None of the others, whether it is Naveen Patnaik or Mamata Banerjee or Chandrababu Naidu, is seen as someone who has the potential to be a widely accepted all-India figure who can be a focal point for the “secular” camp. And it is not because they are not fluent in Hindi. The reason is that they do not seem focused enough on the main mantra of political success these days – rapid development.

Both Nitish Kumar and Akhilesh Yadav have shown this intention. Of the two, however, it is the UP chief minister who appears to be currently forging ahead. If his counterpart in Bihar is lagging behind, the explanation lies in Nitish Kumar’s inability to be the master in his own house.

It wasn’t so when he was in alliance with the BJP. At that time, he was praised for leading Bihar out of the “jungle raj” of his predecessor, Lalu Prasad Yadav, under whom the state fell behind in all aspects of life because of rampant lawlessness.

Nitish Kumar’s success in ending that period of darkness enabled him to emerge as a person who could legitimately aspire to be a national rather than a provincial leader. But no longer. Now, as an ally of foe-turned-uneasy friend, Lalu Yadav, Nitish Kumar will be lucky if he can retain his position as the chief minister for long.

The observation of Lalu Yadav’s acolyte, the jailbird Mohammed Shahabuddin, that he does not recognize Nitish Kumar as the chief minister, and Rashtriya Janata Dal (RJD) leader and former chief minister Rabri Devi’s belief that the people of the state want to see her son, Tejaswi, as the chief minister (although her husband, Lalu Yadav, has played down the remark) are significant straws in the wind.

Nitish Kumar, too, hasn’t strengthened his own case by turning to prohibition as the means for sustaining his reign instead of concentrating on Bihar’s need for development. His bizarre diktats such as that an entire family will be punished if one of its members consumes the alcohol, and the modification of government service rules to prevent all the officers from drinking even outside the state suggest that he cannot be expected to act in a rational manner if he develops an obsession in any matter.

While Nitish Kumar courts the risk of becoming a figure of ridicule and losing the battle for political supremacy to Lalu Yadav, Akhilesh has succeeded in making his writ prevail by routing two formidable opponents from within his family – his father, Mulayam Singh and uncle, Shivpal – thereby displaying ruthlessness, which cannot but stand him in good stead in the mud pit of politics.

However, the main reason why he was able to prevail over experienced warriors like his father and uncle was the support of the ordinary people, who were admirers of, first, his pleasant personality and, secondly, his commitment to remake his party by shedding its casteist orientation as well as its image of being an outfit of anti-socials. Instead, he emphasized growth-oriented policies.

It is Narendra Modi, however, who deserves the credit for making politicians turn away from their earlier sectarian preoccupations, whether caste or community, and realize the importance of the bijli-sadak-pani factor in winning elections. In addition, they have understood the value of private investment, whether by foreign or domestic industrialists, in order to increase the scope for employment.

Irrespective of which party wins in U.P., whether the BJP or the Samajwadi Party-Congress combine, it is evident that Akhilesh is keen on changing UP’s image as one of the BIMARU or sick states. His youth – Akhilesh is 44 – is crucial in this respect because even if he cannot be the first to cross the finishing line this time, he will have time on his hands as well as popularity to guide the state in future.

Nitish Kumar does not have this advantage. At 66, he is still relatively young by Indian political standards, but he is hamstrung by the fact that his party, the Janata Dal-United (JD-U), is second in the political hierarchy to Lalu Yadav’s RJD not only in terms of seats in the legislature – the JD-U has 71 seats to the RJD’s 80 – but also in the casteist pecking order because the RJD will generally have the upper hand in the social and political fields as the party of Yadavs, the most dominant backward caste in the Hindi belt.

Nitish Kumar’s predicament, therefore, is not unlike what Akhilesh’s was when his father and uncle called the shots. However, it is only in the last few weeks that Akhilesh has been able to break the shackles that had bound him and attain political adulthood. It will take a long time, therefore, for him to prove his mettle, especially in the matter of leading a non-BJP gathbandhan at the national level in this era of coalition politics. (IPA Service)