While TMC founder and Railway Minister Ms. Mamata Banerjee has been aggressively campaigning to end the Left rule, the DMK in Tamil Nadu is going all out to come back to power with an absolute majority of its own , without giving up its alliance with the Congress. But the DMK is showing greater restiveness than before with Centre's policies and has already, along with TMC, resisted disinvestment in public undertakings and subsidy reform such as in the case of nutrient-based subsidy for fertilisers. It is making louder noises for state's autonomy and disagrees with Centre on a number of issues including the new educational policies.

Mr. Karunanidhi had already come out against the Goods and Services Tax and the new fertiliser subsidy scheme. Tamil Nadu has been in the forefront demanding a 50 per cent share of centre's tax revenues for the states and in its memorandum to the Centre-States Commission urged more fiscal and legislative powers for states as well as making education a state subject. The Chief Minister is also against judicial review of caste-based reservation policy.

The DMK Executive and General Council took stock of the political situation at a meeting in Chennai on February 20. In his address Mr. Karunanidhi referred in particular to the problems before the state like the long pending inter-state river disputes (Cauvery) and the Sethusamudram project which had been taken to the Supreme Court and said the party must get stronger for taking up these issues till they were resolved to their satisfaction. The DMK Council decided against nominating any member to the panel being constituted at the direction of the Supreme Court, to go into the TN-Kerala dispute over the storage level of the Mullaperiyar Dam.

Heading a minority Government since May 2006, the wily Chief Minister has not only consolidated the party's strength, and that of his family to wield power, but also hopes to stage a decisive come-back in 2011 in a way that Congress remains an ally but not as a life-support system as at present. He effectively sidelined the Congress with 35 seats providing the majority for the DMK Government which does not believe in power-sharing.

But Mr. Karunanidhi could easily dictate his terms for support to UPA at the Centre and get what he wanted in terms of DMK representation in the Union Council of Ministers as well as in advancing his state agenda. It is a reflection of UPA's utter dependence on allies among whom DMK proved the most demanding in its first term (2004-09) as well as in its second term since May 2009 with added pressures from its two key allies, Ms. Mamata Banerjee's TMC and DMK.

A year ahead of elections, politics in Tamil Nadu has gained new momentum with surprising moves by 85-year old DMK Supremo M Karunanidhi who first made his second son, M K Stalin, Minister for Local Administration, Deputy Chief Minister in mid-2009 entrusting him with key portfolios handled by him as Chief Minister. By the end of the year, Mr. Karunanidhi announced he would step down and work for the welfare of the poor after the Tamil World Conference being held in Coimbatore in June 2010.

This sent shock waves for his partymen who hoped that their great leader would not retire from active politics. That the announcement had a dramatic impact on the political situation was evident with AIADMK leader Ms. Jayalalithaa staging a bounce-back from seclusion, after successive electoral setbacks, though she dismissed Mr. Karunanidhi's statement saying the DMK leader was known for “flip-flops“. She was not far wrong as within days, speaking at a function to honour him as “Tamil Malaimagaan” (Patriarch), Mr. Karunanidhi took the line that retirement was “my personal issue to decide when, where and in what circumstances to retire”.

Nevertheless, even the Congress which on record is for its alliance with DMK to remain firm, is looking at having more political space in Tamil Nadu in the event of Mr Karunanidhi stepping down. The Congress General Secretary Mr. Rahul Gandhi had on a three-day visit late last year galvanised youth with a membership drive and said he would like to see Congress in power in Tamil Nadu “one day”. That was before Mr. Karunanidhi hinted at his retirement but State Congressmen assume in the light of Mr. Gandhi's visit and emerging developments, the party would make significant gains in voting share in 2011.There is no expectation for any early return to “Kamaraj Rule”, i.e. the Congress Government which lost power in 1967.

The DMK Chief himself has been weighing the electoral prospects for 2011 in terms of his own party making a sweep, as it did in the series of byelections over the last two years, and his Government has been stepping up its freebies in various ways, expediting welfare programmes including distribution of wasteland to over 40,000 scheduled castes and promising construction of houses for over two million hut-dwellers, besides a 30 per cent hike in pay of government employees. All this triggered some expectation that Mr. Karunanidhi may opt for a snap poll when the going is good so as to give his party the coveted majority.

Meanwhile, the AIADMK camp has been launching a series of demonstrations in the state over the “anti-farmer” stance of the state government in regard to sugarcane price and related issues and Ms. Jayalalithaa is addressing huge meetings to highlight the “failures” of the DMK Government. The AIADMK camp has also been electrified by the exchange of pleasantries between their “Amma” and Ms. Sonia Gandhi when Ms. Jayalalithaa had been invited to attend the diamond jubilee celebrations of the Election Commission on January 25.. The AIADMK leader is predicting changes in the political scenario before the polls. She has said her party is open for an alliance with the Congress. “Let us see how things work out. If the people of Tamil Nadu are destined to get a good government, they will”. The DMK leader's reaction was that Ms. Jayalalithaa was in a dreamland. The DMK-Congress alliance would go to the polls and emerge stronger, he said.

The shift in Mr. Karunanidhi's earlier posture of retiring in June is attributed in political circles to the rivalry between the brothers, 54-year old Mr. Stalin, whom Mr. Karunanidhi wants to anoint as his successor, and 59-year old Mr. M K Azhagiri, Union Minister for Fertilisers. For years, the elder son had chosen Madurai as his headquarters as the party's southern zone head and has an unassailable hold over the southern districts. Apparently, he does not believe that his father would retire soon while his supporters have greater expectations on Mr. Azhagiri's future. He has in no way indicated his mind on the succession, should Mr. Karunanidhi finally retire. (IPA Service)