Paswan represented the aspirations of the rich and upwardly Dalits, which has a major social and economic difference from the poor and lower middle class Dalits. Though his son Chirag Paswan has been striving to bridge the gap between the two sections, the possibilities appear to be remote. A fortnight ago, before his death Paswan had made it clear that he would stand by any decision his son Chirag Paswan took on Bihar. It was in fact aimed at sending a strong message to put to rest all speculation about whether he was uneasy over his son Chirag’s aggressive posturing against Bihar CM Nitish Kumar. But at the same time it would be wrong to construe that it has boosted the image and stature of Chirag in the eyes of the dalit voters.

Dalit vote would undoubtedly be the crucial deciding factor, but it is not only their vote that will decide the election verdict. LJP candidates need the votes of other castes primarily of the backwards castes, A senior JD(U) leader echoed that Paswan’s death would have no effect on the votes that the LJP wanted from anti-incumbency. But the question is of the core Dalit voter. There are two possibilities. One, that they may rally behind his son who clearly was his chosen one. But there is also the question that Chirag is a two-time MP, less grounded among people, a big city boy. Will the core Dalit voter trust him? Which of these two scenarios play out will be crucial for the LJP’s fortunes,” he said.

Of course sympathy for Paswan will be a factor, but it depends on Chirag to what extent he manages to mould this emotion in his favour. It remains to be seen whether there is any sympathy factor that will translate into votes for the LJP. Paswan was a dalit stalwart in contemporary India, but it is also a fact that he could not cultivate his own independent dalit base. His Lok Janasakti Party (LJP) might have won six of the seven seats it contested in the 2019 Lok Sabha election, the credit for this gain goes to Narendra Modi. It would not be fair to attribute the victory to Paswan.

The Paswans are the biggest Dalit community in the state, forming 4.5 per cent of the overall population. Chirag believes that there is enough of an anti-incumbency wave against Nitish Kumar. He is right. But it is a herculean task for him to use this. It would naïve to believe that Nitish would leave the space for Chirag to exploit. No doubt Nitish is the most hated politician in Bihar at this point of time. He did not stand by the migrant labourers during the period of crisis. The migrant labourers accused him of betraying their trust. In fact while coming to Bihar during the crisis, most of the labourers had vowed to teach him a lesson.

Though the BJP continued with its rhetoric that Nitish was the chief ministerial candidate of the NDA, the soft attitude and approach of the BJP towards Chirag raises enough doubt on the intentions of the saffron leadership. It is even said that Chirag might have been forced to retrace his step of LJP contesting the elections on its own if the BJP leadership would have sincerely taken up the issue of reconciliation with the senior Paswan. On the contrary it allowed the situation to drift. It is alleged that Amit Shah resorted to this only with the mission to show Nitish his stature and place.

Nevertheless if the sources are to be believed a section of the BJP leaders soft towards Chirag nurse the feeling that his image of a Shahar ka Ladka ( City Boy) may create some problem for him as the Dalits who constitute 16 per cent of the population may not connect themselves with him. If LJP performs well in the elections, he might as well bargain with NDA in Bihar or he may go with the Grand Alliance. While his father was actively involved in Bihar politics, till a few years back, Chirag did not try to carve out a place for himself in the state. It is the social base enjoyed by a leader that defines his political statute. Chirag has not even made any effort to make him acceptable as the leader by his own caste men Dusadh.

It cannot be denied that senior Paswan suffered with same malaise. He was a big leader but his social base was confined to Paswans. He could not make the entire dalit community rally behind him. The question that is being raised in the political circle is whether Chirag will manage to win the mahadalit, a new dalit conglomeration of 22 castes created by Nitish Kumar. He had left Paswans out of the new class of Mahadalits. Nitish has been banking on the members of this section. He even offered financial assistance to Mahadalits..

He has also helped create a new class “Pasmanda Musalman” of poor Muslims headed by Ejaj Ahmed and Ali Anwar. Both were nominated to Rajya Sabha. But this could not be given an institutional shape. Naturally how far these two conglomerates would serve the interest of Nitish is not sure. He never allowed the LJP legislative wing in Bihar to grow.

With the accusation being levelled against BJP leader Amit Shah of trying to cut Nitish to the size, the state BJP leaders have unleashed the bogey of LJP being guided by an ‘unknown hand with the mind of Prashant Kishor’. BJP leaders are finding it difficult to explain why the LJP is contesting the Bihar assembly elections on its own despite being a constituent of the NDA. It is also being said that if the BJP does not approve of the action of Chirag to contest on its own, then in that case why the NDA leadership is not asking the LJP to quit the NDA. This has already damaged the trust between the BJP and the JD(U). It is generally believed that Chirag Paswan has been propped up by the BJP.

Meanwhile the action of Chirag to induct BJP senior leaders into its fold and planning to nominate them, has added to the speculation that LJP is fighting the proxy war on behalf of the BJP. During the last couple of days at least seven prominent BJP leaders, one of even national level, Chaurasia, have joined the LJP. As the Assembly polls reaching closer, the BJP has started appearing less and less as a coalition partner, instead surfacing as a challenger trying to dictate the state politics. A simmering sentiment prevails in the BJP ranks that Nitish “needs to be taught a lesson and now is the time. (IPA Service)