The first is electoral dividends, and the second is international criticism. The challenge to the BJP on the electoral front is evident from its recent defeats in the Jharkhand and Delhi assembly polls. These were preceded by setbacks for the BJP in Haryana where it failed to get a majority and in Maharashtra where it lost power to its former ally, the Shiv Sena.

After these four successive setbacks, the BJP will look forward to the Bihar elections later this year where it hopes to redeem itself in the company of the Janata Dal (United) chief minister, Nitish Kumar. But it is the latter who will be in the driver’s seat in the state as he has been since 2015 though with different allies.

But if Bihar proves to be only a partially won battle for the BJP since the chief minister’s position will elude it, the party will face a much tougher challenge in next door West Bengal in 2021 where it will come up against the redoubtable Mamata Banerjee.

Although the BJP has notched up notable gains in the state by replacing the communists and the Congress as the main opponent of the Trinamool Congress, its chances of piping the latter at the post are remote.

The reason why the BJP may stumble before reaching the finishing line is the controversy over the three measures pertaining to residency – the Citizenship Amendment Act (CAA), the National Register of Citizens (NRC) and the National Population Register (NPR).

Since the two opposing sides – the Trinamool Congress and the BJP – will be at loggerheads over the CAA and related issues with their apocalyptic visions of the Constitution being undermined (Trinamool) or hordes of interlopers masquerading as citizens (BJP), next year’s election in West Bengal is bound to be a close one.

But given the intensity of the confrontation between the BJP and its opponents all over the country with Muslim women taking to launching street protests as in Delhi’s Shaheen Bagh and in other cities, only a diehard Right-winger will expect West Bengal to take a complete about-turn from its earlier Leftism, even if it has become considerably diluted of late.

One factor which the BJP may find discomfiting is the constant criticism which the party is facing from prestigious newspapers and magazines abroad as well as from the UN and other international bodies.

The BJP may dismiss the censure from Turkey, Malayasia and Iran over the Delhi riots as an expression of Islamic solidarity – a charge which will find support among the RSS/BJP’s traditional Hindu vote bank – but it will be less easy to brush off the disapproval of the British MPs, the UN human rights commission and the US commission on international religious freedom.

It is not surprising, therefore, that external affairs minister S Jaishankar has spoken about how India is getting to know who India’s “real friends” are. There is little doubt that he will count among them the European far right parliamentarians who were taken on an all-expenses paid junket to Kashmir followed by a visit by members of another more broad-based group since both testified to the return of normalcy in the Union territory.

But unless the arrested Kashmiri politicians and activists are released and an election is held which is palpably free and fair, the Modi government will continue to be under pressure on the human rights front in Kashmir. Taken together with the unease that is being voiced over the citizenship laws, which has been exacerbated by the Delhi riots, the government will not be able to escape easily the stigma of pursuing a right-wing, majoritarian course.

It is difficult to say what effect the criticism abroad will have on the elections. It is possible that apart from the intelligentsia, the ordinary people will have little interest in what the New York Times, or the UN Human Rights Commission, have to say. The government can also present the disparagement of foreigners as not only biased and uninformed, but also an uncalled for interference in India’s right to do what it pleases.

A hint of such a tactic is available from the adroitness with which the BJP government in Gujarat turned the accusations against it of aiding and abetting the rioters in 2002 into an assault on the state’s asmita (honour) in order to win an election in that fateful year.

What is more, since the Muslims are playing a leading role in the agitation against the citizenship laws, the RSS/BJP has found it convenient to brand it as a pan-Islamic conspiracy, labelling it as Caliphate 2.0 with a Union minister expressing the fear that the Shaheen Bagh-type gatherings are a breeding ground of suicide bombers.

It is anybody’s guess to what extent such propaganda inside the country will influence the voters vis-à-vis the adverse comments against the government which are being voiced abroad. But it is clear that the two sides will continue to be engaged in an intense battle of wits in the foreseeable future. (IPA Service)