The first survey, published late on Wednesday, carried out by pollsters Pitagorica for TV channels TVI and CNN Portugal, gave the current premier Antonio Costa's PS party a 39.6 per cent share of the vote, up from 37 per cent last month. Although it was one of the best recent results obtained by PS (Socialist Party), it leaves them short of a majority which under the proportional representation system equates to between 42 per cent and 45 per cent of the votes. The poll placed the main opposition party the Social Democrats (PSD) at 30 per cent down from 31.7 per cent in December 2021.

The second survey, by Intercampus for newspapers Jornal de Negocios and Correio da Manha, showed PS remained favourites to win but only grabbing 29 per cent of the vote, edging down from 29.4 per cent last month. It gave PSD 24.1 per cent, up from 22.2 per cent.. Intercampus survey put the number of undecided voters at 18 per cent.

It is recalled that in In October 2021, Costa's two former allies - the Communists and the Left Bloc - sided with the opposition to reject the minority government's budget bill, triggering the snap election. The Left Bloc and the Communist Party objected to the budget provisions saying that the Labour issues had not been taken into account. The two parties were supporting the Costa government from outside after the last national elections when no Party was able to get majority.

The Left Bloc and the Communists saw support at 6.4 per cent and 5 per cent respectively in the Pitagorica poll, and 7 per cent and 4.9 per cent in the Intercampus survey. And according to both polls, the Left Bloc remains the third largest Party followed the rising far right party Chega polling between 4.9 per cent and 5.7 per cent.

In October last year, Prime Minister Antonio Costa was defeated by 117 votes to 108, with five abstentions, after left-wing parties, including the Portuguese Communist Party (PCP), refused to back the Socialist Party’s budget. It was the first time since the restoration of democracy in 1974 that a budget proposal had been rejected in Portugal. Costa said he would not resign in the wake of the vote, but admitted that it was a “personal defeat.” “I did all I could to make this budget work without adding anything to it that would be to the country’s detriment,” he said.

The Communist Party has strong base in Portugal among the trade unions and the Party was under pressure from its members for taking position on the budget since it lacked adequate facilities for the workers. So the Communists said that the 2022 budget proposal did not contain enough for Portugal’s working class, with a lack of investment in jobs, housing, and public services in Parliament while voting against the budget.

The party’s suggestion of raising the monthly national minimum wage to €800 ($935) in 2022 and €850 ($993) in 2023 was ignored, leaving many thousands of workers facing poverty. “There is no future for a country based on low wages,” PCP parliamentarian and party leader Jeronimo de Sousa said during the debate. The party said it had no choice but to reject the budget proposal after its suggestions were rebuffed. “We will continue on the right side of the fight, alongside the workers and the people, because it is with them and with the defense of their rights and interests our first and main commitment,” MP Joao Oliveira said.

The political crisis in the Costa government took place just when the government was poised to boost the economy after the COVID-19 pandemic by deploying 45 billion euros ($52 billion) in aid from the European Union. Prime Minister Antonio Costa has won appreciation from the EU member nations for his success in containing covid as also stepping up the economic growth during his rule in the last six years. Recent opinion polls indicate that his Party is favourably placed to be the leading party in the next elections but still be short of majority.

In fact, the political analysts still feel that there is some scope for talks between the Socialist Party and the Left bloc to avoid the poll through some adjustment of programmes but that should convince the President who is committed to hold the poll if the budget got defeated. Socialist Party will be facing the main challenge from the centre-right Socialist Democratic Party but this party is in bad shape currently due to rivalries among the senior leaders. That gives scope to the PM Costa who has good acceptability among the Portuguese voters, to fare better in the 2022 poll.

Costa belongs to Indian origin. His father was a leading figure of the Portuguese Communist Party and he was jailed during the Salazar rule. Present PM was brought up in that left environment but he became an activist of the Socialist Party, though keeping good relations with the PCP. His communist father was also a well known author. They have an ancestral house in Goa. (IPA Service)