The Bihar chief minister is undeniably fighting a battle for survival. At the time of installation of the NDA government headed by Nitish, the BJP gave the impression that he would be a decisive voice in the arrangement and the saffron outfit would listen to him. But once the BJP ministers took charge, the scenario has undergone a change.

Amit Shah, conscious of the machinations of Nitish, has categorically asked the state BJP leaders not to concede any ground to him. He has set an ambitious target of winning all the 40 Lok Sabha seats in Bihar in the 2019 parliamentary elections, implying that the BJP is not going to allow Nitish to field his candidates as he many desire. Shah has already conveyed to his state leaders that the BJP at best can leave five seats for the JD(U). Shah has already told the top Bihar BJP leaders that the party would get a lion’s share when it comes to seat-sharing with its incumbent and new allies.

This is the first major political move to show the mirror to Nitish and make him conscious of his political standing. Almost all the top state BJP leaders have conveyed their reservation about Nitish to Shah. There is a consensus that Nitish does not have his support base; instead he uses other’s support to be in power. The leaders nurse the feeling that there is no need for the party to concede too much leverage to him. Close aides of Amit Shah have made it known to the state leaders that though the party is yet to take up the issue of seat sharing with its allies, it would contest at least 30 seats on its own and accommodate the others, including the JD(U) in the remaining ten seats. Of these, Nitish may be given five seats, LJP four and Upendra Kushwaha’s Rashtriya Lok Samata Party (RLSP) one or two. Jitan Ram Manjhi’s Hindustani Awam Morcha (HAM) will have to be content with one. But that will happen only if Manjhi merges his party with the BJP.

The BJP’s argument is simple; in 2014 the JD(U) had won only two seats. In fact, Nitish must appreciate the gesture of the BJP of offering him five seats. Under the BJP’s design conceding more seats to Nitish would prove risky for the saffron outfit. For the survival of NDA in Bihar the only viable option before it is to clip the wings of Nitish. Sources also confide that Modi has not forgotten the humiliation Nitish had inflicted on him earlier. Shah intends to make Nitish realize that the BJP led by him is not the one of Vajpayee and Advani era when he could prevail upon the two leaders and extract the benefits from them. This was due to the reason that the two stalwarts could not see through Nitish’s games. However, the present leadership of Modi and Shah thoroughly knows Nitish and is aware of the extent of his mass appeal.

It is also significant that the central leadership of BJP and the Modi government is no more in favour of sanctioning special category status to Bihar. The leaders point out that Nitish himself has been going around saying that Bihar had made a turnaround and is on the growth trajectory. Obviously this means that the state does not need any doles. Political observers feel this is another move by the BJP to show Nitish his place. Significantly during his recent visit to Bihar to see the intensity of the floods Modi had cancelled a lunch at Nitish’s residence and left for Delhi. Secondly, though the intensity of damage by the floods was quite acute Modi doled out only Rs 500 crore for relief and rehabilitation of the flood-hit people. In contrast in 2008 Dr Manmohan Singh had granted more than Rs 1,000 crore.

By changing his loyalty Nitish might have got a material reprieve, but one thing is certain: the clever man of Bihar politics has staked his future. After Nitish joined the NDA the BJP had given the impression that he was its valued partner. But soon the myth got exposed. The BJP failed to honour the assurance given to him about the induction of JD(U) nominees in the Union cabinet reshuffle. Astonishingly while no JD(U) member was inducted, Nitish was not even invited to the swearing in ceremony. Before his joining NDA, the BJP leadership had agreed to make him its convenor. But once the NDA took office in Bihar the promise was thrown to the bins.

The message from Shah to his Bihar leaders is clear and candid that the BJP has to expand and strengthen on its own and in this process no ground should be conceded to any friendly party. Though the close aides of Nitish are trying to hold the fort, the message has already gone to the rank and file that he was on a sticky pitch and has lost the trust and favour of the BJP leadership, especially of Amit Shah, who seldom forgets and forgives his enemies.

Nevertheless a large section of the JD(U) leaders have turned skeptical of their future. There is a general feeling in the party that the BJP would not wreck the NDA boat till the 2019 Lok Sabha elections as they need the dalit and mahadalit votes. They argue that through many schemes and programmes Nitish has nurtured his own support base amongst them. So, till the 2019 elections the BJP would not like to disturb the power equation.

The reason for Sharad Yadav turning defiant and going strong on presenting his break away group as the real JD(U) owes to the recent political developments. He is confident that soon a significant number of leaders would come out of Nitish’s JD(U). They would not like to endanger their future by continuing to remain in the alliance as mute spectators. Already the senior leaders are unhappy at the allocation of important ministries and portfolios to BJP leaders. (IPA Service)