President Trump is proposing to postpone America’s Federal elections this November 3 on the ground of voting mechanism. In a Tweet he has suggested voting to be postponed so that people could vote in security and safety. Since 1788 when the American Constitution had come into effect there has never been a departure from its set date for election.

President Trump’s suggestion for postponement has come after a release of the latest performance of the American economy showing an annualised contraction by an unprecedented 33% in the second quarter of the year. As a measure of abundant caution, let me add that this does not exactly mean the American economy has shrunk by a third but only a measure of fall in growth rate compared with the same period last year.

Nevertheless, the pundits are saying this is the worst performance of the US economy ever since quarterly data had been prepared since 1947. They estimate the US economy to have shrunk by 12% during worst days of the Great Depression years in 1930.

Economic woes, mishandling of the pandemic and large scale rise in the number of coronavirus cases, record deaths in the US and racial clashes have all worked to bring the country to close to anarchy. The mood has sunk from sing along rise of the American economy to one of deep pessimism. The sweet smell of success and possible win has now perceived to be one of defeat and loss for the incumbent president.

Hence, he is searching for alibis to postpone elections. In the Tweet Trump has observed that with universal mail-in voting in place, as opposed to absentee voting, the election would be inaccurate and fraudulent, with these last two words all in caps to highlight his concern.

Former US presidents do not as a matter of courtesy enter into political controversy. However, the situation is so bad that former president Barack Obama has come out with strong criticisms of the current administration and President Trump himself.

The President’s suggestion has however not found favour with the leaders of his own party, who have strongly come out against it publicly. A senior Republican Party leader has said this “was not a good idea even as a joke”. Needless to say the Democratic Party has opposed it stridently.

The President’s umbrage has been at the provision for distant voting through the universal mail-in voting. However, experts in the United States have all confirmed that Absentee voting and Universal mail-in voting have no difference and have the same authenticity.

Politicians have criticised Trump bid as unconstitutional. They have argued that elections are mandated by the US Congress under long-established law. The Congress alone has the powers to decide on postponement and President cannot do any such changes on his own.

President Trump fears a complete reversal of voting pattern and support for him this time and he fears this to show in poor results. Hence, he hopes for an economic revival soon and a postponement would possibly rehabilitate sentiments by then and help him win the votes again. The wide-spread sufferings are for sure going against the administration as revealed in the severe down-turn in the US economy in the latest quarters.

What is worst, unemployment has soared on the back of the coronavirus pandemic. On current reckoning no less than 17% of the workforce are jobless and seeking unemployment benefits. As the numbers of infected rose, wide swathes of the economy went into lock-down and that brought production and employment severely down.

According to the US National Bureau of Economic Research the current contraction is far worse than during the last financial meltdown of 2008 and the recession in its wake. During the worst period of that crisis, the economy had contracted by just around 8.5%. With the sharp shrinkage currently over several consecutive quarters, the economy is said to have entered a period of recession, which is when the GDP falls for two consecutive quarters.

President Trump had pitched his re-election bid on the strength of the US economic performance and until late last year the US economy was the star performer. Unemployment had gone down to record lows and growth was also robust.

While the large US corporations have diversified income streams and could survive the recession with their deep pockets, it is small businesses which are facing a virtual economic epidemic.

What has happened now is that small businesses which provide the largest number of employment had been hit worst. More than 100,000 small businesses have already closed and many more are on the way. The tourism and hospitality industry has been hit hardest.

In the situation President Trump is clearly sensing his potential defeat at the November presidential election and thus seeking to defer the democratic mandate until he feels he could comfortably win with a hope for economic turnaround. But is that likely? Not, going by present trends. (IPA Service)