In a vibrant parliamentary democracy like India, the political mood changes very fast and that is what the Prime Minister Narendra Modi is experiencing now in his second consecutive tenure as the Prime Minister. The survey done by the opinion agency C-Voter showed that the acceptability of the Prime Minister nosedived from earlier 67 per cent to 35 per cent in May this year in the background of the Government’s gross failure in controlling the pandemic, especially after the second wave and the acute financial distress currently faced by the people. More adverse developments have taken place in the last two months and it is probable that the acceptability of the PM has gone down below 30 per cent by now.

Foranti-BJP opposition, the political turf for challenging Narendra Modi has never been so much favourable as it is now. It is a good coincidence that the Trinamool Congress President and West Bengal Chief Minister Mamata Banerjee through her address on Jul21 urged the opposition parties to take advantage of this present vulnerability of the Prime Minister Narendra Modi and his party by uniting to fight the saffrons in the states in the assembly polls in 2022 and 2023 and finally combating the BJP in the Lok Sabha elections in 2024.Mamata is visiting Delhi next week and she called for a meeting of the opposition parties to discuss the unity strategy.

Earlier also, the Trinamool vice president Yashwant Sinha organised a meeting of the opposition parties at the NCP supremo Sharad Pawar’s residence but that was a preliminary type and was a sort of curtain raiser for a bigger issue based meeting which will work out the road map for opposition parties to face BJP unitedly both in struggles and in polls. The next meeting should be business like and it should have active participation of the Congress which is the largest opposition party against the BJP and which will be facing directly BJP in most of the states which will go for elections in 2022 and 2023.

Already the ace poll strategist Prashant Kishor had detailed meeting with the three Gandhis of the Congress and he must have discussed how the Congress has to play the leading role in ensuring broader unity of the opposition parties and why only a perfect coordination between the Congress and the regional parties can ensure an effective unity to fight the BJP in both the states and in the Lok Sabha elections in the coming period. As Mamata mentioned in her address that day, time was running out and the action programme for the states should start right now. She said the game would be on in states and finally at the centre in 2024.The West Bengal CM talked from a position of strength and she now exercises a moral power to advise the opposition parties as she decisively trounced the Modi-Shah do in the assembly elections in Bengal early this year and this she could do despite massive mobilisation of resources and muscle power by the central leadership of BJP in the Bengal poll.

The next week’s opposition meet must focus on the strategy to fight the state elections as only by defeating the BJP in the states, it will be possible for the opposition to take on Narendra Modi and the BJP in the Lok Sabha elections in 2024. Even among the states, the elections in Uttar Pradesh which has 403 assembly seats and which sends 80 members to Lok Sabha, will be most important as the results in Uttar Pradesh will have big impact on the national political situation as a whole. Prime Minister knows it and accordingly, he has taken charge of the UP electoral plan of the BJP defacto.The opposition; in the best possible way has to meet this BJP challenge in UP elections, ensuring maximum possible unity of the anti-BJP voters, even if full unity does not materialize.

In 2022, the assembly elections will be held in Uttar Pradesh, Uttarakhand, Punjab, Manipur, and Goa in February/Marchand in Himachal and Gujaratby the end of 2022. Excepting Uttar Pradesh, in all six states, Congress is the main party and it has the major responsibility to defeat the BJP. Of these seven states going for elections in 2022, Punjab is ruled by the Congress and all indications suggest that the Congress will be able to retain the state comfortably taking into account the latest results of panchayat and local bodies elections. Further in Punjab, with the Akalis severing their relations with the BJP, the NDA has become weaker.

In 2023, nine states will go to elections – Rajasthan, Chhattisgarh, Madhya Pradesh, Tripura, Telangana, Nagaland, Mizoram, Meghalaya and Karnataka. Out of these, it is of prime importance for the Congress to winback Madhya Pradesh and Karnataka and bid for win in north eastern states where it will have to form understanding with the anti-BJP regional parties. In Tripura, the Left Front led CPI(M) will also be fighting and the LF will try to get back the state from BJP. The Congress has to work out its strategy based on the ground reality in Tripura before the 2023 polls. In Karnataka, JD(S) led by Deve Gowda can be a partner in removing BJP from power in the elections. The Congress leadership has to ensure that proper candidates are given tickets who are loyal to the party and will not be lured by the BJP as happened after the last assembly elections in Karnataka and Madhya Pradesh.

