Chances are that the Congress will increase its numbers in the Lok Sabha and, pollsters estimate, that it may go up to 140, thus becoming the second largest party. It may also try to stake its claim to form the government and seek support of likeminded parties. Whoever forms the government—BJP or the Congress—it will be a coalition and a weak one and may not last for more than a couple of years. A mid-term poll, therefore, appears inevitable.
While the Congress may have failed in stitching up alliances in some key states, it is aware that it will need all non-BJP forces on the same page to muster up numbers to keep Narendra Modi out. And regional forces conclude that in case of an hung Lok Sabha, if NDA is short, they could be major swing players.
All this has meant that in the final week of the elections, there are these seemingly paradoxically processes at play. On one hand, we are witnessing bitter and sharp campaigning against adversaries. On the other hand, there are also both public and private channels that have been opened to reach out to prospective allies.
Modi’s efforts to drive a wedge between Mayawati and Akilesh Yadav is not only an effort to win over her Jatav base in eastern Uttar Pradesh, but also send a signal that the BJP is willing to engage with the BSP.
The PM’s praise for Odisha CM Naveen Patnaik for his work to minimize the losses by cyclone Fani could be seen as signal that all doors are open. Mayawati, for her part, despite attacking Congress relentlessly, categorically said that her voters will support Rahul Gandhi in Amethi.
Meanwhile down south, Telangana Rashtra Samithi leader, K. Chandrashekhar Rao—who already has an understanding with the YSR Congress party to bargain as a collective block in Delhi—has reached out to DMK leader, M K Stalin, Kerala CM and CPI (M) leader, Pinarayi Vijayan, and is in touch with Karnataka CM, H D Kumaraswamy. Stalin and Kumaraswamy are part of the UPA; and the CPI (M) is firmly in the anti-BJP camp.
All this means that while parties are preparing for the outcome on May 23, they are also, already looking beyond May 23. In the coming few weeks, all forces will slowly explore options to advance their political interests. Indian politics has often thrown up surprises and it is best not to rule out any permutation and combination.
The meeting between political leaders are read as an exercise to figure out possible common ground after the opposition parties largely fought the elections on different platforms and some parties were not in direct communication with each other, given region rivalries and differing viewpoints.
Having emerged as a bridge of sorts among various opposition parties, Andhra CM and TDP leader Chandrababu Naidu met Congress President for discussion. They are learnt to have discussed the plan to call a meeting of the anti-BJP Bloc of around 22 parties tentatively on May 21. While voting will end on May 19, the result of mega contest will be declared on May 23. The discussions at this meeting before the poll outcome on May 23, are expected to facilitate a fast-track approach in meeting the challenge of a hung Lok Sabha. (IPA Service)
INDIA
ALL PARTIES ARE ASSESSING OPTIONS AFTER MAY 23
REGIONAL LEADERS TO PLAY MAJOR ROLE IN DECIDING NEW GOVERNMENT
Harihar Swarup - 2019-05-11 11:30
By the time this column appears in print only one phase of election—May 19—would have been left. What appears certain, and can be predicted with certainty, is that no party—neither the BJP nor the Congress-- is going to get a majority. Chances are that the BJP, along with its allies, may emerge as the single largest party and Narendra Modi may become the Prime Minister again but a weak one. Even senior leader of the BJP, Ram Madhav, has gone on record, saying that the BJP will not get majority. The Shiv Sena has also firmly indicated that there is no chance of BJP getting a majority. The BJP has inevitably to depend on other parties to form the government. That means lot of bargaining and horse trading.