The political bouncer cannot but stun the rival United Democratic Front (UDF) led by the Congress. There is distinct unease in the UDF camp although the front leaders are trying to make light of the significant political development.

In a big relief to the CPI(M), which heads the LDF, all the allies have, at last, welcomed the Jose faction’s entry into the LDF. The CPI, for instance, would have preferred to induct the Jose faction a bit later. But the party went along with the general consensus for quick induction.

Another ally, the Nationalist Congress Party (NCP) still has reservations. And the party voiced its misgivings at the LDF meeting on Thursday. NCP state president T P Peethambaran expressed the party’s fears over the Pala constituency, which it holds at present. But Chief Minister Pinarayi Vijayan neatly negotiated the ‘googly’ by saying that seat division for the assembly polls can be discussed at the appropriate time.

The Jose faction is the second party to switch its allegiance from the UDF to the LDF after the LDF came to power. The party’s induction into the left alliance in record time testifies to its influence and strong voter base in central Kerala, the LDF’s weak spot.

The other party which became an ally of the LDF, the Loktantrik Janata Dal (LJD) was not so lucky. It had to wait for a longer period to become a left ally. Of course, the preferential treatment to the Jose faction can be attributed to the larger vote bank it commands, especially in a region where the LDF is still not much of a force.

Conversely, the voter base of the UDF will suffer a further shrink with the crossover of the Jose faction to the LDF. The UDF has now become a three-member alliance, with only the Indian Union Muslim League (IUML) being the sole ally with a strong vote bank especially in Malappuram district.

The UDF’s woes will deepen with the PJ Joseph faction of the KC(M) which is with the front staking claim for all the seats in central Kerala held by the undivided KC(M). The demand cannot but cause concern to the Congress which is hoping to help itself to a larger share of the KC(M) seats.

Now that the Jose faction has become an ally, the CPI(M) thinks that the LDF’s continuity in power is more or less assured. The LDF’s hopes are not entirely misplaced.

But there are still a few imponderables. The big question is: Can Jose K Mani bring with him the bigger slice of the KC(M) vote bank? Jose has no doubts whatsoever about it.

But the situation on the ground may be slightly different. A sizable section of the KC(M) rank and file is still emotionally linked to the UDF . The reason is simple: after all, the KC(M) was a part of the UDF for 38 years., and the late KM Mani played a pivotal role in its formation and consolidation. If they refuse to transfer their loyalties to the LDF, Jose’s calculations can still go awry.

That being the ground reality, a lot of will depend on the Jose faction’s show in the local bodies elections likely to be held either by November end or in December. A good performance will, needless to say, increase Jose’s bargaining power vis-a-vis the LDF. In other words, Jose has to prove his mettle in the immediate electoral battle to justify his claim that his party will prove to be the game changer in Kerala politics. (IPA Service)