In a state highly fragmented and fractured on the caste line, even having numerous vertical divisions on sub caste line in the dalit and backward caste ranks, the primary objective should have been to form the rainbow of the caste groups. But an insight into Akhilesh would provide enough evidences that he has not meticulously pursued this politico-electoral line.

Laying out the facts about his party’s alliance with Congress and Bahujan Samaj Party in the 2017 assembly and 2019 general election respectively, he emphasised that he has always been honest and in accommodating alliance partner. “Wherever the Samajwadi Party has been in alliance, you wouldn’t hear of us fighting over seats," he said. But this gives rise to the question; why then the coalition did not yield desired result?

Nevertheless the analysts and experts have their own reasons. They point out that in the caste ridden state, Akhilesh never tries to work as a team and has not succeeded in transferring his votes to the candidates of his allies. After 2019 election Mayawati had come out with this allegation. In 2022 a prominent dalit face Om Prakash Rajbhar, president of the Suheldev Bharatiya Samaj Party (SBSP) had joined hands with Akhilesh. But just after the final results were announced, Rajbhar parted company with Akhilesh.

Even his close aides confide that he leaves his own party candidates to fend for themselves. In 2022 he went to two constituencies; to Rampur and to Mainpuri. His visiting these places had strong political implications and compulsion. Rampur was the traditional seat of Mulayam Singh’s trusted friend Azam Khan and from Mainpuri his wife Dimple Yadav was contesting. He even did not hit the streets on the issues which have been disturbing the poor and common people.

Though Akhilesh eluded confidence that his PDA formula will defeat the BJP-led NDA in the state which sends 80 MPs to the Lower House of Parliament, even his aides don’t subscribe to this and dismiss this as simple rhetoric. They look at it as the game plan of Akhilesh to blunt the move of other opposition leaders to pressurise him to accept Congress as a major power in the state and also not to allow the Congress an upper hand in the matter of seat sharing.

Akhilesh is scared of revival of Congress at the national level. With the Muslims preferring Congress over other parties across India, Akhilesh is scared of this shift in their stance. Azam Khan, Muslim face of the SP and a veteran Muslim leader in his own right, has been cut up with Akhilesh for the ill treatment meted out to him during his crisis. Even the Muslims of western UP are not so inclined towards him.

Like BJP, Akhilesh too has been harping on the fact that Congress lost its ground in the state. But they never talk about the perceptible shift in the Muslim stance towards Congress. In the 2017 Uttar Pradesh Assembly election, Congress contested 114 out of 403 seats, winning 7 seats with 6.25% of the total votes cast. In 2012, it contested in 355 out of 403 seats, winning 28 seats with 11.65% of the total votes cast. In the 2019 Lok Sabha elections, it contested in 67 out of 80 seats in Uttar Pradesh winning 1. In 2014, it contested in 66 out of 80 Sabha seats in Uttar Pradesh winning 2. At a time when the BJP is desperate to bring parties even with 1 per cent support base in its fold, how could Congress be dubbed a non-entity from electoral point of view in UP. In 2019, the SP had only won five Lok Sabha seats and lost two of them — Rampur and Azamgarh — to the BJP in the by-elections later..

Akhilesh’s stand is clearly manifest in his observation that seat distribution should be decided considering which alliance partner is the strongest in a particular state. He has coined a new slogan, “Assi harao, BJP hatao (defeat 80, remove BJP)."

Akhilesh nurses the feeling that by organising some stray training camps he would succeed in challenging the political hegemony of BJP. Only a politically naïve could think of this possibility. No political party, neither the RJD, nor TMC, or Congress can boast of defeating BJP on their own. Had it been the case Nitish Kumar certainly would not have taken the initiative to bring them on a common platform.

With “cadre strengthening" and “booth management" among its top priorities, the Samajwadi Party has recently launched its ‘Mission 2024’ with the aim to win all 80 Lok Sabha Seats of Uttar Pradesh in the 2024 general elections. It also organised a two-day party cadre training camp at Naimisharanya in Sitapur.

In sharp contrast the BJP, though having its government in the state for two consecutive terms, has launched its month long programme “Tiffin Pe Charcha” or “Khane Pe Charcha” on May 30 to mark nine years of the Narendra Modi government at the Centre and to drum up support in Uttar Pradesh for the general elections. The event the leaders will have meals with the people, address awareness campaigns, hold rallies and baithaks in all 80 UP Lok Sabha seats, especially the ones that the BJP lost in 2019. As part of this, the BJP organised a grand training session for more than 600 volunteers and social media influencers.

In fact the internal survey report of the state BJP has motivated Akhilesh to come up with this new slogan “Assi harao, BJP hatao (defeat 80, remove BJP)." The report has put 40 Lok Sabha seats in Red Zone. It has done this despite the fact that the BJP has its government in the state and around 62 Lok Sabha seats out of 80 seats are under its wing. This underlines the amount of fear that grips the BJP leadership. The Party has started fresh initiative to strengthen these seats. It has described Bijnor, Nagina, Saharanpur, Moradabad, Rampur, Sambhal, Amroha, Badaun, Mainpuri, Firozabad, Shravasti, Ambedkar Nagar, Rae Bareli, Azamgarh, Lalganj, Jaunpur, Ghosi, Ghazipur Lok Sabha seats as extremely ‘Red Zone’.

As a naturally corollary to the electoral process, Akhilesh should have initiative to forge an alliance of Pichade, Dalit and Alpasankhyak long back. His efforts launched barely eight months ahead of the Lok Sabha elections would certainly not be able to counter the prowess and skill on the BJP.. Akhilesh would be inviting his perils by ignoring the organisational strength of the RSS, which is the backbone of the BJP.

Akhilesh talks of defeating the BJP on all the 80 seats, but the SP has shortlisted under-40 representatives who would be imparted special training to connect the youths with the SP. Will these cadres be sufficient to create awareness among the people and to make them aware of the Rashtriya Swayamsevak Sangh (RSS) and BJP’s ideology, and how the two have played “divide and rule" on the basis of Hindutva and religion.

Akhilesh instead of turning paranoid towards other parties, must adopt a realistic approach. His slogan may appear to be quite rosy and attractive but it will not help the opposition to defeat the BJP. If he holds that other parties should adopt a flexible attitude towards him, others too expect the same response from him. Akhilesh must remember it is not one way traffic. He must not forget that Yogi Adityanath continues to be the chief minister having a strong hold on the administration and a band of subservient bureaucrats.

Uttar Pradesh is a crucial state for the BJP as the state sends 80 members to Lok Sabha. Narendra Modi will go to any extent to keep the state under his belt. This is the reason that it is luring even the parties which have even less than 1 per cent support base. It will be in greater interest of the opposition if Akhilesh Yadav as the leader of the main opposition party in UP against the BJP be flexible to the Congress and other small parties and work for forming a front with the prime objective of preventing the division of anti-BJP votes in the Lok Sabha polls. (IPA Service)