Kalaignar as he is affectionately called, will turn 86 on June 3 and had announced recently that he will retire. The family quarrel reaching a climax now, it is not clear whether he will really do so. With the Assembly elections scheduled for next year, the wily politician is keen to ensure smooth transfer of power to his son.

A five times chief minister and a legislator for almost five decades Kalaignar is one of the tallest leaders in Tamil Nadu. He is a celebrated writer who has more than 100 books and 70 film scripts to his credit. His party has been a constituent of every front, which has ruled this country at the centre from National Front to United front to NDA to UPA. He has a clear understanding of coalition politics although he does like to share power in the state.

The problem is not simple. The succession battle is taking an ugly turn already. His younger son Stalin has already been positioned as the deputy chief minister since last May and is also tipped to succeed as the party chief. While the chief minister has made no secret of his preference for his younger son but his elder son and Union minister for chemicals and fertilisers will not allow a smooth succession as he wants the throne.

Dynastic politics is new to Tamil Nadu. When the DMK leader Annadurai died in 1969, the party elected Karunanidhi as his successor. And since then he had been the undisputed leader of the party. His critics point out that Karunanidhi did not promote any other leader except his children. Those who were promising like Vaiko had to go out of the party to find their own space. In the past few years he had made it clear that his two sons, his nephew Dayanidhi Maran and his daughter Kanimozhi had priority over others in claiming cabinet berths either at the centre or in the state.

In last May, when he made his elder son Azhagiri as the central minister, he may have felt relieved that he had resolved the family quarrels but Azhagiri, not finding his feet in Delhi has made the matters worse. There is no doubt that the fight within the family has reached its height. Now the elder son is challenging his father's authority and is not willing to accept anyone else as his leader. He says that as long as Kalaignar is around there can be no other leader and after him Azhagiri would not accept anyone as his leader. This is the first time the DMK patriarch is facing such a challenge and if it had been anyone else, he would have booted him out. So, the octogenarian CM has resigned himself to let the party choose his successor and is buying time to resolve the family problem. Azhagiri has thrown the challenge that he will contest elections if it is democratically conducted.

First of all, the challenge for Karunanidhi comes not from his party but from within the family. All the senior leaders of DMK like Arcot Veeraswamy are as old as the DMK chief and have no role in choosing the successor. With second and third rung leaders far away from decision- making, it is left to the chief minister to sort out the matter. His loyal followers in the party would accept anything he decides.

Secondly, Karunanidhi knows that his carefully nurtured party may split after him if the two sons do not come to some understanding. One way of doing this could be to make Azhagiri the party chief and Stalin as the chief minister. But Stalin is not keen on such a formula as there will be two power centres.

Thirdly, there is urgency in resolving the matter as the state goes for polls next year. There were rumours that the DMK chief would like to prepone the polls to later this year but in any case not much time is left. A divided party will be in no position to face the electoral challenge.

Fourthly, the Congress party and the AIADMK are watching the fun from outside. They are waiting to grab the space in case the DMK falls apart. For AIADMK chief, who has had a running battle with the DMK chief for last four decades, this will be a sweet revenge if she could grab some DMK space. After all both are Dravidian parties and have similar ideology. As far the Congress, it has been riding piggyback for almost five decades on the DMK or the AIADMK and gaining some space in the state is most welcome. Rahul Gandhi has been making visits to the state and also hinted that the Congress should become stronger in the state on its own.

Fifthly, the morale of the party cadre is going down at the family fight. Even ministers and legislators are a worried lot about what will happen in the next elections. If the feud continues, then there will be a telling effect on the ticket distribution and, as both brothers will try to field their loyalists.

The post Karunanidhi scenario is going to be an interesting one. There are not too many options, as the family feud will damage the party. Without Karunanidhi as a unifying force, there are apprehensions that the party may split. The Tamil Nadu polity is already fractured with too many smaller parties like the PMK. MDMK and Vijaya Kant's party flourishing. A split DMK may only add to the confusion. Karunanidhi knows this and is trying to avoid such a split. (IPA Service)