The very first general elections in India in 1952 saw Congress struggling to form a government in the then Madras province even though it swept the polls elsewhere in the country. At the behest of Prime Minister Jawaharlal Nehru, the services of Independent India's first and the only Indian Governor-General C Rajagopalachari had to be sought to stitch a Congress government in the Madras Province, when Communists almost managed to form the government there. After stabilising the government, he handed over reigns to K Kamaraj in 1954. Tamil Nadu became the first state in the country to have a government formed by a regional party, DMK, in 1967 and since then no national party, be it Congress or now BJP, has managed to form government there. Rajaji and Nehru fell apart subsequently and Rajaji was instrumental in helping DMK to form the government and C N. Annadorai, who led the first non-Congress government, once led a movement for separation of the state from India. In Kerala, the first Communist government, led by EMS Namboodiripad, was formed in 1957 and in the last three or four decades there has been no single party rule in the state. The Congress-led UDF and CPI(M)-led Left Front have been coming to power alternately. In the case of Andhra Pradesh and Karnataka, the picture is slightly different. Though regional parties have emerged since 1983 in the two states, which are now three with the bifurcation of Andhra Pradesh into Telangana and AP, power has been shared between regional and national parties.

The social justice movement too started much earlier in South India. The Justice movement started much before Independence in Madras Province and was launched by E V Ramaswamy Naicker, who broke away to form Dravida Kazhagam. C N Annadorai split DK to form DMK, which later split into DMK and AIADMK. The social justice movement was launched in South India in the 1930s and 1940s, whereas it became a movement much later, perhaps during the V.P. Singh regime in 1989 when Mandal Commission was sought to be implemented even though he Socialist Party led by Ram Manohar Lohia and Jai Prakash Narayan made some feeble attempts earlier. In fact, the JP Movement was more against Emergency imposed by late Prime Minister Indira Gandhi.

There is a general dislike of North Indian politicians in South India as they are perceived and seen to be promoting only the interest of cow-belt. There is also a feeling in South India that politicians from north want to thrust upon them Hindi putting them at a disadvantage. Until recently not many in the North knew there existed four important and ancient languages in the South. For North Indians, anything south of Vindhyas, is all the same. North Indians know very few freedom fighters from South though there were many, who were in the forefront. This sort of indifference and step-motherly approach of North Indian politicians have led to growing resentment in South India for North Indian political leaders, who are seen as discriminatory, corrupt and have scant respect for the welfare of South Indians. This may not be totally true but the feeling that northern politicians ride rough shod over South India is only growing and this is increasingly visible in the entire South India.

With social justice movement taking firm roots in South India, communalism too had very little scope but lately with BJP spreading its tentacles, particularly in Karnataka and Kerala, there have been sporadic communal clashes and political murders.

But in view of the improvement in social indices like health, education, infant mortality, law and order and so on in the southern states due to people-centric policies pursued by politicians there, the five states have performed reasonably well in economic development when compared to northern states. This is partly because of the fact that social justice movement, which is taking roots in North India only now, had ensured that political parties in power laid emphasis more on social development such as health and education. Casteism, corruption and communalism do exist in South India, but these are much less compared to North India due to which general education, health care and development are more pronounced in the South. Also corruption in South India is institutionalised, unlike in North. This ensures work is done on greasing the palms, unlike in the North, where one is not sure work would be done even after paying money.

This being the case, the national parties, which are dominated by pro-Hindi political leaders, find it difficult to win elections without the support of regional parties. Even Congress, whenever it tried to sideline prominent leaders in the respective southern states, fared badly.

Usually southern states believed in personality-based politics. This is one of the reasons that southern states have thrown up strong and powerful state chief ministers, be it E M S Namboodiripad, A K Antony, K Karunakaran in Kerala, Rajaji, Kamaraj, C N Annadorai, M Karunanidhi, M G Ramachandran, J Jayalalithaa in Tamil Nadu, S Nijalingappa, Veerendra Patil, Ramakrishna Hegda, Devraj Urs, Deva Gowda in Karnataka and P V Narasimha Rao, Neelam Sanjiva Reddy, Chenna Reddy, Rajashekhara Reddy, N T Rama Rao and M Chandrababu Naidu in Andhra Pradesh.

It would be interesting to see how BJP fares in the elections to state assemblies in coming years. Though BJP is trying hard to dominate South Indian politics as well, it is seen as a party that would impose Hindi under the garb of nationalism. Besides there is a general fear that communal tension could flare up in South, which has hardly had any communal violence in the last few decades. The Muslims and Christians in the South have no problems with Hindus and they participate in Hindu festivals as well besides having blended well with the local people and culture. Also BJP is seen as a brahminical party in the South even though Prime Minister Narendra Modi belonged to a backward community. Anti-Brahmin feeling is very strong in South even though it has mellowed down in recent years with improvement in education and more job opportunities. With not many Brahmins, barring a few exceptions, getting into politics or government jobs in South, the resentment too is diminishing day by day.

Karnataka is among the first southern states likely to go to assembly polls in early 2018. Congress party, headed by a dalit leader Siddharamaiah, is in power at the moment. The main contest will be between Congress and BJP. Karnataka is the only southern state where BJP has established firm roots. Congress always secured 30-35 per cent of the vote share, mainly from backwards and dalit communities. Even during the worst of times it secured at least 30 per cent votes. BJP came to power for the first time in 2009 on its own securing the highest ever 33 per cent votes. Its leader B S Yedyurappa, who is from upper Lingayat caste, accounting for 9 per cent of the state population, is seen as a very corrupt leader, whereas Congress chief minister Siddharamaiah, though facing the anti-incumbency factor, still may scrape through because of its good work done for the uplift of the poor and backward classes. Opinion polls too suggest this. To scuttle whatever little chance BJP has in Karnataka in the next assembly polls, Siddaramaiah has whipped up the anti-Hindi and anti-communal feeling in the state.

In Tamil Nadu, the popularity of Dravidian parties DMK and AIADMK are on the decline. With AIADMK becoming rudderless after the death of J Jayalalithaa last December and DMK, with its ageing leader M Karunanidhi ailing, and his son Stalin unable to fit into his father's shoes, there is a political vacuum and both Congress and BJP are virtually non-existent. Lately BJP has made some inroads but not adequately to win elections. Tamil Nadu assembly elections are due only in 2021 but because of the political turmoil after Jayalalithaa's demise, there could be mid-term poll and it is not clear who will fill the vacuum. New political forces led by cinestars Kamal Hasaan and Rajni Kanth are emerging but a clear picture has not yet emerged.

In Kerala, assembly elections are due only in 2021. Left Democratic Front is in power and main opposition United Democratic Front led by Congress is not far behind. BJP is emerging as a third front but is far behind the other two fronts. Like in Karnataka, BJP might emerge as a political force in the state in the next elections but it appears unlikely at the moment to form government there.

In Telangana and Andhra Pradesh, regional parties TRS and Telugu Desam are in power at the moment. The elections are due in 2019 and at the moment both the parties are going strong in their respective states. BJP is emerging as a political force in these two states but the rivals to these regional parties could still be Congress, which however is rudderless at the moment in both the states.

So regional forces are to stay in southern states and if at all any national party can nurse any hope of capturing power, it would perhaps be Congress in Karnataka and Congress-led UDF in Kerala in the next assembly polls as things stand today. (IPA Service)