Losing Karnataka election would be too costly for the BJP and PM Modi, since in that event the BJP would be limited to only 10 states in the country, while in 5 they are ruling with alliance partners. Moreover, their Karnataka defeat would bring a stark reality that their communal narrative, on which BJP rule in the Centre and the states heavily depend, has lost its appeal, as has been witnessed during the election campaigns in Karnataka.

The rising popularity of the secular narrative and the Kannada pride campaign of the Congress and the JD (S) respectively during the election campaign has clearly an edge over the communal narrative of the BJP. Perhaps this fact has made our PM Narendra Modi desperate about his own political future as Prime Minister of India seeking reelection for the third time.

Karnataka election results would ultimately depend on how the electorate of the state would finally respond to the two campaigns – one depending on communal line pursued by the BJP and the PM Modi, and the other secular line of the Congress-JD (S) alliance, which would have significant impact on all state elections in 2023 and Lok Sabha election in 2024.

That is why, the political analysts says that Modi is trying to effectively counter the secular and the Kannad pride campaign of the Congress and the JD(S) so that it could be shown to the country that BJP has no threat from any national or regional political party.

It should be noted that 8 states in the country are presently ruled by regional or state level parties, and Congress is ruling in 3 states on its own and in 3 states with alliance partners. Opposition win in Karnataka would not only raise the oppositions tally but also their morale, which could prove to be beginning of the end of BJP rule after 2024 election.

No wonder PM Modi is trying to appeal to the Hindu majority voters by invoking religious slogans and symbols, especially Bajrang Bali. Karnataka has been turned into a communal hotspot, and hence he is trying to polarize the electorate along communal lines. Political parties in opposition have alleged that Modi’s stance has instilled a fear of communal riots among the people in the state since his utterances suggested that the state would undergo communal riots if the Congress or the JD(S) comes to power. Does Karnataka election then remains free and fair?

Election analysts also believe that these are diversionary tactics of PM Modi from the issues of corruption and development and regional imbalance their rule has created in the country.

Communalism in Karnataka in not new, however, the major concern is that it has been increasingly used for political mobilization and violence which have been on the rise especially after 2018 when BJP came to power in the state. Burning of a library in 2021 that promoted Kannada literature and had books from different religions, protests against hijab-wearing students by saffron-shawl clad men across Karnataka in 2021, violence over ‘halal’ meat eaten by Muslims and the banning of Muslim vendors from temple fairs in 2022, the destruction of watermelon cart of a Muslim vendor by Hindutva vigilantes in Dharwad district in 2022, and exclusion of Muslim writers from a government-funded literary fest in 2023, are but only a few examples.

It goes without saying that BJP has been trying to use communalism as a strategy to win majority of Hindu votes in Karnataka, which is home to diverse population which also included Muslims, Christians, Jains, Buddhists and Sikhs. However, PM Modi’s resorting to open communalism in Karnataka has shocked many.

Many explanations has been brought forward by people and all indicate a common reason, that is PM Modi has become desperate. NCP Chief Sharad Pawar has even said, “The voters of Karnataka are upset with the BJP. Across the country, the BJP is on the downslide.”

While criticizing Modi, Pawar said, “We have accepted the concept of secularism. While contesting elections, we take an oath in the name of secularism … During the election, taking the name of a religion, raising its issues, and trying to create a different atmosphere is wrong from the nation’s point of view. The Prime Minister is banking on religion. … I am surprised at this.” (IPA Service)