To understand the impact of infighting on the political fortunes of the parties in the state one on needs to look at the history of the state since its creation in 2000 and formation of Interim Uttarakhand Assembly. Nityanand Swami of the BJP had become chief minister of the state, but was replaced by Bhagat Singh Koshyari in 2001 due to infighting. INC was almost united at that time, and consequently, the ruling BJP lost in the election of 2002.

Congress came to power and Narayan Datt Tiwari became the chief minister of the state who ruled the state until the next election in 2007. Several issues cropped up under his rule and people lost the love for Congress. The BJP was in opposition but infighting continued. Leader of the opposition Bhagat Singh Koshyari was replaced by Matbar Singh Khandari in 2003. Infighting in the BJP kept under control since then, and consequently the party won the 2007 Vidhan Sabha election.

The BJP came to power and Bhuwan Chandra Khanduri came to power. However, in 2009 he had to be replaced by Ramesh Pokhriyal who in turn was replaced again by Bhuwan Chandra Khanduri in 2011, and all for infighting in the party. It is precisely for this reason the BJP lost the next Vidhan Sabha election held in 2012. Harak Singh Rawat of the Congress remained the leader of opposition during 2007-2012, and infighting in the party was more or less under check. Unity among the various factions of the Congress brought them in power in 2012.

However, after coming in power, infighting started in Congress. Vijay Bahuguna became the chief minister in 2012, but he had to be replaced by Harish Rawat in 2014. Infighting grew in Congress, and in March 2016, which led to such a political drama for nine days that centre led by the BJP imposed President’s rule in the state. Congress thus lost the state. Ajay Bhatt of the BJP remained the leader of the opposition in the 3rd Legislative Assembly of the state, and the party was more or less united.

This unity among various factions of the BJP brought them again in power after the Vidhan Sabha election of 2017. However, when they came in power, infighting started which had become too intense in 2021 to retain Trivendra Singh Rawat as the chief minister of the state. He was replaced by Tirath Singh Rawat, and then again by Pushkar Singh Dhami as chief minister. It indicates very high degree of infighting in the BJP. Given the record of the state, such infighting may prove too costly for the BJP, and could have lost their rule, had the various factions of the Congress united.

However, this is not the case with the Congress this time. Congress itself has remained faction ridden since 2017 when Indira Hridayesh had become the leader of opposition in the legislative assembly of the state, though the infighting remained mild. After her demise in June 2021, Pritam Singh became leader of opposition. It is record of the state that a united opposition always wrests power from the ruling party suffering from intense infighting.

This factor makes the Congress hopeful of returning to power in the state, but there are several other factors too. One of them is the partywise position in the outgoing Vidhan Sabha, in which BJP has 53 seats as against only 9 of Congress. There are also 2 independents, while 6 seats are vacant. In the election of 2017, BJP had won 57 seats while INC 11, and the difference seems to be very wide. However, when we look at the percentage of votes polled by the two parties, the difference may not look too wide. The BJP had polled 46.51 per cent of votes as against 33.49 per cent of the INC. BSP had also gained 6.98 per cent of votes.

Additionally, all the pre-poll surveys point to important movements of the vote shares that are declining for the BJP and the BSP in Uttarakhand, and increasing for Congress. The latest ABP-CVoter survey reveals that only 29 per cent voters are in favour of the present incumbent chief minister Pushkar Singh Dhami from the BJP, while 37 per cent are in favour of the Congress leader Harish Rawat. However, politics is not so simple as 2+2=4.

Despite the declines in vote shares of the BSP and the BJP of which chief beneficiary will be Congress, there will be very narrow gap between the vote shares of the Congress and BJP. As per the survey, BJP is set to lose 8 per cent of its vote share, which may bring BJP down to 34 seats. The respective gain from the BJP’s and BSP’s loss may enable the Congress to gain 33 seats. Thus, Chance of horse trading is most likely scenario the state is heading towards, since the magic number to form government is 36.

AAP is a new entrant in the state election and it may also get a large number of anti-BJP votes. As per the survey, the party is projected to get 12.9 per cent of votes, which may gladden the BJP and increase the worries of the Congress. AAP is projected to win 3 seats, and thus the party may play a crucial role in formation of the new government in case of hung assembly. It is clear that the opposition unity may stamp the BJP out from Uttarakhand.

The last, but not the least, factor is the money power. Candidates limit on expenses have been enhanced from Rs 28 to Rs 40 lakh just before the announcement of the election schedule. It would go in favour of the richer political party, perhaps in favour of the BJP, since they have enough money to spend on election and who are major beneficiary of electoral bonds scheme. Enhancing the limit only two days ago did not give sufficient time to the opposition to manage the required sum in time, which is an anti-democratic step, because it goes against the poorer candidates. (IPA Service)