In 2024, six states will go for assembly elections- Andhra Pradesh, Haryana, Jharkhand, Maharashtra, Odisha and. Arunachal. Most of these assembly elections might be held along with the Lok Sabha elections in April/ May 2024. So the major impact of the assembly elections outcome on 2024 Lok Sabha elections will be from the polls held in 2022 and 2023.

Mamata and Prashant Kishor share a common perception about the flexibleapproach on the opposition unity to fight the BJP. There can not be any uniform formula on a national plane for the state assembly elections as also Lok Sabha polls. The strategy will vary from state to state depending on the ground reality as also the latest positioning of the forces aligned against the BJP.

First and foremost is the Congress. Prashant Kishor as an adviser to the Congress , is expected to focus on Uttar Pradesh in a big way since Samajwadi Party is the major anti-BJP party in UP and its president Akhilesh Yadav has galvanised the party cadres for the elections. BSP is expected to fight alone while the Congress under direction of Priyanka Gandhi is making efforts to organize cadres in support of its own programmes against the Yogi government.PK has to make special efforts to see how the anti-BJP votes split can be averted. The best course is to have an understanding of the SP and the Congress for the assembly polls but if that is not possible, there should be ways to see that the candidate best placed against the BJP wins. UP is very crucial in the overall national strategy of the opposition. If needed, Mamata can also make some personal efforts to see that the anti-BJP votes are not split.

As regards the other states in the first phase in 2022, the Congress has to tighten its organisation in all the states like Punjab, Goa, Manipur and Uttarakhand. In Goa and Manipur, the Congress missed power in the last elections just due to its organisational callousness and money power of the BJP. PK is expected tofill the gaps which the Congress needs for performing better. In Uttarakhand also, the Congress is the main rival of the BJP and with the fusion of some amount of dynamism, it is not difficult to defeat BJP.The states have Congress support base, the only thing is that they have to be energised at the optimum level. That confidence has to be generated that this time, BJP can be defeated. PK has to act to impart that killer instinct which is very much needed to defeat the BJP.

In fact, the opposition should work for two stage unity to combat the BJP offensive in the coming elections. First the unity of non-Congress opposition parties who are hard core anti-BJP. These parties are Congress, Trinamool, NCP, DMK, Shiv Sena, some smaller regional parties including National Conference and also the Left parties the CPI and the CPI(M). Then the unity of the chief ministers who will fight for the state powers and resist attacks against federalism. This CM group may include the chief ministers of Telangana, Andhra Pradesh and Odisha also. Delhi Chief Minister is anti-BJP but he has problems with the Congress. Mamata and PK have to take care of this and bring AAP in the combined opposition. Kerala Chief Minister Pinarayi Vijayan, Maharashtra CM Uddhav Thackeray and Tamil Nadu CM M K Stalin are already in the anti-BJP camp.

Telangana CM is already feeling the heat of communal polarisation in his state from BJP. He might be tempted to join politically against BJP before 2024 LokSabha poll. Mamata Banerjee is advantageously placed in persuading these three CMs to join the joint fight against attacks by BJP government on the powers of the non-BJP state governments. A representative of TRS was present at Constitution Club on July 21 along with other opposition leaders to listen to Mamata. AAP has a good equation with Mamata and PK. AAP leader Sanjay Singh attended also Constitution Club on July 21.

All these CMs including Naveen Patnaik of Odisha are fighting both the Congress and the BJP in their respective states and they will be interested in coming closer to anti-BJP opposition if the alternative gets further strengthened in the coming days.. No such fence sitting CM will like to take any risk unless the non-BJP alternative is really strong and has potential to unseat BJP in the next Lok Sabha polls. West Bengal Chief Minister Mamata Banerjee, with her massive success in crushing BJP in her state, is more acceptable to the fence sitting CMs like Naveen Patnaik, K Chandrasekhar Rao and Jaganmohan Reddy and certainly to Arvind Kejriwal. They will fight the BJP on their own and can be persuaded to join the non-BJP alternative after 2024 poll if the situation demands that.

The road map to build a solid opposition front against the BJP in 2024 Lok Sabha elections will not be smooth, there will be many hiccups but these will have to be dealt with a statesman like manner with clear vision. National goal of ousting Modi government will have to be given priority over respective party interests. The opposition’s time has come The people are looking for alternative to Narendra Modi for the first time after 2014.The opposition parties led by Rahul Gandhi, Mamata Banerjee and Sharad Pawar have to seize this opportunity to decisively fight the BJP and form a non-BJP government after 2024 Lok Sabha elections. (IPA Service)