India cannot afford instability at the Centre. There should be either single-party rule or workable coalition. The coming years appear crucial.

Coming to present time, the third and largest phase in which 116 constituencies had gone to polls in 16 states and Union territories, voters have chosen Lok Sabha MPs for over 300 seats. Uptill April 23, the third phase involved 26 seats in Gujarat, 20 in Kerala, 14 each in Karnataka and Maharashtra, and scattered seats in key states such as Uttar Pradesh, Odisha, Bihar, Bengal and Chattisgarh. Of these BJP had performed impressively in Gujarat, Karnataka, Maharashtra, UP and Chattisgarh in 2014 and must defend over 60 sitting seats this time. Prospective losses here will have to be compensated in Odisha, Bengal and Kerala.

In Gujarat, the party will aim to repeat its 2014 clean sweep of 26 seats. The allure of voting for a compatriot PM will play out strongly among Gujaratis. However, the Congress cannot be written off after 2017 assembly polls when it nearly triggered an upset. Underlying issues like water scarcity, stagnant farm and dairy yields remain.

After two failed attempts in 2014 and 2016, BJP is making another spirited attempt to break into Kerala’s rigid LDF-UDF duopoly. It has campaigned hard on Sabrimala issue but may find itself in the reckoning in only two of three seats. Congress-led UDF has been boosted by Rahul Gandhi’s decision to contest from Wayanad even as an aggressive CPI-M finds itself at disadvantageous in Lok Sabha poll owing to its declining national stakes. Hoping that Lingayats anger over separate religion status has subsided and without JD(S) splitting Opposition votes. Congress is aiming to recover ground in the Mumbai, Karnataka and Hyderabad-Karnataka region.

In Western Maharashtra, both BJP - Shiv Sena and Congress-NCP are challenged by complaints from disillusioned voters of water scarcity. Across India, access to water is becoming a major campaign issue with many candidates facing citizen anger. The third phase in U.P. covers many Yadava bastions and SP will hope that Akhilesh—Mayawati joint rallies will convince Dalits to vote SP rather than BJP in the absence of BSP candidates. The battle ground will shift to Hindi heartland in the remaining four phases. BJP has fallen back these days on intense Hindutva—national security rhetoric, which seems to indicate uncertainty on whether taking up its development record can deliver the goods. This can be expected to hit a feverish pitch and sparks are certain to fly.

Apart from gathbandhans (alliances) in U.P, Bihar, Jharkhand, Maharashtra and Karnataka in varying degrees of effectiveness—in Maharashtra and Bihar, they could have done better—it is in South which may keep the BJP short of a majority. And, southern satraps may well play a significant role in national politics in the months ahead. Even if the BJP marginally increases its figure in Karnataka, given the Lingayat consolidation that has taken place in its favour; the south is not likely to add much to BJP’s overall tally.

And therein lies the rub. BJP’s tally in Hindi heartland and west India is likely to come down, given that it had a 100 % or 90% strike rate in 2014 in eight of these states—even if you factor in the undercurrent for Modi, if we assume a decline of say around five seats each in Rajasthan, M.P, Chattisgarh, Haryana, Gujarat, Maharashtra. Jharkhand and Bihar—it would mean a loss of around 35-40 seats. Going by first three phases of polling, there could be a slide of 30-35 seats in U.P.

BJP will make up some in Bengal and Odisha, where it has made an all out bid to increase its footprint, but this is not likely to compensate for the expected losses elsewhere. Given the strong reaction to the Citizenship Amendment bill in north-east, there is unlikely to be an accretion in its numbers there.(IPA Service)