Incidentally the third and largest phase of Lok Sabha polls witnessed about 66 per cent voting across 117 seats in 13 States and two Union Territories. The poll percentage for this phase showed a sharp drop of average 3.3 percent at national level. In 2014 it was 69.3 per cent. IN all the three phases of election the drop was around 3 per cent.

This drop is not uniform at state level. Uttar Pradesh where the survival of the BJP is at stake the polling percentage during third phase saw a drop from 61.48 per cent to 60.52 per cent. It registered a percentage of 58.56 during the fourth phase. Even in states where the BJP has strong organizational base, the percentage witnessed a fall.

In Kerala, where polling took place for all the 20 seats, the voting percentage was around 74 per cent. Around 58.96 per cent of the total registered voters across Gujarat cast their ballots. In the 2014 polls, the total voting percentage was 63.6 per cent in the home state of Modi. This has been happening when the Modi government and his BJP has been putting best efforts to motivate the voters to go to polling booths.

The RSS has even constituted booth level committees to ensure a fair turn out of the voters. Modi even appealed to the urban voters “not to stay back at home thinking I am winning”. This obviously implies that Modi does not intend to take any risk. Though Modi does not leave any opportunity from insulting and hurling jibes at the Mahagathbandhan and especially abuse the Congress leadership, this is really a serious development for him.

Though at his public meetings he claims to come back with overwhelming number of seats, the fact remains that he is scared of the emerging political scenario. This has happening at a time when the opposition is absolutely disorganized. They have failed to converge on a common minimum programme for the polls and the mahagathbandhan lacks a cohesive character. Different nature of magathbandhans have come up in different states. No state can claim that it hasa uniform state unit. Look at the gatbandhans of two states; UP and Bihar. While in UP it is out of alliance in Bihar it is a major partner.

In spite of this the BJP is facing a tough challenge from the opposition parties. The BJP leaders claim that the have fared well in all the three phases, the fact of the matter is all the three phases witnessed the nail-biting contest between the Mahagathbandhan and the BJP in which the alliance weighed heavily on the ruling party.

This election is about those who want to elect Narendra Modi as Prime Minister and those who don’t. There is no other factor. It ios interesting to watch that Modi’s religious and nationalist slogans have failed to evoke a positive response from the voters. The voters are quite skeptical of opening their mouth. They are scared of the saffron lynching brigade. The fear of reprisal is clearly writs large on their faces. If these mercenaries come to know that “we have not voted for the BJP” in that case they may thrash them.

In the first phase of 91 seats of Lok Sabha elections held on Thursday, a voter turnout of 69.43 per cent was recorded. In 2014, the turnout was recorded as 66.44 per cent across the nine phases. Communally-sensitive Kairana witnessed a sharp fall in poll percentage - from 73.10 per cent in 2014 to 67.46 per cent this time. Saharanpur recorded a 3.44 per cent lower turnout.

Telangana also witnessed a major drop in voting turnout. Out of 17 seats, not a single constituency could surpass 2014 turnout level of previous Andhra Pradesh. Whereas, Hyderabad reported more than 8 per cent lower turnout with 44.75 per cent in this elections. All five seats of Uttarakhand witnessed a slightly lower turnout than the 2014 Lok Sabha polls. Over 59.89 per cent of the 78.56 lakh voters exercised their votes on Thursday in comparison to 61.50 per cent in 2014.

This voting trend does not endorse the general perception that the first time youth voters have come out in large numbers. Modi has urged the first time voters to cast their votes in the memory of the soldiers killed in Pulwama. It was said that the wisdom and foresight of the first-time voters will play a major role in deciding whether India’s polity will be founded on peace, equity and cultural diversity or on religion, casteism and fanaticism. But this intriguingly does not appear to be happening.

Ever since the February 14 terror strike in Pulwama, the saffron brigade has been euphoric of a major success at the polls. Even Modi is ecstatic of the impending scenario. But the situation does not appear to be that rosy. Little doubt the peop0le are skeptical of the attitude and moves of Modi. The country is facing the worst agrarian crisis. But Modi government is least bothered of their plight. The worst effect of the agrarian crisis has been on women.Women farmers, farm widows, agricultural labourers have made their presence felt at recent protest marches and demonstrations. Women, from both cities and villages, have now started to surpass men in participating in the electoral process. IN the last three phases their participation was not encouraging.

Conventional wisdom about turnouts is wrong. It is hard to arrive at any specific conclusion about what the numbers mean for results. Both the major parties have been of wide support, but the ground level situation speaks otherwise. Since the voting percentage has been not so high the BJP leaders are happy that this does not point to anti-incumbency. But it is also a fact that voters have not been carried away by the high sounding cl;aims of Modi.(IPA Service)