In fact this Pegasus spyware issue has got all the explosive potential of emerging as Bofors like on the eve of the 1989 Lok Sabha elections which led to the defeat of the Congress led by Rajiv Gandhi and the emergence ofV P Singh as the leader of the opposition who took over as the Prime Minister after getting support from both BJP and the Left from outside. The Pegasus issue, the three farm laws and the failure of the centre to protect the poor and unorganised hit most by pandemic are more people’s related issues than Bofors which can form the basis of the joint movement of the opposition and this issue based unity can be channelized into electoral arena during both state assembly elections in 2022 and 2023 and thereafter finally in 2024 Lok Sabha elections.

Congress President Sonia Gandhi has convened a meeting of the opposition parties again on August 20 and she has invited the leaders of the opposition parties including NCP leader Sharad Pawar, Trinamool supremo and West Bengal CM Mamata Banerjee, Shiv Sena CM Uddhav Thackeray, Tamil Nadu CM M K Stalin to attend the same. Earlier last week, Congress MP Kapil Sibal organised a dinner meeting of the opposition leaders which was highly successful since the leaders of the BJD, TDP and YSRC also participated and expressed their anger against the central rule. These leaders generally avoid the central leadership of the Congress but Sibal was able to get them associated with his meeting which had a good presence of G-23 leaders.

The ground is fertile but there are a few disconcerting signs which may adversely affect the opposition unity, if not tackled now. In fact at the August 20 meeting itself, senior leaders like Sharad Pawar and M K Stalin can help in sorting out the hot and cold policy of Trinamool towards Rahul Gandhi which is very essential for building the opposition unity and taking it forward. Trinamool MPs did not attend the demonstration of the opposition MPs in Parliament premises led by Rahul Gandhi on August 12 against the abrupt ending of the sessions. Earlier also, on one or two times, Trinamool MPs skipped Rahul organized meetings. The impression is gaining ground that Trinamool wants to project Mamata as the potential candidate for Prime Minister for 2024 Lok Sabha elections and that is why they are devaluing Rahul’s prominence.

There is nothing wrong in any ambition of Trinamool in projecting Mamata as PM candidate. But Mamata herself said that this is not the time to talk about leadership issue, this can come up later based on the circumstances after the Lok Sabha polls. This is the correct position for the opposition. If Mamata really feels so, she must not allow such comments by her party MPs and ensure that there is full cooperation with Rahul Gandhi and both will be partners in the opposition battle against the BJP government both in and outside Parliament till 2024 Lok Sabha elections.

West Bengal Chief Minister Mamata Banerjee’s talks in Delhi during her five day visit beginning July 26, have helped in a big way in facilitating the process of an understanding in principle that the Congress has to be a major partner in the proposed front of the anti-BJP opposition parties in order to ensure the defeat of the BJP led by the Prime Minister Narendra Modi in the Lok Sabha elections in 2024. That partnership has to be strengthened and that cannot be done by continuously giving pinpricks to Rahul Gandhi by Trinamool MPs.

Mamata has a definite political strategy for both the coming assembly polls as also the Lok Sabha elections. According to this, the main anti-BJP party in the state will have decisive power in deciding on the electoral policy in consultations with the other parties which are interested in being a part of the anti-BJP front. That way, excepting Uttar Pradesh, the Congress will be the main anti-BJP party in most of the states that are going for assembly polls in 2022. Prashant Kishor, the poll strategist has already discussed with Sonia Gandhi in the presence of Rahul and Priyanka, the possible Congress strategy for the state elections and how it can coincide with the composite opposition gameplan.

At the initiative of Mamata, PK has already prepared a presentation on how maximum electoral understanding can be made possible between the Congress and the regional parties both for the assembly polls and finally in the Lok Sabha polls. The basic principle is that in states, the anti- BJP opposition parties may fight against each other taking into account the local political compulsions, but for Lok Sabha elections, maximum efforts will have to be given for total understanding of opposition parties against BJP taking into account an objective assessment of the strength of the contending opposition parties. Even if total understanding is not possible in some states, maximum care has to be taken to see that the division of anti BJP votes is kept minimum. This is a tough task but not impossible.

Right now, the task of the opposition is to be battle ready for the assembly elections in five states by early 2022 — Uttar Pradesh, Punjab, Goa, Uttarakhand and Manipur. Only six months are left for these polls. Elections to other two states Gujarat and Himachal will be taking place by the end of 2022. So, as of now, preparations by the opposition for the coming five states, especially Uttar Pradesh, is of crucial importance.

The real challenge of the Congress is to get back to power in four states Punjab, Uttarakhand, Goa and Manipur. Rahul Gandhi has to get back power in UK, Goa and Manipur to bring back the mojo for the Congress. At KapilSibal meeting, this was the refrain can Congress take on BJP where it is the main challenger? That is the crux of the issue. By asserting the party’s electoral power, Rahul Gandhi can only vindicate his position as a leader of the opposition. No party will care for him if the Congress fares badly in the coming assembly elections. The outcome of the coming assembly elections will decide whether Rahul has the capability to lead the opposition.

Mamata has proved her worth as a challenger to Modi Shah duo in Bengal election .with her massive victory. She is in a mood to challenge BJP in Tripura. Mamata is a big attraction to the regional parties in Assam. Mamata is acceptable to the chief ministers Naveen Patnaik, Jaganmohan Reddy and Chandrasekhar Rao. She can make use of these three regional chief ministers who are fence sitters in relation to BJP if the situation demands.

That way the ideal situation for opposition will be to ensure that Mamata and Rahul work in tandem in their objective of building unity of opposition parties to defeat BJP in the 2024 Lok Sabha elections. The road to centre in Delhi will go through states assembly polls. Mamata has nothing to show now, she has already proved herself, she can only help others as mentor. Rahul has to prove and he has to take it up as his foremost electoral battle in his political life. The success of the Congress in the state assembly elections can only catapult Rahul to the stature of a real leader of opposition. Is Rahul ready for that plunge showing his killer instinct? That is the billion dollar question. (IPA Service)