJS), the party floated by the SNDP.

However, the alliance it had with the BDJS for the assembly elections has not had the desired impact. Moreover, the SNDP itself is enmeshed in all sorts of problems what with its powerful general secretary Vellappally Natesan embroiled in cases of financial irregularities. The BJP is also baffled by Natesan’s fulsome praise of Kerala Chief Minister Pinarayi Vijayan of late. It is being construed as an attempt by the SNDP boss to cosy up to the CPI(M) strongman to avoid action against him.

As if this was not enough, the BJP’s efforts to rope in more pro-Hindu organizations to its side have not made much headway. The powerful Nair Service Society (NSS) continues to be at loggerheads with the BJP. NSS general secretary G. Sukumaran Nair has ruled out any tie-up with the BJP to strengthen unity of Hindus. What has caused consternation to the BJP is the firm assertion by the NSS boss that there is no question of NSS abandoning its secular character and pandering to communal forces.

Equally notable has been the failure of the Kerala BJP to consolidate the gains it has made in electoral battles over the years. Despite determined efforts by the central leadership, the state unit of the BJP continues to be riven by acute factionalism.

The two dominant factions in the state unit led by former state chiefs V. Muralidharan and P K Krishna Das continue to work at cross-purposes.

An added worry for the central leadership of the BJP has been the string sense of resentment against the RSS’s efforts to have a vice-like grip on the state party. Such is the intensity of the resentment that BJP president Amit Shah himself had to intervene to douse the fires.

No wonder, the new BJP state president Kummanam Rajashekharan has not been effective in taking the the State BJP leaders along. Kummanam’s closeness to the RSS and his packing the state unit with RSS pracharaks has not been to the liking of the senior party leaders in Kerala. And they have made no secret of their unhappiness over the turn of events.

Last but not the least, the BJP’s efforts to ensure polarization of voters have also not borne fruit. Blatant attempts at communalizing the Kerala polity have received severe rebuffs. For instance, the bid to hijack the legacy of SNDP founder Sree Narayana Guru by claiming that he was a Hindu sanyasi has sent ripples of revulsion in the society. No less sinister has been the endeavour to erase the relevance of asura king Mahabali to the celebration of Onam festival. That both efforts have come a cropper is a tribute to the strong secular foundations of the State.

This being the reality, the BJP will have to reset its strategy to firm up its footing on Kerala’s political soil.

Even the efforts to whip up feelings against the LDF Government in the name of so-called attacks against the BJP cadres in the state seem to be falling flat. A delegation of BJP MPs undertook a tour of Kannur, hotbed of CPI(M)-RSS-BJP clashes, to make out a strong case for central intervention. Not-so-veiled threats to deploy the army in the troubled Kannur district and destabilize the elected government have also failed to have any impact on the enlightened voters of Kerala. The conclusion that the BJP will have to reinvent its strategy for firming up its grip on the state is inescapable. It is against this murky backdrop that the National Council meet, which will be attended, among others by Prime Minister Narendra Modi, BJP president Amit Shah, all the central ministers, MPs and BJP chief ministers. (IPA Service)