“The Indian electorate has an uncanny wisdom, throwing up surprises in every parliamentary general election. The last elections in 2004 certainly resulted in one of the biggest upset wins for the Congress - a victory when it was down and out… What kind of a surprise will Election-2009 throw up?” (The Tribune, April 15)

The answer has come now - surprises galore, throwing the professional poll analysts and exit channels into confusion, if not oblivion. And what a verdict! For a full month the professional analysts had expounded the “hung parliament” theme - a neck-and-neck race between the incumbent UPA and main challenger NDA. An unstable government, unbridled power grabbing, unprincipled electoral groupings was the name of the game.

But the Indian voter was wiser. Not an unstable government but the prospect of stability at the Centre, and continuity of effective policies, meeting the daunting challenges that this country faces, with a full thrust. A strong Centre is accompanied by a resurgence in the States as Bihar under Nitish Kumar and Orissa under Naveen Patnaik have thrown up. The political scenario and inter-play of political parties can now be cleaned up, ideological principles and meaningful policies placed on a higher pedestal.

The question has to be asked: what produced these spectacular results? In a scenario such as this, there are many factors at work, but two cardinal factors need to be pinpointed as they tend to be underplayed. In uplifting the Congress to its new found stature, a powerful factor that has been at work at the grass-roots countrywide is the performance of the Manmohan Singh government. Not anti-incumbency but the reverse, a performance wave, a Manmohan wave of a sort, has been at work at the grass-roots country-wide.

A “weak” Prime Minister has delivered strong results in key areas. In economics, pursuing the development agenda, and blunting the impact of global recession; in providing succour to weaker segments of society - a Rs 9000 crore loan waiver to farmers, and a massive, the most effective poverty alleviation scheme hitherto, National Rural Employment Scheme (NREGS), even though its full fruits have yet to reach the rural masses; and by far the most effective forward thrust to Indian science and technology, the Indo-US civil nuclear accord, “negotiated brilliantly” by Indian scientists as Strobe Talbot observed, liberating India's nuclear capability from a stifling sanctions regime. This “performance” wave has laid the base for a bigger upswing in these key areas in the years ahead.

Shining like a bright star in the electoral scene has been a second factor at play - the Rahul factor. The contribution of Rahul Gandhi in bringing dynamism, the youth and self-confidence to the Congress has to be underscored. This is most notably displayed in the most populous state - Uttar Pradesh - where the virtually extinct Congress has been restored to a status higher than the BJP and Mayawati's BSP. This miracle has been made possible by Rahul Gandhi's daring to make the Congress stand on its own legs in UP without crutches and shoddy alliances.

While the Congress resurgence as India's leading political party has been a major outcome of election-2009, the states scene has been enlivened by the two ostracized states - declared as the most backward - Bihar and Orissa. The message that has gone out from these states is “Perform or perish”. Not many of the Congress-ruled states can claim to live by this motto, which is the main cause of Congress disability in coping with problems of their respective states. That leads to their poor showing when faced with the regional push and pull. A more balanced Centre-State relationship might hopefully come about as a consequence

The debacle that the CPI(M)-led Left Front has suffered is perhaps the worst in recent memory. CPI(M) leadership, especially its leader Mr Prakash Karat, is mainly responsible for this setback. The former Speaker Mr Somnath Chatterjee has described the CPI(M) leadership as 'narcissistic' - adoring and loving its own heroic image, magnified by the glamorous TV channels in their quest for 'hot news'.

The CPI(M)-led debacle is all-sided - against the Marxist prognostication in the first place, striking a blow against Centre-Left alignment against retrogressive forces. It is ironic but true that the CPI(M) cleavage with the Congress began on the Indo-US civil nuclear accord which gives Indian scientific capability a big forward thrust. While Marx was “above all a scientist”, in Engels words, Mr. Karat's brand of 'strategy and tactics' has little place for such mundane matters as nuclear scientific capability. Lumpen (crorepati) proletarians such as Mayawati have a preference. The Indian political landscape will be poorer because of the Left debacle, only balanced Centre-Left economic and political policies can take India forward, staving off global challenges that the country now faces. In particular, in shaping economic and foreign policies.

It is characteristic of election-2009 that the debacle of the Left and Right - symbolized by the BJP - is simultaneous. However, just as the downslide of the Left creates an imbalance, the (moderate) BJP forces' downfall carries the danger of reviving extreme Rightist resurgence, such as the ideologues of the RSS threaten to implant. Let us hope that the Indian political scenario can be spared such dangers. (IPA Service)