According to Chinese media, Global Times, Trump will pay little attention to Asia Pacific, unlike Obama and Hillary Clinton. But he will reinforce USA’s counterweight in South China sea to dwarf Chinese hegemony.

From the perspective of USA’s Asia-Pacific policy, assuming that Trump will be assertive in his isolationist policy, it will decipher two issues which will harp on India – China relation. First, USA’s less focus on Asia Pacific may prove benign to India-China economic relation. Second, India will be strengthened to corner China in South China Sea, with USA putting more counterweight in the area .

India – China relation made a major breakthrough after Mr Narendra Modi took the baton of Prime Minister of India. The political bitterness went under shelve after Modi government came into power. For Prime Minster Narendra Modi, China is not a foe and for President Xi Jinping, India emerged an opportunity. Both vowed to reinvent the relation from the perspectives of economic engagement, instead of hurling brickbat to each other. Mr Modi was never averse to China. His relation with China was established well before he became Prime Minister

China’s President Xi-Jinping pitched for a new look towards India after USA became assertive to have a strong foothold in Asia through its Asia Pivot policy , mainly to counter China. Paranoid by USA’s consolidation of political power in Asia, China viewed India a perceptible tool to counter-balance USA’s threat by enlarging economic engagement with India. Both India and China are in need of investment. While India looks for Chinese investment in the country, China stretched for overseas investment, given the bleak hope for growth in the domestic economy

Trump’s less focus on Asia-Pacific policy will be a leg up for India- China trade relation. Trump’s dumping of TPP (Trans Pacific Partnership) will strengthen RCEP (Regional Comprehensive Economic Partnership). This means a boost to India- China economic relation through RCEP.

The economic dimension of India- China relation is different from that of India- USA. While growth in India- China economic relation is driven by trade, growth in India-USA economic relation is based on investment. China is biggest trading partner of India and USA is the second biggest foreign direct investor and the biggest portfolio investor in India. Thus, there are little chances of conflict if Trump adopts anti-trade policy against China.

The stir in South China sea, triggered by China’s defiance to UN arbitration ruling and claiming its sovereignty has become headache for India’s trade with world. Half of India’s global trade passes through the South China sea water. Besides, India was at loggerheads with China for its off-shore oil drilling in Vietnam territorial water. Chinese defiance and claim of sovereignty put Vietnam’s maritime right in doldrums in South China sea. In 2014, a dispute erupted in between Vietnam and China over the maritime right when Chinese oil rig company conducted oil drilling inside the Vietnam‘s Exclusive Economic Zone (EEC).

In 2006, ONGC of India was awarded two oil blocks in Vietnam territorial water. One of them was relinquished by ONGC. The remaining Block 128 got entangled with the dispute, when Chinese company, China Off-shore National Company (CNOOC) invited global bids for nine blocks, which are located in the Vietnam EEC. Of these, two oil blocks overlap half of ONGC’s BLOCK 128.

Trump’s hard line postures against China - threatening imposition of 45 percent tariff on Chinese cheap goods imported in USA, owing to currency manipulation and accepting congratulatory phone from Taiwan President Tsai Ing Wen – reflecting a fear of USA deviation from One China policy - triggered suspense of jeopardizing US-China relation. This unleashed Trump’s strong standing up against China’s bullying in trade and world politics.

But, Chinese are little perturbed. The Chinese media and Chinese think tank consider these postures as election rhetoric. “Trump is unpredictable, but there will be ample room for China to improve bilateral relations with White House”, according to Mr Wang Yiwei, a senior fellow of international relations at Renmin University of China.

“Trump has slammed China many times during the campaign, calling for a 45 percent tax on Chinese goods. But, those are election rhetoric”, according Mr Jin Canrong, Associate Dean of School of International Studies, Renmin University of China.

Similar views were expressed by US Ambassador to China, Max Baucus. According to him, “election result will not heavily impact Sino-US relation because the two countries are so intertwined”

Thus, Trump’s election campaign and his isolationist strategy, which raised uproar over his tough stand against China, are mired in election rhetoric. They will have little impact on Sino-US relation. Given this, it is unlikely that Trump’s Presidency will impart any major impact on India-China relations.

In fact, the spur in the momentum of India-China economic relation, spearheaded by Chinese binge to invest in India after Modi became Prime Minster, is likely to insulate Trump’s any salvo to China. The recent decision of Chinese largest telecom company Huawei Technologies Co Ltd to set up smart phone manufacturing plant in India and a gushing flow of Chinese vendors to set up their smart phones manufacturing facilities in India, such as Vivo, Xiaomi , ZTE, One Plus , Gionee , are the cases in point for an emerging stronger economic relation between India and China.

Trump called Mr Modi a ‘great man”. He expressed his willingness to work closely with India. If Trump pursues isolationist “America First” policy and the growing relation between India-China is not an hinge on the USA’s foreign policy, including economic expansion, Trump’s isolationist policy is unlikely to haunt India-China relations. (IPA Service)