Significantly the 2021 polls will be the first without the two icons Karunanidhi and Jayalalithaa and would be an acid test for the AIADMK and DMK leadership. In fact none of the parties have charismatic leadership. Also, no party had done the hat trick in Tamil Nadu so far.

Though the fight is between the two major Dravidian parties – there are two X factors. The first is Sasikala Natarajan, companion and confidante of Jayalalithaa for years. Sentenced for four years on a disproportionate assets case, she will come out in February 2021. She has enough money and political skills to either take over the AIADMK or join hands with her nephew TTV Dinakaran who has floated an outfit (Amma Makkal Munnetra Kazhagam) of which Sasikala is the chief.

Sasikala has kept her cards close to her chest. ‘Chinnamma’, as she is called, she has many loyalists within the AIADMK, as she was a major force during Jayalalithaa’s time.

Sasikala’s re -entry at this time might ruffle many feathers .The only consolation is that as per law she cannot contest for the next six years. The party backed Sasikala soon after the demise of Jayalalithaa, but after her sentence, it united under E. Palaniswamy (EPS). The chief minister believes that his government has managed to deliver on several fronts, including the COVID-19 crisis. He has strengthened himself within the party and the government.

Secondly, it is not clear whether ‘Chinnamma’ will continue to have the same clout among the influential Thevar community, whom she empowered earlier.

Thirdly, Sasikala could also break the AIADMK and draw the disgruntled elements in AIADMK to her side.

Fourthly, the party faces several other factors including anti-incumbency, internal instability, the absence of ‘a charismatic leader, and the onslaught of DMK. The DMK has been painting the EPS government as Prime Minister Modi’s pawn. The BJP has so far controlled the AIADMK government from Delhi and also worked for keeping it untied. Currently, the chief minister EPS has a good equation with the Centre.

The BJP has no interest in dealing with Sasikala or her nephew.

TTV Dinakaran. The sudden raid on Sasikala’s property in Poes Garden last month reveals the BJP strategy. Sasikala plans to move into the palatial mansion which she is currently constructing opposite Jaya's house in Poes Garden. About 64 of her properties have also been attached.

The second unknown factor is the Tamil superstar Rajnikant. Though he is depending on his fan clubs, it is not known whether he has the skills to organize and run his proposed party. Though wooed by the Congress and the BJP, only in 2017, he announced his intention to launch his party. In 2020, March he announced his proposed party would contest all the 234 seats in the Assembly elections. Rajinikanth is now focused on strengthening Rajini Makkal Mandrams (a political variant of his fan clubs).

He also stated that issues such as power- sharing in case of an alliance with another superstar Kamal Hassan who has floated his Makkal Needhi Maiam (MNM) last year could be discussed only ahead of the polls. Together the two superstars would certainly draw a huge crowd but it is unknown about their vote-catching capacity. Rajni lacks people contact due to Covid 19. Kamal’s party got just 2 percent of the votes in the 2019 Lok Sabha polls and failed to win any seat.

Rajni wants to fill up a huge political vacuum after the exit of the two icons- Jayalalithaa and the DMK patriarch M. Karunanidhi. “This is the opportune time to create a movement (to oust the Dravidian behemoths] If not now, it will be never,” he commented some time ago. He once declared that he would not project himself as Chief Minister Candidate and would prefer to nominate someone young for the job in 2021.This clearly shows that he wants to be a puppeteer. Still many of his fans believe in his famous dialogue in his blockbuster movie Muththu. “Nobody knows when I will come, how I will come, but I will be there when the time come. “

The pace of the political momentum and regrouping of the political parties will pick up in the next few weeks. As of now, it will be a huge challenge for Rajni to fight the cadre- based Dravidian parties. He might have an alliance with the BJP with his right wing sympathies.

The upcoming polls will show whether the arithmetic or the chemistry of the players wins. The Sasikala and Rajni factors certainly will play out. (IPA Service)