The pandemic has just escalated our suffering this year. We have actually been suffering for years. India’s GDP in 2016 was 8.26 per cent. It has been falling since every year. At the time of the beginning of the present financial year, it was reduced to only 5.02 per cent. The economy was infested by lack of demand, and from March 24 onward the lockdown has put brake on the supply. The total crisis started melting down slowly only after the unlocking started from June 1. India is yet to be fully unlocked. The atmanirbhar package of 20.97 lakh crore rupees announced by Modi government was too small to alleviate the crisis. Assessment by international institutions found 800 million people in the country struggling for their survival on account of loss of their livelihood.

Living standard is one of the three key factors for calculating HDI, of which livelihood is most important element. We cannot conceive of any human development without economic sustainability of the people. We need income to survive. Unfortunately, we do not have minimum income guarantee scheme in our country, though such a scheme was hinted at an Economic Survey 2017-18, at a time when incomes of the common people were dwindling fast. Millions of enterprises were shut, and million others were struggling for their survival. The historic job loss has pushed unemployment to 45 years high.

However, nothing was done. India’s gross national income per capita fell to $6,681 in 2019 from $6,829 in 2018 on purchasing power parity (PPP) basis, as per the latest Human Development Report of UNDP. The World Bank has classified India as a lower middle-income country and the corresponding line would be PPP $3.2 (2011 prices) which translates into roughly a consumption level of Rs75 per person per day. Even at the rate of PPP$1.9 income, there were 21.92 per cent people under extreme poverty line. The poverty has been rising again even before the pandemic which has further pushed millions of others into extreme poverty this year, according to a World Bank estimate.

Due to rising poverty, health of our people has been deteriorating, which is the second most important factor in the Human Development Index. The recent National Family Health Survey (NFHS) -5 results for 22 states and Union Territories has revealed that health of the people of our country has been in very bad shape. There are rampant malnutrition among children and the rate of their wasting and stunting has been unacceptably high. The reference year was 2019, ie just before the pandemic started. COVID-19 overwhelmed our hospital infrastructure and acute shortage of doctors, nurses, and other hospital personnel and health workers accentuated the situation.

Number of patients exceeded 10.2 million and 148,000 lives were lost. Unavailability of hospital facilities including access to doctors has also caused additional deaths and sufferings, perhaps in millions, the actual figure of which we would know in future survey results. Allusion to this suffering to god will only be a sort of alibi, especially when we know that our government spends only a little in health sector. In 2018-19, India’s spending on health sector was only 1.5% of GDP, that is considered “low” even by NitiAayog with an assertion that it must be “corrected”.

The key factor of human development is education without which no one can hope for any progress. Even before the pandemic struck us, Indian students were suffering neglect and apathy of the government, especially from the poor background. Higher education have been systematically made costlier every year by our government at the centre making them inaccessible for poor students. Right to education is our children’s fundamental right, however, there is a dismal policy coverage. The National Sample Survey Organisation’s 2017-18 household survey put the number of out-of-school children in India (6-17 years) at 3.22 crore.

Educational institutions were shut down in March. Online education did not succeed due to various reasons including unavailability of internet and electricity connection, mobiles or computers to our students. Educational institutions are yet to open. Extreme economic hardships of the families have dampened the prospect of education for millions of students who are not likely to return to schools again. It has been estimated that the number of out of schools children are going to be doubled. Since 70 per cent of the families are under great economic duress, education is likely to be the first casualty.

No doubt, there are great human sufferings hidden under the dark shadow of 2020, which would spill over to 2021 and beyond. Redesigning our priority is the need of the hour which must include sustainable income generation at the household level, increasing investment on health, and education for all. We cannot afford further inequality in material development on the one hand and to ignore human development of the country on the other. Modi’s desire to have his wish carried on in the form of so called economic reforms breeding inequality would prove to be catastrophic, even for the rich whose riches are increasing day by day while the poor millions suffer. As our nation enters the New Year 2021 at the peak of one of the biggest movements of the farmers of the country against the government policies, the question remains whether this bitter struggle of the farmers against the pro-industry policies of the Modi government will pay any solid dividend in the coming year resulting in any change in the direction of the BJP government’s policies. (IPA Service)