There are all round signs of deceleration of the economy but the BJP ministers are complacent. One minister even said that the trains are full and the weddings are all taking place as scheduled - so where is the crisis? The sad fact is that when the patient that is the Indian economy is seriously ill and needs to the shifted to the ICU, the family members are saying that the illness is not at all serious — the gravity of the illness is just propaganda by the enemies of the family.

In such a mental state, no viable solution can emerge and that is what is happening with the present ruling leadership. Kashmir is returning to normal even though the clampdown on internet and media has crossed 100 days, the economy is more or less fine despite the consumer spending recording fall in rural areas for the first time in last four decades. Instead of going into the reasons for this fall, the Government has withdrawn the NSO data itself, though it was approved by the panel five months back. The Modi government now believes that such data and figures which do not project the centre in positive light, should not come out. In the same way, the data on employment generation was not officially released.

While, one after another, the sectors of economy are going downhill, the latest alarm signal has come from the power sector. The plants are being shut not because of coal supplies or electricity shortage, but due to lack of demand.

Reports say that the electricity demand curve, a key indicator of industrial and domestic load trends, is on a downward spiral, with a mounting list of 133 thermal power units across the country reported as shut down due to lack of demand.

As on November 11, of the 262 coal, lignite and nuclear units reported to be out-of-service for a variety of reasons, nearly half — or 133 units — were shut as operators were faced with low demand or were unable to ink pacts with distribution utilities for sale of power.

Of the country’s total installed generation capacity of 3,63,370 MW, the peak demand met was a little less than half at just around 1,88,072 MW on November 7, according to official data available with grid managers and analysed by The Indian Express.

A total of 119 thermal units across mostly India’s northern and western heartland were faced with “reserve shutdown,” a technical term for a unit shut down due to lack of demand, while another 14 units on account of developers not managing to ink power purchase agreements (PPAs — or commercial contracts) with electricity distribution utilities.

The all-India demand generally peaks in October and from mid-November onwards, as demand starts to taper off, but this year’s extended monsoon and early onset of winter has partly impacted this consumption trend.

Experts point out the electricity sector downturn is buttressed by broader data on the economy. The continuing struggle of capital goods firms, too, negates the industrial revival story. High frequency indicators of urban demand have weakened in recent months as reflected in contraction in sales of passenger vehicles and production of consumer durables. Among them, passenger car sales have contracted by double digits every month since April 2019, resulting in major car producers suspending factory production intermittently.

India’s economic growth has moved from not just being a jobless regime but to being a ‘job-loss’ one, suggests new research. In a study published in the Economic and Political Weekly, K.P. Kannan and G. Raveendran break down the latest Periodic Labour Force Survey (PLFS) findings to suggest that the Indian economy is losing its ability to absorb new entrants to the work-force with less-educated rural women suffering the most.

Combining historical National Sample Survey (NSS) employment data with the recently-released PLFS survey, the authors find that the ability of the Indian economy to absorb its growing working-age population has been steadily decreasing. In 2004-05, 58% of the population entering the workforce in the previous two decades were absorbed into the workforce but by 2011-12 this figure had fallen to 15% in 2011-12. In 2017-18, this figure turned negative (-5%) suggesting that some of the working-age population actually left the workforce. And all this has happened even while India recorded positive aggregate growth.

They estimate that the economy lost 6.2 million jobs between 2011-12 and 2017-18. Breaking down jobs by location, gender, education and sectors, they find that it was mostly the less educated (below secondary level) who lost jobs. Within this cohort, it was rural women who suffered the most (rural women's employment fell by 24.7 million).

Sectoral analysis of the data shows that the net job loss stems from losses in sectors such as agriculture, quarrying, mining and manufacturing. Taken together, job losses in these sectors accounted for 95% of the total job loss. According to the authors, this jobs crisis is a result of several structural and policy failures in agriculture, rural-to-urban migration and education.

What more can happen to underline that the economic crisis and the distress of the masses are reaching an explosive point. Throughout the world, massive demonstrations are being held against the ruling regime demanding end to austerity measures for the poor. In India, the battle is for just protecting the existing jobs and getting new jobs. All signs are there that the underprivileged masses are fed up at their distress level. January 8 all India general strike may be the beginning of the movement against the economic policies of the government. (IPA Service)