The Nepal Press has not reported anything about the other mission of Wei, namely, to have a close look at the deep rift in the Nepal Communist Party, one faction being led by Oli and the other faction by Pushpa Kamal Dahal, better known as Prachanda. The Chinese ambassador to Nepal, Hou Yanqi, has openly intervened in the intra-party quarrel between the two factions to broker peace between them, though with little success. The simple fact is that Oli and Prachanda do not see eye to eye with each other.

Nepal’s relations with China are a major cause for the rift in the Nepal Communist Party. Prachanda does not like the pro-China tilt of Oli and his anti-India stance. If eventually the Prachanda group comes to power, Sino-Nepal relations may have to be reset. Incidentally, Wei’s visit is the highest level one from China after President Xi Jinping’s Nepal visit in October last year. Just before Wei’s visit, India’s Foreign Secretary, H. V. Shringla, and Indian army chief Gen. M. M. Naravane had been to Kathmandu.

Indo-Nepal relations took a hit in May this year when Nepal issued a new map of the country, showing three Indian territories as parts of Nepal. They are Lipulekh, Kalapani and Limpiyadhura. Later, the Nepal Parliament passed a Constitution Amendment Bill confirming the new map. Strong Indian protests failed to evoke any response from Kathmandu. Now Nepal seems eager to improve its relations with India without, however, removing the main irritant in the relations between the two countries, that is, the “cartographic aggression” on India.

China’s economic grip on Nepal is very strong and increasing. Beijing has put in billions of dollars of investments under the Belt-and-Road initiative. It includes the construction of a Trans-Himalayan Multi-Dimensional connectivity network which gives Nepal economic benefits while giving China a strategic advantage vis-à-vis India.

Indo-Nepal relations have to be viewed against the larger perspective of Sino-Nepal relations. China is pursuing a policy of winning over India’s neighbouring countries and turning them against India. In Nepal, they have a friend in K. P. Sharma Oli whose over-eagerness to woo China has alienated the faction led by Prachanda, who is for equidistance between China and Nepal. He is against alienating India for currying favour with China.

China has left India far behind in investments in Nepal. During 2019-20, Nepal received FDI pledges from China amounting to $220 million against pledges of $116 million in 2018-19. India’s total investment in Nepal was Rs. 3.24 billion in 2019-20. China is flexing both its financial and military muscles. In dealing with China, India will have to take into account Beijing’s economic power, too.

India should try to deepen and widen both its economic and defence ties with Nepal. Indian army chief, General Naravane’s visit to Nepal in early November was a welcome step by India to break the ice after the map controversy. The Nepali Press reported at the time that Nepal wanted “to read the mind of India” after the boundary dispute and cautioned the Government against leaving the resolution of the dispute entirely to the (Nepali) army.

New Delhi has to remove the bitterness of the Nepali people against India created by the economic blockade of the country in 2015. It was a faux pas on India’s part. It allowed China to come much closer to Nepal and take full advantage of the anti-India sentiments of the Nepali people. India has now to walk the extra mile to repair the damage done and win back the friendship of Nepal.

In the context of the confrontation between India and China not only in eastern Ladakh but all along the 4,056 km Sino-Indian boundary from Uttarakhand to Arunachal, India cannot afford to antagonize Nepal. The past has to be buried and a new chapter in Indo-Nepal relations opened.

Meanwhile, a disturbing news has come from Beijing. China is going to build a major hydel project on the Brahmaputra in Tibet (where it is called Yarlung Tsangpo). A proposal for this has been put forward in the 14th Five Year Plan. It will be implemented from the next year. The project which will generate 500 MW of power will be built in the middle reaches of the river in the Gyaca County of the Lhoka Prefecture of Tibet at a cost of $1.18 billion, according to “Tibet Online” of the People’s Daily.

This will mean diversion of enormous quantities of water, affecting Arunachal and Assam in India and Bangladesh further downstream. Though China has assured that the interests of downstream countries will be kept in view but Chinese assurances are just that – assurances only. India, it seems, will have trouble from China not just in the battlefront.

As far as Ladakh is concerned, one thing is certain. If, even after winter, India fails to wrest back the chunks of territory occupied by China since May this year, these will be permanently under Chinese occupation. (IPA Service)