It is not unexpected. Aftermath of the so called surgical strike BJP was assuming itself front runner in the quadrangular contest in Uttar Pradesh. With the announcement of demonetisation of big value currency notes on 8th November, which aroused a wave of support in favour of PM, BJP thought UP had already been won. Internal wrangling of Samajwadi Party and Mulayam family assured BJP that its victory has been made further safe.

But, the victory of Akhilesh in party feud, where his father and uncle had to surrender before him and his political move to enter into alliance with Congress came as a bolt from the blue for BJP and its leaders. Akhilesh was able not only to consolidate its own Samajwadi Party, but was also able to garner support for himself from outside of his party base. In the family and party feud Akhilesh was seen to be fighting for pious cause of keeping criminal elements away from his party, hence winning the support of people who want a clean politics. Further, he entered into an alliance with Congress giving not only Bahujan Samaj Party, but also BJP a big jolt.

Congress, even in its worst phase gets at least 7 percent of total votes and an alliance with it gives assurance to Muslims community, whose sense of insecurity because of RSS and BJP is at its peak, that BJP can be defeated by supporting SP- Congress alliance. That is why, after the announcement of alliance, a mini wave seems to be sweeping across Uttar Pradesh. And in this wave the ambition of BJP and the dream of Mayawati to come to power again seem to be sinking.

BJP calculation was simple. It had got 42 percent votes in 2014 Lok Sabha election, while Samajwadi Party had got 29 percent votes in 2012 election. That is why, even with the loss of 12 percent of votes, BJP could have got 30 percent of popular votes getting majority in four cornered contest.

There are around five to seven percent floating votes in all elections, which determine the fate in a closely contested election. The floating voters are not committed to any party, but vote according to their perception of who is good and who is bad and also their perception of who is going to win. These floating voters had helped Mayawati to get absolute majority in 2007 election and Samajwadi Party in 2012. In 2014 Lok Sabha election, these voters moved towards BJP and gave it an unprecedented victory.
BJP was hopeful that with its publicity blitz, it could influence these voters, but the internal fight of SP and victory of Akhilesh in it along with Congress alliance is likely to move these floating voters towards the present Chief Minister.

In any election negative factor plays a major role. Notebandi was a ploy of Modi to win UP election. The initial response was favourable. The sentiments continued for a while in favour of Modi, but gradually the hope gave way to despair. It affected the traders, small scale and cottage industrialists, who have been the backbone of BJP since Jansangh days, because of its avowed philosophy of doing away with all government control over trade and industries. Now, the backbone of BJP seems to be cracking. They suffer a lot after Notebandi. Many of them are still suffering and quite a lot people are getting income tax notice via SMS and Email, turning them against the ruling party at centre.

According to a reporter, who tried to feel the pulse of these traders and small entrepreneurs of UP, the young section of them has now turned to Akhilesh, who want to teach Modi a lesson for ‘great betrayal’, another section is still with BJP and there is a third section, who may vote for none. They will either abstain from voting or may push NOTA button of the voting machine. It is noteworthy that in Bihar NOTA had got 9 lakh and 50 thousand votes there in Assembly Election, while during Lok Sabha election NOTA votes were only one lakh. Most of NOTA votes belonged to those BJP supporters, who had got angry with Modi for his open support to the system of reservation. They did not like Modi taking the extreme line favouring reservation. In UP caste quota is not an issue, but due to Notebandi, a large section of BJP supporters may push NOTA button giving Akhilesh Yadav an edge.

Caste plays a dominant role in UP election. In 2014 Lok Sabha election this factor helped Modi, but now the scene is different. Despite its effort to penetrate the Dalit and OBC voters, BJP has failed to win their trust. In fact, it has antagonised a section of its upper caste supporters. BJP has a sizable number of ticket aspirants from upper caste people and they have been associated with the party for a long time. Now in the name of giving more space for OBCs people they have been sidelined. That is while they are now in a rebellious mood.

On the other hand, Akhilesh is not talking in caste term, but only talking about development. Caste talks are being done by Modi and other BJP leaders, who are trying to create a divide between Yadav and non-Yadav OBC. It is interesting to mention that Lalu wanted to campaign for Samajwadi Party in UP, but Akhilesh did not invite him fearing that he would take up the issue of OBC quota and caste census. Ultimately, Lalu could do campaigning in only one constituency, where his son in law is contesting on an SP symbol.

By reminding people of the murderous attack on Mulayam by Congress, Modi has shown the same kind of desperation, what he had shown at the end of two phases of voting in Bihar. It seems Modi is feeling the heat generated by the Akhilesh wave. (IPA Service)