With no opposition challenge on the political horizon and the Chanakya of BJP, Amit Shah, publically announcing that Kumar would lead the NDA in the November assembly elections, Nitish is certainly in an enviable position. It is only a tactical shift in the stand of the NDA allies that could eventually bring out any change.

Though at present no such sign is visible, the sources in NDA maintain that a simmering discontent has been fast brewing up on the issue of leadership inside the alliance. If the signs are decoded in the right spirit, it is clear that LJP and a big chunk of the upper caste BJP leaders are against projecting Nitish as the chief ministerial candidate. They feel that Nitish has been exploiting their weakness and the vulnerability of the opposition to pressurise Amit Shah and Narendra Modi to accept him as the leader.

As the elections approach, pulls and pressures are building up within the NDA alliance. Both Chirag Paswan and Nitish Kumar have their calculations. Officially the BJP is finding itself in a .very tight situation. State BJP leaders are completely in a state of confusion. Apparently the central leadership of the party is busy in balancing the crisis.

What has indeed ruffled the central leadership is Nitish’s decision not to concede too many seats to the BJP. Close aides of Nitish have already made it clear that it is unwilling to share any of the 12 seats in the Bihar Legislative Council under the nomination quota, which is likely to be filled very soon. There is the lingering suspicion that Nitish was using the prevailing political scenario to consolidate his own position.

LJP president Chirag Paswan has been quite upset at the differential treatment being meted out to Nitish. He nurses the feeling that Nitish has wasted precious time, which could have been used to carry development work and refurbish the image of Bihar. Chirag has also been consistently attacking the law and order situation under Nitish Kumar’s government.

His attack has incidentally coincided with Nitish’s plan to launch the campaign “Vikaswad Versus Laluvad”, “15 years of NDA versus 15 years of RJD” and “LED versus lantern”. Nevertheless, even his avowed detractors concede that Lalu has one positive contribution to Bihar. He politically empowered the poor. But Nitish even though belonged to the backward caste, did not work for empowerment of the EBC and Dalits whom he claims to represent.

Though this campaign could not finally take off, a section of the BJP leaders feel that his Lalu bashing has few takers. During the last 15 years of his rule Nitish has not succeeded in leaving a mark on the minds of the people. Though his supporters and friends eulogised him as messiah of poor and “sushasanbabu” none of his programmes and policies have left any significant impact. If Lalu was accused of indulging in fodder scam, Nitish’srule would also be remembered for many scams. The sex scandal at the shelter homes and srijan scam were the worst incidents.

It is not that only Chirag is upset at Nitish, even his father, Union Minister Ram Vilas Paswan, has been highly critical of him. Some time back he had commented that Nitish government had not fully procured PDS grains from the Centre. This had infuriated Nitish and his supporters. They had taken it as a personal attack on Nitish.

Nitish’s comrades also question the political status and stature of Chirag. They argue that he is still a political nonentity. In fact, Nitish stand not to concede even a single MLC seat to the NDA allies is aimed at showing Chirag his right place. Meanwhile, Chirag’s note demanding more assembly seats than the JD(U) has been contemplating has irked the comrades of Nitish.

The JD(U) is determined to contest not less than 140 seats. Yet another factor that has severely strained the relation between Nitish and Chirag is the BJP’s keenness to allow Chirag an active participation in the matter of seat sharing, which is not liked by JD(U) leadership. With six Lok Sabha members, the LJP would like to contest not less than 40 seats. The JD(U) is vehemently opposed to it. If the BJP agrees to accommodate the demand of LJP, in that case the JD(U) would have to be content with less number of seats.

In the changed political situation Nitish desires to have his own government in Bihar. This can only be achieved if his party contest more seats. For having a simple majority the JD(U) would need 122 seats. Significantly one discordant note has been added by Ram Vilas to the issue by saying "We had done spectacularly well in 2014 when Nitish Kumar was not with us. In the Bihar assembly polls, the following year we had no problems whatsoever with regard to seat sharing.”

The political scenario has been further complicated by the assertion of the RJD leadership that there is no alternative to Tejashwi Yadav. This obviously implied that RJD was not for forging a grand alliance and going to the polls with the slogan to install Tejashvi as the chief minister. This stand of RJD would simply facilitate Nitish to get a walk over as Tejashvi is not seen as a mature and astute politician. He has been basking in the glory of his father Lalu. It is uncertain how far this pedigree would help him.

Alliance partners, such as the Rashtriya Lok Samta Party led by Upendra Kushwaha, Vikassheel Insaan Party (VIP) led by Mukesh Sahani and Hindustani Awam Morcha (Secular) led by former Jitan Ram Manjhi, are in favour of projecting former JD(U) president Sharad Yadav as the opposition’s chief ministerial face.

The Congress is also not in favour of throwing its weight behind Tejashvi. It has made it clear that the leadership issue in the grand alliance is still open. Even the common people are not sure of Tejashvi posing a serious challenge to Nitish Kumar. The political circles are demoralised at the negative attitude of Tejashvi towards opposition fraternity. It is alleged that since he nurses the ego of becoming the chief minister, he has not been creating obstacle in the path of opening discussion with Kanhaiya Kumar for giving shape to the grand alliance.

The leaders of the Left parties have also been facing severe criticism from their rank and file for not taking any initiative to float a grand alliance of democratic and Left forces. They hold the view that with the popularity of Nitish on steep decline this was the right occasion to unite and retrieve the state from the grip of the NDA, especially the BJP. But it is the personal ego and lust for power of these leaders that would eventually offer the state on a silver platter to the BJP. (IPA Service)