Consequently, political parties have slipped into the poll mode. Seat allocation talks have gathered momentum. Expectedly, hard bargaining over ‘winnable seats’ is well and truly on.

While the CPI(M)-led Left Democratic Front (LDF) is free from hassles, problems plague both the Congress-headed United Democratic Front (UDF) and the BJP camps.

The LDF is exuding optimism. The Front is hoping to build on the momentum created by the huge success of the unique ‘Women’s Wall’ programme. There are indications that the front is likely to drop Independents backed by it. That would mean that Independent MPs like Innocent, who won from Chalakudi and Joyce George who came out the victor from Idukki, may not get a second term. The strategy seems to be to field a few CPI(M state secretariat members. Topping the list of aspirants are PK Sreemathi, who is likely to be retained in Kannur, KN Balagopal from Kollam and M V Govindan Master from Kasargode. P. Karunakaran, who represents Kasargode has completed three terms. Therefore, he is unlikely to be re-nominated. Likewise, P. Rajiv may be fielded from Chalakudi. As things stand now, the CPI(M) is sure to retain Alathur, Palakkad and Attingal. The p[arty will face a stiff challenge if former chief minister Oommen Chandy is the UDF candidate from Idukki. The CPI(M) is making a determined attempt to wrest Kozhikode and Vadakara from the Congress this time.

As for the CPI, the party is set to contest from the four constituencies it was allotted last time. These are Thiruvananthapuram, Mavelikkara, Thrissur and Wayanad. In Thiruvananthapuram, the party may put up a heavyweight candidate to challenge sitting Congress MP Shashi Tharoor, who will most probably be retained. Thrissur, which sent the party’s lone Lok Sabha MP, Jayadevan, could see a change of candidate. If Jayadevan is dropped, then KP Rajendran, who is close to the central leadership, may get a chance. As for Wayanad, Satyan Mokeri, who put up a gallant fight before losing to MI Shanavas of the Congress – who has passed away – by a narrow margin of 20, 000 votes, may get a second term. Mavelikkara may also see another strong CPI candidate being fielded.

In contrast to the smooth sailing LDF is expected to have on seat allocation, the UDF has already run into rough weather. The front is facing serious problems with both Indian Union Muslim League (IUML) and Kerala Congress (Mani) demanding an additional seat. KC(M) chief K M Mani has upped the ante by saying that there would be no compromise on the second seat demand.

Similarly, the IUML is also under pressure from the Youth League, the party’s youth wing and Samastha, its main backer, to demand a third seat apart from the two it already has in its kitty.

It remains to be seen whether Congress would succumb to the politics of brinkmanship being played by the IUML and the KC(M). If the track record is anything to go by, Congress is likely to yield to the pressure from the allies. But there is a difference this time around though. There is a strong feeling in the Congress that in view of the special significance of the 2019 Lok Sabha elections, in which the Congress must win as many seats as is possible to wrest the BJP from power at the Centre, the party must reject the allies’ demand for extra seats.

Also, the party is in a confident mood following the ‘roaring success’ of the Rahul visit. There is no doubt the Gandhi scion has galvanized the Congress rank and file. His meeting in Kochi was well-attended. His message that the party organization must be strengthened has gone home. And the Congress in Kerala has buckled down to the task of revitalizing the organizational machinery.

As far as the BJP is concerned, the party is riven with factionalism. BJP is focusing mainly on Thiruvananthapuram, Attingal, Pathanamthitta, Thrissur, Palakkad, Kasargode and Alappuzha. The B JP leadership thinks it is in a position to put up a good show in view of what it calls huge gains from the Sabarimala agitation. The party particularly fancies its chances in Thiruvananthapuram, Pathanamrthitta and Kasargode, from where top party leaders may chance their luck. The names doing the rounds are BJP state chief for Thiruvananthapuram, K. Surendran from Kasargode and MT Ramesh from Pathanamthitta. Prime Minister Narendra Modi’s two visits to the state have, no doubt, enthused the party. But can the BJP translate the euphoria into votes? That is the big question.

A notable feature of BJP’s poll strategy is that the RSS has gained complete control over the state party. It will have a decisive say in the matter of seat allocation. In other words, the BJP list could spring a few surprises. The reason why the RSS has decided to cut the state BJP leaders to size is its displeasure over the virulent factionalism plaguing the party. The RSS is also of the view that the BJP squandered a golden opportunity to expand its influence and base in the state by its inept handling of the Sabarimala agitation. (IPA Service)