When one dives deep into the recently released UN’s IPCC report on climate change, the predictions made for the region is greatly troubling. With hotter weather and increased draughts due to global warming, which is likely to increase by 1.5 degree Centigrade in the next two decades, large area will be under heat wave conditions for a longer period, while longer monsoon seasons with heavy rains will bring devastating floods into several other areas.

Unprecedented heavy rainfall and the rising sea level will be particularly threatening to coastal states of Bangladesh, India, Pakistan, and Sri Lanka. In India, heavy rainfall and cloudbursts can occur also in the states of the Himalayan regions, which may include not only the entire north east, but also certain parts of Bihar, Uttarakhand, Himachal Pradesh, Ladakh, and Jammu & Kashmir. The states in the plains will be reeling under heat waves which may include Rajasthan, Madhay Pradesh, Uttar Pradesh, Delhi, Punjab, and Haryana. The coastal areas in India to suffer the most by heavy rain would be Maharashtra, especially the Mumbai city, Tamil Nadu, especially Chennai, Kerala, Karnataka, Andhara Pradesh, Orissa, West Bengal, and Gujarat.

It has been pointed out by the reports that South Asia region is also home to the lowest lying countries in the world which included the densely populated island nation of the Maldives, which could be submerged in the not-too-distant future. Several areas of Sri Lanka and Bangladesh are also facing the same threat. In India, Goa, Puducherry, and Andaman and Nicobar Islands are most vulnerable because of sea level rising and torrential rains. Countries which are not bordered by seas, but are land locked, such as Afghanistan, Bhutan, and Nepal will have to suffer the rising temperature and drought, apart from floods due to heavy rains and glacial melting.

According to an estimate of the WB, nearly half of the South Asia’s population have been affected by at least one climate related disaster in the last decade. South Asian countries rank at the very bottom of several recent global environmental sustainability rankings. The Global Climate Risk Index 2020 prepared by a German think tank Germanwatch had ranked India and Pakistan among the 20 most affected countries by climate change in the 21st century.

A recent McKinsey Global Institute report had found that the South Asian region is most likely to lose 13 per cent of its GDP by 2050 due to Climate Change. According to Government of India’s own estimate without a policy response, climate change would lead to farm income losses of 15% to 18% on average and 20 to 25% in unirrigated areas, a fact that was even mentioned in the Economic Survey 2018.

Union Ministry of Earth Sciences, Government of India, had concluded in a 2020 study that the country would become dryer and hotter in the coming decades with average temperature would be increasing by nearly 4 degrees Celsius by the end of the century. The study has also warned longer monsoon, warmer Indian Ocean, and rising sea level to nearly one foot.

A WB study of 2018 had projected that about 40 million people would most likely be displaced in South Asia by 2050. Without climate mitigation measures and climate-friendly public policies, 13 million people would have to be migrated from Bangladesh alone. We have reached to a point where even climate-friendly policies could not stop at least 20 million migrations in South Asia reason. Therefore, all the country in the reason should brace themselves for such eventualities. Large scale migrations within the countries may also deprived millions of their basic necessities, apart from social chaos, loss of lives, and social tensions. Thus, domestic and international migrations due to climate crisis require urgent attention of the governments in the region.

Despite such warnings, IPCC report still hopes that we still have time to avert such a devastating climate crisis. The report has lauded South Asian countries for several policy initiatives but has warned about insufficient funding to tackle the problem on the one hand and corruption and lack of enforcement and proper monitoring on the other.

South Asian countries are among the most vulnerable globally to the impacts of climate change, says a recent report of UNICEF, while emphasizing of providing climate change education in the reason. Extreme climate-related events - heatwaves, storms, floods, fires and droughts - affect more than half of the region's population every year and continue to burden South Asian countries’ economies. Climate change is real and its impacts are intensifying day by day. Rising global temperatures and changing weather patterns have put the futures of millions of children living in climate-vulnerable areas in South Asia at constant risk. Worse, before they can recover from one disaster, another one strikes, reversing any progress made. To end this cycle, South Asian communities need to build greater resilience. Climate education may help overcome the crisis. (IPA Service)