Already the hill Tripura is witnessing rise of political temperatures amid the Coronavirus pandemic, which is more concentrated in the plain areas as of now. Now, the plain areas too are slowly witnessing the gradual rise of political temperatures due to the upcoming urban polls. Amid all this, the ruling BJP is facing a dissent from a section of its own MLAs, who are now camping in Delhi to raise their concerns with the central leadership of the party. The dissent has been particularly aimed at the chief minister Biplab Deb. Around 8 MLAs have been camping in Delhi to meet with senior leaders — with no fruitful results yet.

It is true that there have been a list of many allegations against the BJP-IPFT government led by Biplab Deb. One major allegation is the rise of attacks on opposition supporters and senior leaders. Both the CPM and Congress have been making these allegations and attacking the government for its failure to curb the political attacks on its supporters and leaders. Another allegation is that Tripura still remains one of the states with the highest percentage of unemployment in the country. BJP came to power for the first time in the state with its major promise to reduce the high unemployment rate of the state. As of now, it hasn’t been that successful — a major reason for rising discontent against the Biplab Deb government.

Amid all these, the state has been facing the worldwide Coronavirus pandemic and there have been reports and allegations against the government for its failure to efficiently handle the pandemic. However, it would be completely incorrect to say that either the government failed or it’s doing nothing. Biplab Deb himself has been touring the corners of the state to enquire about the situation. Importantly, in terms of testing, Tripura has done well.

However, as of late, the rate of testing in the state has declined — a serious concern for the state. Rate of positivity among testing has risen above 5% in recent times — which means the state has to increase the number of testing rates. Also a concern is that there is no regular health minister in the state — the health portfolio has been with the chief minister since last year after Sudip Roy Barman was removed from the post. The present MLAs camping in Delhi are led by Sudip himself. He has been quite critical of the government and during the coronavirus pandemic, he had openly criticised the health department for mismanagement at the GB Pant Hospital, the state’s major hospital run by the state itself.

Many of the MLAs camping in Delhi joined the BJP in 2017 under the leadership of Sudip Barman leaving Trinamool Congress. Notably, Sudip and his associates left the Congress in 2016 to join the Trinamool Congress in an open rally held in Agartala where Trinamool Supremo and West Bengal Chief Minister Mamata Banerjee herself was present.

The demand of these MLAs camping in Delhi is to change the chief minister of the state — a demand, as reported, has been ruled out by the BJP’s top leadership. Not only this, already crackers have been emerging among the dissident groups. One of the MLAs camping in Delhi, Ram Prasad Paul, who has been a long timer in BJP with RSS background, has said that he doesn’t support the claim to change the chief minister, as reported today by a leading daily of the state. It means he has separated himself from the dissident group led by Sudip Barman — which is now left with around only 7 MLAs. Although the group has claimed support of some other MLAs, who are not camping in Delhi. According to state media and political circles, a cabinet minister too isn’t happy with the chief minister. But the way central leadership has made its intentions clear, it has now become difficult for the group to keep its support together.

In the Tripura assembly, BJP presently has 36 MLAs — backed by 8 MLAs of its unhappy ally, IPFT — while opposition CPM has 16. Some reports claim that IPFT leadership is also secretly offering the dissident group its support — but this support won’t benefit them. If the dissident group leaves BJP and IPFT withdraws support, BJP will still be able to form the government — as the dissident group in BJP (estimated to be 7, based on camping in Delhi) will lose their seats due to the anti-defection law. As a result, the assembly strength will be reduced to 53 and BJP still will have a majority with 29 MLAs on its side.

In case if the dissident group gains some more members, there is a possibility that the government may fall — but they won’t be able to form a new government, as CPM isn’t likely to support a government, headed by those who always have been strong anti-CPM leaders plus supported by IPFT, the tribal party considered by the Left party as its strong opponent in the tribal belt. If this happens, new elections will be inevitable and these dissident MLAs aren’t eager to face midterm elections — as they fear this would only benefit the opposition CPM, which, after being in sleepy mode, has been active across the state by holding protests against the failures of the state government. Notably, CPM is gaining support among the masses — after witnessing heavy bleeding of its support after the 2018 assembly polls, which was also evident in the 2019 Lok Sabha elections too.

Lastly, as of now, there is no immediate threat to Biplab Deb — as the dissident group itself has failed to gain the support of the party high command. Instead, some of them may even face party action for openly talking to the media about the need of replacing Biplab Deb. But, the ruling BJP should take this development as a warning. At a time when there have been allegations against the state government being in-effective, as of lately, during the pandemic, such news of open internal rivalries have chances to damage the image of the government. Also, the ruling BJP may suffer losses in the upcoming ADC and urban polls as opposition CPM too has been active across the state, both in plains and hills. It’s high time for the state BJP to introspect rather than being complacent. (IPA Service)