India’s most populous state is larger and more diverse state than many countries. It was swept by the Narendra Modi wave during the 2014 elections yielding 73 of UP’s 80 Lok Sabha seats to the BJP. But three years later, with the fourth phase of UP elections over, outcome is more uncertain. Among three main contenders, the BJP, the BSP and the Congress-Alliance, it is difficult to pinpoint a clear winner. Given UP’s vastness and diversity, this could be a constituency to constituency fight where local issues dominate everywhere.

BJP is relying heavily on Prime Minister Narendra Modi’s charisma once again to pull off this election for them. While Modi is no doubt a potent factor, his campaign could be less effective than 2014 because incumbency has set in with NDA at the centre for three years, and this is a local election where BJP is not projecting any chief ministerial candidate or a state-level leadership. And there may be a headwind from demonetisation.

Chief Minister Akhilesh Yadav’s efforts have been to bring a generation shift in SP’s outlook. He has tried to shift focus from traditional Muslim-Yadav combination to aspirational class and youth, a weak Congress has allied with SP to consolidate Muslims but it may not be enough to counter the anti-incumbency of the past five years. The alliance between the two has led to resentment in cadre of both parties resulting in SP and Congress contesting against each other in over 20 constituencies. Akhilesh, seeking to reinvent himself as development man but the general lawlessness that has distinguished UP under SP may militate against that.

Mayawati’s BSP has been written off by many due to previous opinion polls that placed the Dalit base outfit third but it could be the dark horse of this election. Mayawati’s gambit of a Dalit-Muslim combine seems to have upset UP’s traditional vote arithmetic as BJP’s social engineering changes equations, especially in western UP. Mayawati identity politics has been the mirror image of BJP’s, while BSP has fielded none. With identity politics enjoying a field day, the outcome is likely to be fractured and even a hung assembly should not come as a surprise.

Muslims are in a quandary whether to go with BSP or SP….if Muslims vote gets divided BJP’s prospects get even better.

BJP leaders feel demonetisation will not have any adverse effect on party’s poll prospects. Union minister Kalraj Mishra says “I don’t think so. Traders were unhappy a little bit at first but now they can think that nobody can do more for them than BJP. The announcement made in the budget and one made by PM on December 31 on collateral free loans from smaller business for which the government will take the guarantee are big moves. The five per cent tax relief for companies with turnover of up to Rs. 50 crores will amount to benefits worth about Rs. 7,200 crores and thousands of companies will gain from it. Traders are hopeful that they will get more benefits in future. Demonetisation hasn’t had any negative impact.

BJP will benefit from division among Yadavas. Sarvans are with BJP while Muslims are in a quandary on whether to go with BSP. The question is how much of their votes will go where but a division is certain. If Muslim votes get divided, our prospects get even better, says Kalraj Mishra. (IPA Service)