Sangh strategy to win the 2024 Lok Sabha election revolves around victory of the BJP in the 2022 Uttar Pradesh assembly election. A poor performance in UP would jeopardise the grand expansion design of the Sangh. RSS chief Mohan Bhagwat has already rolled out his strategy for UP by saying that DNA of Hindu Muslim are the same.

While Sangh intends to entice the Muslims and garner some percentage of their votes, it is also not confident of Hindus enblock for it. The vote bank of upper caste, OBC and Dalits, which the BJP had managed to create in 2017, has already been showing the signs of disintegration. The reign of terror and repression let lose by the upper caste rajputs, the community to which Yogi belongs, has rocked the support base of the BJP. In fact the RSS is finding it tough to assuage the feelings of other castes and make them rally behind Yogi.

With the pervasive anger and hatred towards Yogi dominating the political scenario, Sangh is apprehensive that SKM focusing on UP would virtually repeat the Bengal scenario. Rakesh Tikait who is the popular face of the farmers’ movement, would come to represent the peoples’ aspiration and symbolise the alternative mode of politics. Even SP chief Akhilesh Yadav would find hard to have his way. RSS is in a state of stupor and is unable to initiate any step to salvage the situation. It is also not certain that whether its suggestions would go down well with the warring factions of the BJP led by Narendra Modi and Yogi. Meanwhile even the RSS cadres and supporters belonging to backwards castes have accused the c entral leaders of Sangh of being biased against them. They allege that if the Sangh leadership has been alive to the developments, the situation would not have deteriorated to this extent.

Sealing Lucknow would not be a one day movement. The SKM leaders plan to sustain it till the assembly elections. Already the Bharatiya Kisan Union leader Rakesh Tikait had announced "Lucknow will become Delhi". The place of the movement would shift from Delhi border to Lucknow. The farmers’ leaders has already made it known that through their ‘Mission UP and Uttarakhand', they will take their agitation to all corners of the election-bound states. They are scheduled to go to polls in February-March 2022.

However, this intensification of the protest will take place after a farmer meeting or 'Kisan Mahapanchayat' scheduled on September 5 in western Uttar Pradesh's Muzaffarnagar. The event will be the biggest ever of its kind, the farmer leaders claimed. Farmer leaders have been forced to harden their attitude on getting the feedback that the BJP leadership was once again conspiring to ignite communal clashes in western UP, which is the strong support belt of the SKM.

Some leaders recall how the BJP had engineered riots in the western UP in 2013 which ultimately helped it to romp home with massive majority. The farmer leaders are determined not to allow the B JP to disrupt the social and caste tranquillity. Raising of dissenting voice by some ground level RSS cadres has come as a solace to the farmer leaders, as these RSS foot workers had played a major role in fomenting violent clashes in which large number of people were killed and thousands had been evicted from their villages.

"We are launching Mission UP and Uttarakhand. It will make the movement more focused and intensive. There will be more big rallies and a Mahapanchayat and we will ensure that the protest against the BJP and the policies of the BJP government resonate at all steps, starting right from the village level," Yogendra Yadav said.

The BJP has been trying to create the impression that only a section of jats were with the movement. But it is far from truth. Even the Yadavs who have been traditionally with the Samajwadi Party of Mulayam Singh, have shown their inclination for joining hands with the jats in this battle. The farmers’ movement enjoys wide support in central and eastern India, but it is a fact that their response is lukewarm. It is not as warm as it ought to have been. In fact through its mission UP and Uttarakhand, the SKM intends to motivate the Yadav farmers of the state and actively involve them in the struggle.

By inducting some dalit and backward leaders in his cabinet during the recent reshuffle, Narendra Modi tried to reach out to the people of these castes and identify himself with their aspirations, but the development and the prevailing mood amongst the members of these castes do not suggest that he has succeeded in his mission. People do not find anything new or attractive in this archaic exercise.

Meanwhile the BJP has taken out Tiranga Yatra in Haryana. It will continue for two weeks till August 15. During the 'yatra', senior BJP leaders would take part and pay homage to freedom fighters and unsung heroes of India's freedom movement. It also aims to inculcate a spirit of patriotism among the younger generation. The primary aim has been to link the Hindu nationalism with the freedom struggle.

It is a well known fact that during the freedom struggle the RSS had identified itself with the interest of the Birtishers. Now an attempt is being made to present RSS as the champion and key participant in the freedom struggle. This is being done to demonstrate it as the ardent votary of nationalism. Sacrifices made by the freedom fighters will be highlighted and tributes will be paid to them.

The SKM nevertheless holds "The proposed 'Tiranga Yatra' of the BJP's Haryana unit is mainly to instigate farmers and defame them.” It urged farmers to see through this devious plan of BJP, and to not let this dirty tactic, under the guise of the national flag, succeed".

Yogendra Yadav, Swaraj India president and key SKM leader called the Yatra a ploy. "Keeping this ploy in view, SKM has decided that we will not oppose the Tiranga Yatra. However, other programmes of boycott of BJP-JJP will continue as before. The BJP, which has been completely rejected by the people, won't be able to defame farmers' agitation by taking support of this 'Tiranga Yatra'," he said.

The RSS-BJP combine has plan to launch a similar Yatra in UP also. They chose Haryana to launch the yatra in Haryana to test the mood of the farmers. A success would have made them to go ahead. But the decision of the SKM not to oppose the yatra has blunted its political relevance and implication. The RSS-BJP will have to evolve some alternate mechanism.

Yatra is also a machination to divert the attention of the farmers and dynamics as well as dimension of the movement. Till today the focus of the movement has been to draw the attention of the people of the country to the government’s indifference towards the agitating farmers and embarrass it by asserting that the government is suppressing the farmers and doesn’t allow a debate on the farmers’ ongoing protest in Parliament. These laws were framed to help two-three industrialists and these are not going to help the farmers.

The fact is the movement has entered into a new phase. Earlier the farmers protesting at three venues outside Delhi – at the Singhu, Tikri and Ghazipur borders – have been desperately trying to catch the government’s attention. Now they are ready for gearing for intervention in the political institution and structure. They plan to campaign against the BJP in the upcoming state elections in Uttar Pradesh, Punjab and Uttarakhand next year to teach it a lesson. The situation is extremely volatile in Punjab, Haryana and western Uttar Pradesh where the farmers have prevented BJP leaders from holding any programmes.

Rakesh Tikait has already announced that Modi’s claim that there is nothing anti-farmer in the three farm laws is a big lie. He said; “One of the three laws states that the farmers will have to buy fertiliser, seeds, insecticides, equipment, etc, from the corporates under contract farming. It also states that the farmers have to enter an agreement with the banks to take loans to buy these things. The fact remains that the farmers take loan after mortgaging their properties”.

He is confident; “we will dislodge them in Uttar Pradesh and Uttarakhand because the government is not ready to repeal the black laws. Our first mahapanchayat of Mission Uttar Pradesh-Uttarakhand would be held in Muzaffarnagar on September 5. We are soon going to sit on dharna at all the entry points to Lucknow. The government thinks we are getting tired and would suspend our agitation at Delhi’s borders but we are expanding our protest base”.

While the Modi government was maintaining the façade of holding talks with the farmers, the Haryana Chief Minister Manohar Lal Khattar has to say "Those spearheading the agitation are in reality not farmers. Real farmers have no objection with the farm laws, they are happy. Their Punjab team is doing so because polls are approaching there. But there are no polls due in our state. Here the agenda is to defame the government using political angle. And the Congress is also supporting them in this". (IPA Service)