The CMIE report figures make it clear that the present slump is continuing and despite the stimulus announced for the industry and the MSMEs, the impact has not been adequate. The job losses in the salaried sector can not be made up in a short period of time, and the losses continue for quite some time unless the demand position improves and the company managements come to the view that they can sustain the operations without incurring continuing cash losses.

As per thereport, 17.7 million salaried jobs ere lost in April and 0.1 million in May but in June there was a gain of 3.9 million jobs. In June, the lockdown was eased in many states of the country and the economic activities resumed. But certainly, the companies with salaried employees found the environment not conducive for continuing operations and they sacked or laid off salaried staff. In some cases, the private units shut down their operations till the situation improves.

The job situation is precarious now and the job losers are in worse situation because the covid pandemic shows no signs of abating and unless the government infuses regular funds at the hands of the poor and jobless, there will be no pick up in consumption and consequent demand. The experts are saying that the covid may pick up in September and October, if that happens, there will be more containment and restrictions on economic activities in some states. That will mean that the pick up in the economic activities will not take place as expected.

CMIE estimates 21 per cent of all employment in India is in the form of salaries jobs, which hare more resilient in the face of economic shocks than other forms of work.

“While salaried jobs are not lost easily, once lost they are also far more difficult to retrieve. Therefore, their ballooning numbers are a source of worry,” CMIE said. Such jobs were nearly 19 million, or 22 per cent, below their average in FY20.

India began a nationwide lockdown on March 25 to curb the pandemic and started relaxing it in phases in May, leading to an upsurge in economic activity in June. States imposed localized shutdowns in July to quell fresh outbreaks, denting the revival trend.

Overall, CMIE estimates, most of the employment that was lost immediately after the imposition of the nationwide lockdown has been restored. CMIE had earlier estimated 121.5 million jobs were lost in the first month of the lockdown in April. This loss narrowed down to 100.3 million in May which further narrowed down significantly to 29.9 million in June and now to just 11 million in July.

“The recovery is largely in informal jobs. The situation has worsened for the relatively better jobs, i.e. salaried jobs. While jobs have recovered, this recovery has left out healthier, salaried jobs,” it said.

While in April, 30 per cent of the employed persons had lost their employment, by July less than 3 per cent were bereft of their source of livelihood, CMIE said, adding at 11 million job losses, it is still a significant setback.

According to CMIE, the recovery in jobs reflects, to a great extent, an unlocking of the economy from the draconian cessation of practically all economic activities save a few in late March and through most of April. (IPA Service)