All the four seats will come at the expense of the Left Democratic Front is the considered opinion. That Kerala Chief Minister Pinarayi Vijayan will pay for playing Swami Ayyapan’s devotees for a fool. At least one of the four seats, Pathanamthita, will go to the BJP as a direct fallout of Pinarayi’s pigheadedness; the strong-arm tactics and subterfuge he used to break Swami Ayyappa’s eternal celibate status; his use of police and state machinery.

Pinarayi’s police targetted specifically BJP politicians. One of them, K Surendran, was picked up for special treatment. False cases were foisted on Surendran every time he secured bail in one case, so that he remain behind bars for as long as possible. Deprived of sleep, on days he had to appear in court, he was denied even a cup of tea to breakfast.

Surendran remained incarcerated in jails across the state that in shape resembles a bitter gourd! Pinarayi made Surendran a Sabarimala hero. And Pathanamthita, the district and parliamentary constituency, is where Sabarimala is located. Infighting in BJP kept Surendran’s candidature in abeyance for weeks. But public hue and cry forced the BJP central leadership’s hand.

K Surendran arrived in the constituency by train with party ticket in hand. Proof that political parties ought to keep public sentiments in mind when choosing candidates. There’s no other go if they don’t want to lose. Pathanamthita is a temple ‘town’. The inhabitants of the district and the voters of the constituency are overwhelmingly Hindu Ayyappa bhakts. That said, the substantial Christian community decides outcome.

Till before the Supreme Court verdict on women’s entry into Sabarimala, political contests in Pathanamthita were always between the LDF and UDF. “Sabarimala” has changed that perception. The fight today is between the UDF and the BJP. The verdict might go in favour of the BJP, mostly because K Surendran happens to be BJP candidate.

Ayyappa devotees of Pathanamthita haven’t forgotten Surendran’s incarceration. The “torture, mental and physical, he underwent for Swami Ayyappa.” The “veet-ammas” of Pathanamthita, “ready-to-wait” women of all age, consider him “our own”. If women-power alone could win a constituency, Pathanamthita is that constituency.

The second seat the BJP considers already in its kitty is Shashi Tharoor’s Thiruvananthapuram; again, mostly because of the man chosen – Kummanam Rajashekharan. He’s in the fray with strong favourable winds. Of course, Swami Ayyappa will play his part, but the double anti-incumbency of Tharoor will also contribute.

Rajashekharan is the Parrikkar-sort, with plain and simple living his trademark. His bank account shows a deposit of just a lakh of rupees. Immovable property is an ancestral home. The salary he earned as Mizoram Guv has all gone to charity. Compare that with Shashi Tharoor, who stayed for a year in a Delhi five star hotel, paying Rs 1 lakh a night tariff.

Then again, whether it’s Pathanamthita or Thiruvananthapuram, the “veet-ammas” of Kerala are the ones who will see any candidate through. In both constituencies, the ready-to-wait housewives are beholden to the party which stood behind Swami Ayyappa in “his” hour of need.

Also, BJP’s alliance with the BJDS, will pay dividends. The BJDS represents the Sree Narayana Dharma Paripalana, a body of the ezhavas, the largest caste grouping in Kerala society. Palakkad and Trichur might go the NDA way because of the BJP-BJDS alliance.

But, if anybody should be blamed for a likely strong BJP showing in Kerala, it will have to be Pinarayi Vijayan, the ‘Navothanna Nayakan’ who built the Vanitha Madhil or Women’s Wall from Kasarkode to Kanyakumari in solidarity with the Supreme Court verdict on women’s entry into Sabarimala.

Pinarayi gambled his all, including political capital, in his progressive quest. But, at the end of the day, Pinarayi lost to a deity whose mythical powers far outstrip his, a mere mortal with grandiose claims to being ‘Navothanna Nayakan’, Superman! (IPA Service)