“A Lok Sabha majority for the party on its own now appears unobtainable. Even if its seat total slips badly, it may still be able to form a government with the support of allies, but they may demand a change of prime minister,” he writes. “In May, a CSDS-Lokniti survey found that only 22 per cent of the Scheduled Castes favour the BJP, down 8 percentage points since January. The story is similar among the Scheduled Tribes. Support from farmers plunged from 49 per cent a year earlier to 24 per cent.”

The BJP’s prospects state-by-state also present a similar picture. According to Manor, BJP’s best hope is Odisha, the only state where its popularity has risen sharply. The BJP might pick up between 10 and 15 seats in Odisha. Modest gains may be possible in the Northeast – improve a little in Assam, where it won 7 of 14. It may also gain “a handful” in West Bengal. But taken together northeast states elect only 87 MPs.

“That number is dwarfed by the 326 seats where the BJP will probably lose some or many,” states Manor. Delhi, Haryana, Chhattisgarh, Gujarat, Uttarakhand and Himachal Pradesh elect 63 MPs. The BJP will “probably lose a few and perhaps many” in Bihar and Jharkhand. In Karnataka, the uneasy alliance between Congress and the Janata Dal (Secular) appears set to survive until the Lok Sabha election.

“The BJP will probably lose some, perhaps many, in Maharashtra (where it won 23 of 47) if no agreement is reached with the Shiv Sena. Even if those two parties contest together, perceptive observers in the state believe that each will try to ensure the defeat of candidates from the other. These states elect 129 MPs,” says Manor.

But here comes the clincher. “The party may lose massively in Uttar Pradesh if the alliance between the Samajwadi Party and the Bahujan Samaj Party holds up, perhaps with understandings with the Rashtriya Lok Dal and/or the Congress. Most of the 71 of 80 seats that the BJP won there in 2014 are at risk.”

Besides, the BJP appears certain to lose a large number of seats in two other sizeable states. “In Madhya Pradesh (where it won 27 of 29), a recent survey found the Congress with a comfortable lead. In Rajasthan, where the BJP won all 25 seats, polls suggest that it is in serious trouble. The Congress appears poised to recapture the state and most Lok Sabha seats there as well. In these two states, the BJP is very likely to lose most of the 52 of 54 seats that it won in 2014.”

Down south – Kerala, Tamil Nadu, Puducherry, Andhra Pradesh and Telangana – the total number of Lok Sabha seats is 102. In 2014, the BJP won four seats, two of which came from Andhra Pradesh where it was in alliance with the Telugu Desam Party. In 2019, those numbers are hardly likely to improve. “To sum up, the party will probably make limited gains in states that elect only 87 MPs, while it is faces modest-to-major losses in states where 326 seats are at stake,” writes Manor.

His conclusion is that while it’s impossible for the BJP to win a majority (272) on its own, it might still win enough seats to form a coalition government. “But it will have to bargain with allied parties that are deeply frustrated with Modi’s wilful, unresponsive ways. If the BJP wins little more than 200 seats, those parties may insist on a change of prime minister. The RSS, which prefers government through institutions to one-man rule, is reportedly ready with an alternative.”

Having said that, Manor returns to the familiar cautionary. “The situation is fluid, so things may swing back in its favour. Amit Shah’s organisation building may reap rewards. So may communal polarization… Unexpected events may help the BJP… ‘Brand Modi’ still has persuasive power, greatly magnified by many fawning or intimidated media outlets. But for the present, the dream of a Congress-mukt India, never mind an opposition-mukt India, is in real jeopardy.” (IPA Service)