Lockdown shattered the economy with life coming to standstill. It is not that lockdown has not played a role in saving lives of the people. In my previous article ‘Was Absolute Lockdown Imperative?’ I had argued that India should have proceeded cautiously and imposed stringent containment measures selectively.

It is true that COVID virus did not originate here. It was imported by travellers coming from abroad. In late December 2019 reports of COVID-19 outbreak in Wuhan province in central China. On January 29 WHO warned of outbreak of pandemic. On January 30 first case of Coronavirus infection was reported in India when a student from Wuhan University returned to his home town in Kerala. This should have been a wakeup call. India should have suspended visas for nationals of all COVID-19 infected countries instead of waiting for March 13.

All international flights to and fro Coronavirus infected countries could have been suspended instead of waiting for March 22. Indians and persons of Indian origin residing in COVID infected countries and who were desirous of coming to India should have been brought back in phases, screened, quarantined and treated if found infected by the virus. Foreigners residing in India could have been evacuated. After taking these measures, government should have thought of selectively imposing lockdown, after passing of Union Budget, which was absolutely necessary, on March 23 by the Parliament.

However, India has been successful in arresting the exponential growth in the spread of Coronavirus by imposing countrywide strict lockdown since March 24. Various mathematical models have argued that had there been no countrywide lockdown imposed the cases of infection could have been much higher. The argument is that doubling rate of cases prior to lockdown was within a span of 3.4 days which have now increased to about 15 days. As on June 2 the recovery rate was 48.07 per cent and fatality rate has decreased to 2.82 per cent as compared to the world’s fatality rate of 6.19 per cent.

About 73 per cent of COVID deaths were linked to co-morbidity cases. Upgradation of health infrastructure has taken place and testing facilities increased. Positive impact of lockdown was seen in pollution free air and clean river water. Spitting in public is now a crime. People developed the habit of wearing masks and hand gloves, frequent cleaning of hands and maintaining social distances, which was necessary to break the chain of transmission and not to effect community transfer of the infection. Now the infection has been confined to containment zone clusters – red and orange.

With the easing of lockdown, the cases of infection have shown a phenomenal rise. India now ranks fifth in the world’s most infected countries. According to the director of All India Institute of Medical Sciences, Dr Randeep Guleria the situation is to peak is likely to come June-July as per mathematical modelling data. Following Dr Guleria’s statement, the medical superintendent at Safdarjung Hospital in Delhi Dr Balwinder Arora qualified that after the peak in June-July herd immunity may begin to show up in August. The US-based Centre for Disease Dynamics and Economic Policy (CDDEP) has made a more frightful analysis saying even with “hard lockdown, continued social distancing and isolation of cases”, COVID cases will peak to about 111 crore by September. The Centre for Infectious Disease Research and Policy (CIDRAP) gives a longer tenure of next 18 to 24 months for the prevalence of coronavirus before gradually diminishing.

These are mathematical models which have their inherent weakness. Country cannot be kept indefinitely under lockdown. It has to unlock. The Prime Minister announced Rs 20 lakh crore package, mostly fiscal incentives and easy credit, to give a boost to the economy. The package covers mostly the micro, small and medium sized industries (MSMEs), non-banking finance and housing finance corporations, micro finance institutions, power distribution companies, contractors and real estate projects, industrial clusters, commercial mining in coal and mineral sector, defence production, space and atomic energy and encouraging investments in health sector. Easy credit and insurance are assured to farm sector to boost rural economy.

But capital and liquidity are not enough to restart the economy without adequate labour force and generation of demand. The migrant workers who had come to cities faced difficult times during lockdown. They were without job and unable to pay rent for their accommodation. Practically they were on the street. The government provided free cooked food, but that was not enough for a living. In such a situation they were anxious to go to their native place, but were unable to go as inter-state borders were sealed. But belatedly when special shramik trains were arranged, most of them had to pay for their ticket, even though it was decided that they should travel free and given free food. There was a lack of coordination between the Centre and the states, even though it was decided that Railway would bear 85 per cent of the cost and the remaining 15 per cent by the state government concerned.

Most of the migrant workers are unwilling to come back as the distress they suffered still haunts them and the future looks dark with growing number of COVID cases. Government should think more rural employment schemes like MNREGA or encouraging industries in rural areas.

In fact there is no specific law to deal with a pandemic situation in the country. Public Health (Prevention, Control and Management of Epidemics, Bio-terrorism and Disasters) Bill 2017 has not yet been placed in the Parliament. The Union Home Ministry invoked Disaster Management Act 2005 (DMA -2005) and included COVID-19 outbreak as “notified disaster” and a “critical medical condition or pandemic”. It delegated powers to the Union Health and Family Welfare Ministry to enhance preparedness and containment of COVID-19. The state governments were asked to invoke the archaic Epidemic Disease Act 1897. These two laws acting in tandem brought Indian Penal Code into operation to facilitate the clamping of lockdown.

These laws gave more powers to the government to enforce lockdown without corresponding duties to be performed for the people. Even the single page archaic Epidemic Disease Act 1897 with only for sections is not sufficient to deal with the current pandemic situation. Only states were allowed to draw from their Disaster Response Fund for necessary activities. Laws with only rights of the state without any corresponding obligations is likely to cause a paradoxical situation and more so in the process of unlocking. (IPA Service)